ALTERNATIVE ENERGY GIACOMO CIAMICIAN SCUOLA ESTIVA SULL ENERGIA. Alessandro Massi Pavan. Sesto Val Pusteria giugno 2014

Transcript

1 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY Alessandro Massi Pavan SCUOLA ESTIVA SULL ENERGIA GIACOMO CIAMICIAN Sesto Val Pusteria giugno 2014

2 OUTLINE Introduction Definitions The energy issue Alternative energy Renewables Power generation Hot water heating/cooling - fuel

3 A SCIENTIST We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.

4 A PHYLOSOPHER It is the greatest of all mistakes to do nothing because you can only do little.

5 A MYSTIC We are all guests, don't use this beautiful planet as a railway-station guest house. Don't say, I will be gone -- after ten minutes my train is coming, so who cares if I leave the waiting room dirty?

6 POLITICIANS PAST AND PRESENT

7 A...

8 10 BILION STEPHEN EMMOTT - Stephen Emmott is Head of Computational Science at Microsoft Research - He leads a broad scientific programme in Cambridge. His lab s research spans molecular biology, immunology and neuroscience, plant biology, climatology, biochemestry, terrestrial and marine ecology, conservation biology, programming life, artificial photosynthesis - Visiting professor at University of Oxford - Visiting professor at University College London

9 10 BILION STEPHEN EMMOTT Earth is home to millions of species. Just one dominates it. Us

10 10 BILION STEPHEN EMMOTT Why are we not doing more about the situation we re in given the scale of the problem and the urgency needed I simply cannot understand. We re spending 8 billion euros at CERN to discover evidence of a particle called the Higgs-Boson. CERN s physicists are keen to tell us it is the biggest, most important experiment on Earth. It isn t. The biggest and most important experiment on Earth is the one we re all conducting, right now, on Earth itself. Only an idiot would deny that there is a limit to how many people our Earth can support. The question is, is it 7 billion, 10 billion or 28 billion? I think we ve already gone past it. Well past it.

11 10 BILION STEPHEN EMMOTT We could change the situation we are now in, probably not by technologizing our way out of it, but by radically changing our behavior. But there is no sign that this is happening,or about to happen. we can rightly call the situation we re in an unprecedented emergency. We urgently need to do something radical to avert a global catastrophe. But I don t think we will...

12 10 BILION STEPHEN EMMOTT I asked one of the most rational, brightest scientists I know a scientist working in this area, a young scientist, a scientist in my lab if there was just one thing he had to do about the situation we face, what would it be? His reply? Teach my son how to use a gun.

13 COMMON UNDERSTANDING? Renewable energy is energy derived from natural processes (e.g. sunlight and wind) that are replenished at a faster rate than they are consumed 1. It is a source of energy that it is not depleted by use, such as water, wind, or solar power 2. Alternative energy is energy fueled in ways that do not use up natural resources or harm the environment 2. Alternative energy is energy that is produced without the burning of fossil fuels. Sometimes this less comprehensive meaning include nuclear. Natural resource: material or substance occurring in nature which can be exploited for economic gain 2. 1: International Energy Agency 2: Oxford Dictionary

14 A VIEW Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21 st century, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21 st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges. A major transformation is therefore required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic future consequences for human and planetary systems. Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

15 A VIEW The needed attributes to achieve sustainable development: availability, access, security, health, climate and environmental protection. An holistic view of the problems must be taken: energy supply is only one of them. With this approach externalities play a big role in determining choice among options. While the local and global challenges and their demands on energy systems are enormous, they can all be met in a timely manner if society want to do so. Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

16 IS ANYTHING MOVING? The foundation is being put in place: - Half (circa 100GW) of the world s new electric generating capacity added during was renewable (71% in EU); - EU electric capacity addition have been over 40% renewables in each year between 2006 and 2010; China addition capacity additions were 38% renewables; - Wind, PV, Hydro accounted for 40%, 30% and 25% respectively. Source: REN21, 2013 REN 23, 2014

17 IS ANYTHING MOVING? The foundation is being put in place: - By the end of 2012 the total renewable power capacity was 1,470GW (crica 1,000 hydro - 25% of the total); - Nuclear power was 400GW bringing alternative power to 1,870GW; - Heating and cooling sector (from biomass, solar and geothermal sources) offers an immense yet mostly untapped potential; - In the transport sector biofuels represent the 3% of global road transportation. Source: REN23, 2014

