WHAT AFTER THE TSUNAMI OF : RECOVERY, INFLATION, STAGFLATION?

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1 Università degli Studi di Brescia Dipartimento di Economia Aziendale Arnaldo CANZIANI WHAT AFTER THE TSUNAMI OF : RECOVERY, INFLATION, STAGFLATION? Paper numero 123 Dicembre 2011

2 WHAT AFTER THE TSUNAMI OF : RECOVERY, INFLATION, STAGFLATION? Or financial Causes, monetary Therapies, real Effects by Arnaldo CANZIANI Faculty of Law, University of Brescia (Italy) paper accepted at the 3 rd ALL CHINA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, APEC Study Center, City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong, December 14-16, 2009

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4 Abstract Since 1980, the abundance of public expenditure (in the USA also to "solve" the crises of the '80ies and '90ies), deregulation, and disputable financial theories as well, gave life along years i) to real changes in the attitudes of the public towards both consumerism and debt, ii) to new risky policies by financial intermediaries. The new set of expectations by the public, the abundance of liquidity, and the irresponsiveness of financial agents (from sub-prime credits to the so-called financial "neutralization" of risk) were among the most important causes of the Tsunami of , the diagnosis of which is a wellknown one spite of different political accents, weighting of factors, and the protection of vested interest (HYYTINEN and TAKALO, 2004; KAUFMAN and SEELING, 2002). The crisis was "solved" once more in the Anglo-Saxon world in particular by massive injections of liquidity to rescue failed banks, rotten industrial firms and insurance companies, many of them operating borderline, or even against the law. Here too, problems, risks and consequences are well-known ones (BERNAUER and KOUBI, 2004; BOISSAY, 2006; CALOMIRIS and MASON, 2003). After some wait and see, signals of recovery are at sight mid Anyway, problems will emerge in : the abundance of liquidity will be reabsorbed by Central Banks, so cutting the (potential) inflation but blocking the recovery? Or will it remain into the system, causing both recovery and inflation? Or even, under mixed expectations, will it act as a silk-spin, not being able of any further pressure but giving life to stagflation?

5 Summary Prefazione Introduction The economic growth between the end of the Twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first one due to deficit spending and productive efficiency The crisis of 2008 and its causes, among them financiarization The "solution" of the crisis, or liquidity and debts. The risks of both The mid-term effects of crisis and therapies: recovery, stagnation, stagflation? Some further reflections on liquidity, inter-bank solidarity, and Central Banks Conclusions Post-fazione Bibliography... 35

6 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? Prefazione Nelle scienze sociali, il presente continuato ingorgo di pubblicazioni non tutte commendevoli, anzi sempre più sofisticate e via via meno euristiche pare dovuto a un insieme di fattori fra i quali i) l'odierno abbondare di truppe variamente accademiche, ii) la dispersione microanalitica ed empiricista che ci proviene dalle abitudini anglosassoni, iii) il desiderio di emergere e la ricerca spasmodica ahinoi di "successo" e di "visibilità", iv) l'infittirsi di incontri, seminarî, convegni, congressi per ragioni tanto scientifiche quanto pubblicitarie, v) infine l'ausilio infinito di motori di ricerca, banche-dati, documenti, articoli e working papers on line dai quali potersi facilmente e rapidamente diciamo così <ispirare>. Il modus operandi dello scienziato sociale non certo del copista o dell'arrivista accademico è ovviamente altro, e Benedetto Croce ce lo insegna dal : "... l'erudito che sa il fatto suo... lavora spesso per anni e anni, tacito e attento, percorrendo una congerie di libri e di documenti; e vien fuori, in ultimo, con un libro breve o con una memorietta di poche pagine. Ma quel libro o quella memorietta prendono la questione al punto in cui essa realmente si trova... e la fanno progredire di uno o più passi.". Così ad esempio Edmund Husserl, che era Husserl, con tutto quel che pubblicò in vita, e di qualità sovrana, lasciò anche inediti, dei quali evidentemente non era soddisfatto: sì, lascio pagine di inediti. Per qual motivo allora, con quel che si è appena detto, e con due anni di ritardo, pubblicare il paper che segue, non solo senz'altro perfettibile, ma anzi non-risolutivo del tema? Le motivazioni valgono forse poco, ma sono dovute ad alcuni semplici rilievi pratici, fra i quali i seguenti: i) il lavoro sembra esprimere una compatta sintesi descrittiva, forse di qualche ausilio per brevità e per complemento della vulgata; ii) le conclusioni parziali del medesimo sembrano tuttora accettabili, anzi l'a. quasi incredulo di sè stesso crederebbe di poter ritenere in parte valide anche le previsioni allora effettuate; iii) i dati possono parere obsoleti, ma può facilmente aggiornarli il Lettore medesimo, così confermando o modificando le ipotesi in tema di trend; iv) infine, poiché per ragioni sia finanziarie sia organizzative il paper, pur accettato, 1 La mancanza di senso scientifico e i libri italiani di filosofia, poi in Cultura e vita morale, Bari, Laterza, 1913, p. 76 1

