SERVIZI ITALIA. 28 Novembre Equity Update. Sector: Industrial. Antonio Tognoli

Transcript

1 28 Novembre 2012 Equity Update Target Price: 8,6 Sector: Industrial Rating: BUY SERVIZI ITALIA Year Sales EBITDA EBIT Adj Adj Adj P/CF P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT DPS Dividend m m m Net Profit EPS P/E x x x x x Yield % ,1 56,8 18,9 11,6 0,716 4,2 1,6 1,1 2,6 7,8 0,25 8,3% ,0 54,5 10,2 3,4 0,209 14,3 1,7 1,1 2,9 15,3 0,25 8,3% 2012F 205,0 58,4 16,0 6,5 0,330 9,1 1,7 0,8 2,5 9,2 0,12 4,0% 2013F 210,0 61,9 18,4 8,5 0,311 9,7 1,6 0,8 2,5 8,3 0,12 4,0% 2014F 220,0 65,5 21,3 10,5 0,385 7,8 1,5 0,7 2,1 6,6 0,15 5,0% Old New Rating BUY BUY Risk Rating Low Low Target ( ) 8,9 8,6 Market Data ( ) Close Price ( ) 3,1 Share Outstanding (m) 27,2 Market Cap. ( /m) 84,3 Market Float (%) 42,9 Avg daily Vol. (000s) 28,9 Past 12 Months Max 5,1 Min 2,24 Performance 3 M 12 M Absolute 10,3-35,1 Relative 6,9-41, / 24/ FTSE MIB Servizi It Risultati 9M12 leggermente inferiori alle nostre stime. I ricavi sono cresciuti del 5.7% (0.5% a parità di perimetro di consolidamento). Tutte e tre le linee di business hanno contribuito in modo positivo alla crescita. L EBITDA è cresciuto del 10,2% YoY raggiungendo 46,2 mln, così come in crescita è risultato l EBITDA margin (29,5% contro 28.3% ai 9M11). A parità di area di consolidamento l incremento dell EBITDA si attesta al 4,5%. Il miglioramento è attribuibile all avvio dello stabilimento di Genova Bolzaneto e alla chiusura dei siti di Caleppio di Settala (MI) e Genova Porto. L EBIT è cresciuto del 63.3% raggiungendo 14.6 mln, con un EBIT margin del 9.5% (9.1% a parità di area di consolidamento). Fine tuning delle stime A seguito del risultati dei 9M12 e dell aumento del capitale sociale, abbiamo effettuato un fine tuning delle stime In particolare abbiamo ridotto il fatturato del 15% e l EBITDA del 9% l anno rispettivamente (complice la spending review varata dal Governo). Abbiamo quindi ridotto i debiti finanziari netti attesi per il FY12, che risultano ora pari a 65.8 mln ( 83 mln la stima precedente). La posizione finanziaria netta, pari a 61,1 mln ( 74,9 mln al 31/12/2011), risente positivamente dell incasso derivante dall aumento del capitale sociale effettuato nel mese di luglio La PFN al 1H12 era pari ad 75,1 mln. Dopo la chiusura del IIIQ12 è stato perfezionato l atto di fusione per incorporazione della controllata totalitaria Padana Everest S.r.l. in Servizi Italia S.p.A. L efficacia civilistica della fusione decorre dal 1 novembre A partire da tale data la società incorporante, Servizi Italia è subentrata in tutti i rapporti giuridici attivi e passivi facenti capo alla società incorporata, Padana Everest. In 29 ottobre 2012 in attuazione del programma di acquisto di azioni proprie la società ha comunicato che detiene azioni (0,59 del capitale sociale). Valutatazione: Buy, TP a 8,6 (da 8,9 rettificato) and low risk (unchanged). La nostra valutazione (50% DCF con un aumento della componente E/D+E per effetto dell aumento del capital sociale e 50% multipli che tengono conto del fattore di rettifica) risulta pari a 8.6 per azione.valutation: Al nostro target price di 8.6 per azione, Servizi Italia continuerebbe a trattare a sconto di circa il 40% sull EV/EBITDA e EV/EBIT del F rispetto alla media dei peers del nostro campione. Crediamo che lo sconto non sia corretto per una società che opera in un settore non ciclico con una buona visibilità del business. Siamo inoltre convinti che la recente disciplina dei pagamenti della Pubblica Amministrazione, unita ad una possibile revisione dell imposizione fiscale (IRAP) entro il prossimo anno, possa favorire le società a forte intensità di mano d opera. Inoltre, crediamo che la diversificazione geografica su un mercato come quello Brasiliano caratterizzato da una forte crescita, sia in grado di ridurre ulteriormente il rischio imprenditoriale. 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 31/ 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/ 11/ 12/ 13/ 14/ 15/ 16/ 17/ 18/ 19/ 20/ 21/ 22/ 23/ Antonio Tognoli antonio.tognoli@integrae.it