18 BUT At the same time, the beginning of this grand transformation is obscured by business-as-usual (BAU) thinking and behavior. Also, it tends to be blocked by current decision-making processes, institutions, consumption patterns, interests, and investment patterns that show a lock-in to old development pathways. The transition form the «pervasive old» to the «emerging new» will require continuous and major enhancements in awareness, knowledge, and skills, as well as new institutions, policies and strategies. Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

19 THE ENERGY ISSUE Source: Perez R, Perez M. A fundamental look at energy reserves for the planet. IEA 2009

20 AN EXAMPLE: OIL Average Oil Demand ( ): 100 YEARS TO GO ARE 2,704/100 = 27!!! World Oil Outlook OPEC 2012 Total reserves: 2,704 The Stone Age didn t end because we ran out of stone The Oil Age won t end because we run out of oil! Don Huberts, Shell Hydrogen Source: Perez R, Perez M. A fundamental look at energy reserves for the planet. IEA 2009

21 EVOLUTION OF WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY USE AFTER THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION - Phase 1: shif to coal; - Phase 2: shift to oil and gas - Hydro, biomass and nuclear share of 22% - New renewables hardly discernible Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

22 DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARY ENERGY Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

23 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SHARE, Source: REN21, 2012 REN 23, 2013

24 RENEWABLES: TOP COUNTRIES Source: REN23, 2013

25 MODERN RENEWABLE ENERGY CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES In a broad sense, the term renewable energy refers to biomass, hydro, solar, wind, geothermal and ocean energy. These originate from solar radiation, geothermal heat (interior of the earth) and gravitational energy (mainly from the moon). Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

26 MODERN RENEWABLE ENERGY CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES All renewable sources can be converted to electricity. Only a few can be used to produce fuel directly as well as heat. Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

27 POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLES The primary energy demand in 2011 was 550EJ. Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013, Perez R., Perez M. A fundamental look at energy reserves for the planet, 2009.

28 PROS AND CONS OF RENEWABLES - Diversifying energy carriers; - Reducing pollution - Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions - Improving access to clean energy - Reducing dependence and minimizing spending on imported primary energy - Spurring economic development - Balancing the use of fossils - The spatial energy intensity (J/m 2 ) is often low - Although the energy from REN is often available for free, REN technologies are often quite capital-intensive - LCOE is thus not competitive in the distorted marketplace - Social concerns - Intermittent character Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

29 SMART GRID/RENEWABLE ENERGY Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) REN generation must be handled by a system that was not designed for it - With load and generation forecasting and intelligent loads and demand-side management a [20-50%] of renewables can be cheaply accommodated in the actual system - Storage for more - Today 99% of pumping storage

30 RENEWABLES GLOBAL GROWTH Source: REN21, 2012 REN 23, 2013

31 POWER GENERATION - Hydropower - Wind power - Biomass power - Photovoltaics - Geothermal power - Concentrated solar power (CSP) - Ocean power - Nuclear power

32 ENERGY AND POWER SHARE, % of the new capacity installed in 2012 was from REN - Total REN power capacity was 1,470GW (990GW hydro) - Nuclear power capacity was 400GW 8% Source: REN23, 2013

33 RENEWABLE POWER SECTOR, 2012 (EXCLUDING HYDROPOWER) Source: REN23, 2013

34 RENEWABLE POWER CAPACITY AND GENERATION (EXCLUDING HYDRO) Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

35 RENEWABLE POWER ITALY - The installed capacity doubled in 10 years - The energy produced in 2013 was 100TWh corresponding to the 33% of the total demand. First quarter 2014 was 40% - North 58%, Center 15%, South 27% Source: GSE Rapporto statistico 2011, impianti a fonti rinnovabili Rinnovabili elettriche non fotovoltaiche, 2014

36 POWER BALANCE - ITALY Source: GSE

37 POWER GENERATION ITALY (2012) Source: GSE Rapporto statistico 2012, impianti a fonti rinnovabili >18.000

38 HYDROPOWER WORLD - Regions with mature hydro sector are focused on modernising existing plants - Storage: 140GW (2 new in 2011) Source: REN21, 2013 BP Statistical review of world energy, June Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