7 Arnaldo Canziani non venne poi presentato in corpore, era questo l'unico modo per renderlo disponibile agli eventuali interessati (e, diciamoci la verità, per "guadagnare punti" ai fini delle classifiche Anvur, come da bambini con le figurine). Con queste premesse e limiti, e limitati obiettivi contingenti, se ne propongono i contenuti al Lettore nella forma in cui esso fu scritto originariamente, solo corretto qualche fatale refuso. Brescia, Università, dicembre 2011 l'autore 2

8 "I finanzieri vivono in un mondo di fantasie. I 5 dollari li conteggiano come fossero 100; e ciò significa che ogni finanziere, ogni banchiere, ogni operatore di Borsa è al 95% un alienato. Ed è nelle mani di questi pazzi che voi affidate il destino della vostra nazione!" (G.B. SHAW, Discorso a New York, 11 aprile 1933) "Financiers live in a world of illusion. Every five dollar they count as a hundred dollars; and that means that every financier, every banker, every stockbroker, is 95% a lunatic. And it is in the hands of these lunatics that you leave the fate of your country!" (G.B. SHAW, Address, New York, April 11, 1933) 3

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10 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? 1. Introduction According both with our experience, and every existing indicator, after the two oil-crises of 1973 and 1980 respectively, and especially after the 1 st USA-Iraki war of 1990, the world experimented in general although asymmetrically from country to country an unexpected economic growth. As it appears in Figure 1, the World Gross Product grew from nearly 20 trillions US Dollars to nearly 35, with i) a sharply increasing role for the United States of America (24,5 to 26,4 per cent), ii) a larger decrease for Europe (31,1 to 27,2 per cent), iii) the substantial keeping the positions by Japan (17 to 16,7 per cent) and iv) a dramatic upsurge of East Asia (3,1 to 7,4 per cent). Figure 1 - The World Gross Product (real) and its Contributors (World Bank Data - trillions of US$) That growth resulted in large advantages for most countries, especially the ones capable to take part in the new directions of international trade flows and world demand, were those ones of mass consumer-goods, HR&D productions, (financial) services or luxury brands. Due to these reasons, for some countries in particular China to mention but one the whole process resulted in large modernization processes on one side, in the hoarding of trade surpluses (and foreign currencies reserves) on the other. For others countries, on the contrary, it ended with larger and larger trade deficits, not only due to energetic reasons. 5

11 Arnaldo Canziani Due to the aforementioned evolution, at world level three groups of countries could be individuated, and broadly speaking subdivided as follows (see Figure 2): a. areas whose exports, mostly raw materials, represent at least per cent of trade-flows (Africa; Latin America; Russian Federation and others former USSR countries); b. areas matching their trade balances, or so, in some cases with internal differences (North America, East Asia); c. areas whose imports account for the per cent of trade-flows, this being due to such factors as industrial decaying on one side, relative strength of their currency on the other (Euro Europe). Figure 2 - International Trade Flows (goods) (Mo nde Diplomatique Annual 2008 billions US$) Anyway, paying more detailed an attention, the story of both imports and exports is a much more interesting one, and a self-speaking one as well. Looking in fact to Figure 3, one can appreciate the combination of the socalled key-actors in the field: i) countries exporting oil (Norway, Arab Countries, Russia), ii) countries being heavy exporters of manufactured goods (Japan, China, Germany), countervailed by iii) a small number of big importers (European Union, Germany apart; Great Britain; the United States of America on top of them). 6