2 Fig. 1 Profit & Loss Sales 195,1 197,0 205,0 210,0 220,0 Value of production 199,5 202,0 205,0 210,0 220,0 Raw Materials (19,7) (19,9) (20,3) (20,8) (21,8) Services (65,6) (67,6) (68,2) (68,5) (71,8) Personnel costs (55,4) (57,1) (57,0) (57,9) (60,0) Other operating charges/write off (2,0) (2,9) (1,0) (1,0) (1,0) EBITDA 56,8 54,5 58,4 61,9 65,5 EBITDA margin% 29,1% 27,7% 28,5% 29,5% 29,8% Depreciations (37,9) (44,3) (42,4) (43,4) (44,1) EBIT 18,9 10,2 16,0 18,4 21,3 EBIT margin % 9,7% 5,2% 7,8% 8,8% 9,7% Net Financial Charges (2,2) (2,8) (4,5) (3,5) (3,0) Other 0,2 0,4 0,0 0,0 (0,0) Extraordinaries/Others 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Pre-Tax Profit 16,9 7,8 11,5 14,9 18,3 Taxes (5,0) (4,3) (4,6) (6,0) (7,3) Tax-Rate 29,6% 55,2% 40,0% 40,0% 40,0% Minorities (0,3) (0,1) (0,4) (0,5) (0,5) Net Profit 11,6 3,4 6,5 8,5 10,5 2 Servizi Italia 28 Novembre pag. 2

3 Fig. 2 Assets & Liabilities Net Working Capital (8,2) (7,2) 1,5 7,0 1,0 % on sales (0,0) (0,0) 0,0 0,0 0,0 Net Fixed Assets 138,1 151,8 155,2 165,2 169,4 NET INVESTMENTS 129,9 144,6 156,7 172,2 170,4 Pers Sev. and Tax Funds (9,3) (7,0) (6,0) (5,0) (4,0) NET CAPITAL EMPLOYED 139,2 151,6 162,7 177,2 174,4 SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 73,3 76,7 96,9 105,4 115,9 NET FINANCIAL POSITION (65,9) (74,9) (65,8) (71,8) (58,5) COVER 139,2 151,6 162,7 177,2 174,4 Fig. 3 Cash flow statement N.F.P. at year beginning (48,7) (65,9) (74,9) (65,8) (71,8) Cash Flow 49,5 47,7 48,9 51,9 54,6 NWC Change 6,5 (1,0) (8,7) (5,5) 6,0 PSF and Tax F.Allocations 0,2 (2,3) (1,0) (2,0) (1,0) Operating Cash Flow 56,2 44,4 39,2 44,4 59,6 Capital Expenditures (62,6) (43,8) (50,0) (45,0) (45,0) Financial Investments (15,4) (3,0) 0,0 0,0 0,0 Sale of Fixed Assets 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Free Cash Flow (21,8) (2,4) (10,8) (0,6) 14,6 Dividends (3,1) (4,4) (4,4) (4,4) (1,4) Change in Equity 0,0 0,0 25,3 0,0 0,0 Others 7,7 (2,2) (1,0) (1,0) 0,1 CHG IN NFP (17,2) (9,0) 9,1 (6,0) 13,3 N.F.P. at year end (65,9) (74,9) (65,8) (71,8) (58,5) 3 Servizi Italia 28 Novembre pag. 3