39 HYDROPOWER ITALY - North: 80% of the hydropower plants - Last 5 years growth: 4% Source: GSE Rapporto statistico 2011, impianti a fonti rinnovabili - Rinnovabili elettriche non fotovoltaiche, 2014

40 WIND POWER - 45GW in 2012, more than any other technology - Top countries 2012: China 13GW (less than 2011), US 13GW, Germany and India - Off-shore total capacity: 5.4GW - TOTAL 2013: 318GW Source: REN23, 2013

41 WIND POWER - ITALY - In 2011 the growth was 5% - Third REN technology; - Average size is 8.6MW - In TWh (5.3%) - The majority of the plants are installed in the South (Puglia, Campania and Sicily represent the 56% of the total) Source: GSE Rapporto statistico 2011, impianti a fonti rinnovabili - Rinnovabili elettriche non fotovoltaiche, 2014

42 BIOMASS POWER WORLD AND ITALY - 6GW installed in US is the leader market - In EU: Germany, Sweden and UK Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) GSE Rapporto statistico 2011, impianti a fonti rinnovabili Rinnovabili elettriche non fotovoltaiche, 2014

43 PHOTOVOLTAICS - 29GW in 2012 (10 times more than 2006 and as 2011) - 50% of growth in the period Top countries: Germany, China, Italy - End of 2013: 120GW Source: REN23, 2013

44 PHOTOVOLTAICS - ITALY - 273% of growth in 2011, 28% in 2012, 8.8%; in plants : the first 305MWp without incentives Source: GSE Rapporto statistico 2011, impianti a fonti rinnovabili Rinnovabili elettriche non fotovoltaiche, 2014

45 GEOTHERMAL POWER - Modest expansion in Rrepresents the 2% of the total REN - In Italy the growth during 2011 was zero Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) GSE Rapporto statistico 2011, impianti a fonti rinnovabili - REN23, 2013

46 CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER OCEAN POWER - CSP: Spain and US are the leader countries - In 2011 doubled the total capacity in South Korea Source: GEA 23, 2014

47 GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER - IEEA s projections are in the range [ %/year] between 2009 and Given the likelihood of an increase on LCOE, the growth should be lower Source: data from IAEA - Paris, 9 January In the 1970s was expected to quickly become the dominant generator of electrical power. But safety requirement increased the costs so that the history has been different.

48 NUCLEAR COSTS A CASE STUDY Source: data from IAEA - Paris, 9 January During 1970s and 1980s when France and US brought most of their plants online, the capital costs increased because: - Construction on site - Lack of standardization - Quality standards increase - Regulatory requirements become more stringent - Delays in completion

49 POWER FROM ALTERNATIVE SOURCES Source: data from IAEA - Paris, 9 January REN21, 2013

50 POWER FROM ALTERNATIVE SOURCES Source: Renewable power generation costs in 2012: an overview. IRENA, 2012

51 HOT WATER/HEATING (COOLING) Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

52 BIOMASS ENERGY - Over 10% of global primary energy supply is from biomass that is the fourth largest source of energy (follows oil, coal, natural gas) - Primary biomass feedstock is usually in a solid form that can be processed into solid biomass fuels (e.g. pellets), gaseous (e.g. biogas, biomethane) or liquid (ethanol, biodiesel) - ¾ is burned in a very inefficient devices - The growth during was 1.4% Source: REN21, 2013

53 BIOFUELS - They represent the 3% of global transport fuels - Ethanol is mostly from corn and sugar cane - Biodiesel is from virgin plants oils, used cooking oil, animal fats and fish oil - Bioethanol top countries: US (63%), Brazil (24%) - Biodiesel top countries: US and some in EU Source: REN21, 2013

54 PELLETS - 85% of pellets are burned in Europe (Sweden 20%) - The growth in 2011 was 8% with respect to In Italy the 77% are burned in the North - In Italy the production of the South is more or less zero Source: REN21, 2013

55 SOLAR COLLECTORS - Used for hot water and space heating - The global capacity was 232GWth in The installed power in 2011 was 50GWth Source: REN21, 2013

56 GRAZIE PER L ATTENZIONE! Alessandro Massi Pavan apavan@units.it Scuola estiva sull energia «GIACOMO CIAMICIAN» Sesto Val Pusteria giugno 2014