SCENARI CLIMATICI, IMPATTI E ADATTAMENTO

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Gioacchino Pugliese
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1 SCENARI CLIMATICI, IMPATTI E ADATTAMENTO NELL AMBIENTE ALPINO DELLA LOMBARDIA Antonio Ballarin Denti Università Cattolica di Brescia Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente Convenzione delle Alpi ARGE ALP, Bolzano, 23 settembre 2010

Brescia Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente Fondazione Lombardia

2 Institutions and Universities: ARPA Lombardia Associazione Rete di Punti Energia (CESTEC) Centro Comune di Ricerca (CE) Comitato Glaciologico Italiano Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Consorzio Poliedra ERSAF Lombardia Fondazione ENI E. Mattei Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente Politecnico di Milano Regione Lombardia Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Università degli Studi di Milano Università degli Studi di Milano Bicocca Università degli Studi di Parma Università degli Studi della Tuscia Leaders Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente (project coordinator) Regione Lombardia ARPA Lombardia Supporters Regione Lombardia Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente APAT (ISPRA) ERSAF Lombardia Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

Mattei Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente Politecnico di Milano Regione Lombardia Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Università degli Studi di Milano Università degli Studi di

3 Climate change an integrated framework Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

4 The Kyoto Project, a further evolution of the Air Quality Regional Plan (PRQA), aimed to achieve the following objectives: Climate studies Analysis of climate evolution and current trends in Lombardy also considering the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events Emissions Implementation and update, of the INEMAR emission inventoryforthesixghgssetbythekyotoprotocolandeu policies Flows, sinks and stocks of GHGs Improvement of monitoring networks for GHGs emissions and net carbon fluxes between atmosphere, soil and agro forestry systems in Lombardy Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

Implementation and update, of the INEMAR emission inventoryforthesixghgssetbythekyotoprotocolandeu policies Flows, sinks and stocks of GHGs

5 Impacts Evaluation of economic, environmental and health externalities linked with the present climate change Scenarios, policies and measures Emission trends as a function of different economic, social, technological scenarios and emission reduction policies. Evaluation protocols for local actions to be undertaken in different sectors involved in GHGs emissions Public communication Web site with links with institutions, research bodies, companies and general public Web Site: Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

Evaluation protocols for local actions to be undertaken in different sectors involved in GHGs emissions Public communication Web site

6 Regional climatology

7 Temperature deviations in K from 20 th century mean for Italian areas located between Latitude(N) and 4-18 Longitude(E), extracted from the Int. J. Climatol. 21: (2001). Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

4-18 Longitude(E), extracted from the Int. J. Climatol.

8 Temperature VARIAZIONI DELLE TEMPERATURE MEDIE ANNUALI E STAGIONALI NEL PERIODO RISPETTO AL PERIODO DI RIFERIMENTO

9 Precipitations VARIAZIONE DELLE PRECIPITAZIONI ANNUALI STAGIONALI NEL PERIODO RISPETTO AL PERIODO DI RIFERIMENTO

10 Running trend analysis of temperature and precipitations in Lombardy Region ANALISI DELLA TENDENZA TEMPORALE DELLE TEMPERATURE E DELLE PRECIPITAZIONI MEDIE ANNUALI DELLA LOMBARDIA

11 Frequency and intensity of extreme events

12 Trend in the number of intense precipitation events

13 Seasonal cloud cover in northern Italy Winter Spring Summer Autumn

14 Alpine glaciers FORNI Glacier

15 Dynamics of Lombardy Glaciers

16 Emissions Inventory

17 Activity rate (A) Research investigations into 70 societies and companies INEMAR regional emission inventory Emission Factors (FE) Corinair data Lombardy Region data Methodology Point Sources Emissions Census of about 300 plants (energy industries, waste disposals,refineries, other industrial plants) Residential Plants Emissions Q = A FE Q=Annual emission of pollutant for each pollutant and activity according to European classification SNAP 97 Area sources emissions (agriculture, industry,...) Total Emission Visualization by Nebula LTK Forest Emissions based on Corinair methodology Road Transport Emissions Based on Copert II methodology Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

A FE Q=Annual emission of pollutant for each pollutant and activity according to European classification SNAP 97 Area sources emissions (agriculture, industry,.

18 Percentage of greenhouse gas emissions in Lombardy in

19 GHGs emissions in Lombardy year 2001 by sector (%)

20 GHG Emissions variation in Lombardy

21 GHGs fluxes, sinks, stocks

22 Ecosystem productivity in Lombardy

23 Protocol for mapping the C sink in the Lombardy Region

24 Estimate of carbon stocks in the soils of Lombardy

25 Carbon flux measurements (Eddy covariance) Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

26 Net Ecosystem carbon Exchange during the year Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

27 Influence of ozone pollution (stomatal flux) on GPP

28 Impacts

29 Aims 1. Draw a picture of impacts due to climate changes in Lombardy region particularly produced by an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events (rains and temperatures) 2. Estimate external costs of climate changes through economic and non economic evaluations of impacts of natural and anthropogenic environment 3. Estimate environmental, social and economic effects produced by the implementation of the adaptation policies

30 Considered potential risks: Injuries to human health produced by heat waves Damages to agriculture produced by drought and meteorological extreme events Damages to infrastructures produced by flood and hydrogeological accidents Increase of energy costs for heating and air conditioning Effects of terrestrial and water ecosystems

31 Synoptic scheme of direct and indirect impact Land use Use of fossil fuels Increase in greenhouse gases Meteorological and climatic variables Water extreme weather events NATURAL SYSTEMS Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Ecosystem Land SOCIETY AND ECONOMY Energy Agricolture Health Infrastructure tourism

32 Natural Ecosystems: Natura 2000 network

33 Loss of habitat vocation for ibex in Adamello Park

34 Assessment of the sensitivity of different crops to climate change

35 Risk map by forest fires in Lombardy

38 Impacts on land structures Fondazione Lombardia per l Ambiente

39 Economic losses and insurance costs caused by extreme climatic events Compensation amount Total losses

40 Costs for one ton of CO 2 reduction Immediate industrial costs Costs associated to a decrease of production required to reduce one ton of CO 2 emitted Costs associated to structural actions Costs associated to modifications of operating management (es. fuel switching, ) Social - environmental costs avoided Global Environmental Costs GHGs (CO 2, CH 4, CFC, ecc.) Local Environmental Costs Land use changes Pollution (NO x, SO 2, O 3, PTS, CO, ecc.) Loss of crop productivity Material goods damages Health damages

41 Scenarios and policies

42 Scenarios and policies: aims 1. Definition of an emission reduction objective at regional level. 2. Build-up of emission trend scenarios related to different reduction objectives. 3. Outline of direct and indirect economic policies aimed to reduction objectives. 4. Evaluation of technology policies (focus on buildings, transport, biomass, biofuels) 5. Guide-lines for Regional Mitigation Plans 42

43 Methodology The econometric model MARKAL-TIMES has been applied to different scenarios to evaluate sectorial economic regional policies and their cost & benefits effects on emissions reduction objectives 43

44 Conclusions The backgrounds generated by the model suggest that: 1) some measures already in place, if continued, will contribute significantly to reducing CO2 emissions but not enough 2) the alternative Background 1 shows the extreme difficulty / impossibility of reducing emissions of 1990 within 2020 (37% vs. 2005) 3) 3) the alternative Background 2 envisages a feasible way to reduce CO2 emissions about 20% compared to 2005 It remains necessary to promote in an efficient and radical way the policies to reduce demand 44

45 grazie per l attenzione

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