4 Disclosure Pursuant to Article 69 ET SEQ. of Consob (Italian Securities % Exchange Commission) Regulation No /1999 Analyst/s certification The analyst(s) which has/have produced the following analyses hereby certifies/certify that the opinions expressed herein reflect their own opinions, and that no direct and/or indirect remuneration has been, nor shall be received by the analyst(s) as a result of the above opinions or shall be correlated to the success of investment banking operations. INTEGRAE SPA is comprised of the following analysts who have gained significant experience working for INTEGRAE and other intermediaries: Antonio Tognoli. Neither the analysts nor any of their relatives hold administration, management or advising roles for the Issuer. Antonio Tognoli is current Vice President of Associazione Italiana Analisti Finanziari AIAF and Vice President of Associazione Nazionale Private Investment Banking ANPIB. Disclaimer This publication was produced by INTEGRAE SIM SpA. INTEGRAE SIM SpA is licensed to provide investment services pursuant to Italian Legislative Decree n. 58/1998, Resolution n of March 29 th INTEGRAE SIM SpA performs the role of corporate broker for the financial instruments issued by the company covered in this report. INTEGRAE SIM SpA is distributing this report in Italian and in English, starting from the date indicated on the document, to approximately 300 qualified institutional investors by post and/or via electronic media, and to nonqualified investors through the Borsa Italiana website and through the leading press agencies. Unless otherwise indicated, the prices of the financial instruments shown in this report are the prices referring to the day prior to publication of the report. INTEGRAE SIM SpA will continue to cover this share on a continuing basis, according to a schedule which depends on the circumstances considered important (corporate events, changes in recommendations, etc.), or useful to its role as specialist. The table below, shows INTREGRAE SIM SpA s recommendation, target price and risk issued during the last 12 months: Date Recommendation Target Price Risk Comment 13/9/11 Buy 9.0 Low 1H11 Results 27/12/11 Buy 9.0 Low ZBM Acquisition 29/3/12 Buy 9.0 Low FY11 Results 30/3/12 Buy 9.0 Low Capital Increase 4/7/12 Buy 9.0 Low Brazilian Acquisition The information and opinions contained herein are based on sources considered reliable. INTEGRAE SIM SpA also declares that it takes all reasonable steps to ensure the correctness of the sources considered reliable; however, INTEGRAE SIM SpA shall not be directly and/or indirectly held liable for the correctness or completeness of said sources. The most commonly used sources are the periodic publications of the company (financial statements and consolidated financial statements, interim and quarterly reports, press releases and periodic presentations). INTEGRAE SIM SpA also makes use of instruments provided by several service companies (Bloomberg, Reuters, JCF), daily newspapers and press in general, both national and international. INTEGRAE SIM SpA generally submits a draft of the analysis to the Investor Relator Department of the company being analyzed, exclusively for the purpose of verifying the correctness of the information contained therein, not the correctness of the assessment. INTEGRAE SIM SpA has adopted internal procedures able to assure the independence of its financial analysts and that establish appropriate rules of conduct for them. This document is provided for information purposes only. Therefore, it does not constitute a contractual proposal, offer and/or solicitation to purchase and/or sell financial instruments or, in general, solicitation of investment, nor does it constitute advice regarding financial instruments. INTEGRAE SIM SpA does not provide any guarantee that any of the 4 Servizi Italia 28 Novembre pag. 4

5 forecasts and/or estimates contained herein will be reached. The information and/or opinions contained herein may change without any consequent obligation of INTEGRAE SIM SpA to communicate such changes. Therefore, neither INTEGRAE SIM SpA, nor its directors, employees or contractors, may be held liable (due to negligence or other causes) for damages deriving from the use of this document or the contents thereof. Conflicts of interest, including potential conflicts and related organizational measures are set forth in this disclaimer section. Rating system The BUY, HOLD and SELL ratings are based on the expected total return (ETR absolute performance in the 12 months following the publication of the analysis, including the ordinary dividend paid by the company), and the risk associated to the share analyzed. The degree of risk is based on the liquidity and volatility of the share, and on the rating provided by the analyst and contained in the report. Due to daily fluctuations in share prices, the expected total return may temporarily fall outside the proposed range. Rendimento Totale Atteso ETR per differenti categorie di rischio e di rating Rating Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk BUY ETR >= 7.5% ETR >= 10% ETR >= 15% HOLD -5% < ETR < 7.5% -5% < ETR < 10% 0% < ETR < 15% SELL ETR <= -5% ETR <= -5% ETR <= 0% U.R. N.R. Rating e/o target price Under Review Stock Not Rated The methods that INTEGRAE SIM SpA prefers to use for value the company under analysis and the Expected Total Return are those which are generally used, such as the market multiples method which compares average multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, and other) of similar shares and/or sectors, and the traditional financial methods (DCF, DDM, EVA etc). For financial securities (banks and insurance companies) INTEGRAE SIM SpA tends to use methods based on comparison of the ROE and the cost of capital (embedded value for insurance companies). The estimates and opinions expressed in the publication may be subject to change without notice. Any copying and/or redistribution, in full or in part, directly or directly, of this document are prohibited, unless expressly authorized. Price, target price and rating history (also see table above) in the last 12 months: 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Close Price (EUR) Target price 5 Servizi Italia 28 Novembre pag. 5