12 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? Figure 3 - Deficits and Surpluses of the Balance of Trade (goods) (billions of US$ - UN data from Monde Diplomatique Annual 2008 ) The most important causal factors of these dynamics, as well as their drivers, are well-known ones in the international economic literature, spite of the different weighting of them according to different Authors, and national cultures. In 2. two among them namely deficit spending and productive efficiency are specially underlined, to pass rapidly in para. 3. and 4. to the crisis of 2008 in its causes and (so-called) solutions. 2. The economic growth between the end of the Twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first one due to deficit spending and productive efficiency The reason most commonly alleged in some Western countries for the abovementioned growth a true one as a matter of fact is the coming in power of China, its never-ending capability of selling to the world incredible amounts of both consumer and industrial products, of growing a 7

13 Arnaldo Canziani quality at any moment, its uninterrupted fast growth a truly astonishing one (see Figure 4). Figure 4 - People s Republic of China nominal GNP (billions of RMB) (Hitotsubashi compilation on official China data) This being a well-known story, and a debated topic as well, we limit ourselves here to the following highlights: i) the development of China springs from the "four modernizations" policy of Mr. Deng Xiao Ping in the 1980ies: central, authoritative guidance and free initiative as well; ii) that development sprang also from the clever combination of both modern technology and low salaries (once compared with North America and Europe) forged in an export-lead growth model (the value of its exports amounted to 20 percent of GNP in 2001, to 36 percent in 2007); iii) anyway, it was also due to (large) foreign investments by Western countries and by China itself, and strong exchanges of technology, mainly one-way. Those successful efforts, and results, show once more the effectiveness of technological progress and gains in productivity, once applied to serve i) the world demand with competitive an effectiveness, ii) the internal one with larger and larger an attention. Anyway as global offer needs effective demand, inventories and lags apart the new role played by PRC (and others countries as well, BRICs included) within the international arena was made undoubtly possible by: 8

14 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? a. the growth of world trade as a whole, and the deeper and deeper productive-commercial-financial interaction today called globalization; b. the presence of the aforementioned <big importers>: the European Union, but especially the United States of America as a single country, c. the keeping the value of China Yuan relatively low also due to the buying of US Dollars, these ones utilized in turn to buy USA Treasuries. The never-ending demand for goods by Western countries has now to be explained, enlightening its origins, as it was due to few main factors, variously characterizing both some European countries and the USA. For some European countries Italy among them it dealt in fact with a double process of de-industrialization as well as deficit spending, both giving life to deficits in trade balances. The same was true, at much higher a level, for the US, this country still representing more than a quarter of World National Product, where personal consumption continued to represent the bulk of the GNP (the expenditure of families accounts currently for the 70% of their GNP) (Figure 5). Figure 5 - USA real GNP and its Components (Cabinet Office Data) 9

15 Arnaldo Canziani Anyway, we consider relevant here to pay the utmost attention to the public finance of the same countries. In this respect, we must remember the repeated and never-ending public deficits in both the annual accounts and budgets of most Western countries from the U.S.A. to Italy (and other) in particular already before the crisis of 2008 (US, Figure 6). Those deficits defended in most cases under the veil of "social progress" and/or redistribution even when it dealt with weapons or waste of resources were intended as a matter of fact to follow pseudo-keynesian policies oriented on the contrary jointly in some cases : i) to sustain the cycle in any case, without recurring to any restructuring, retrenchment, or re-discussion of public deficits and the stock of debt, ii) to favour politicians (and their re-elections), iii) to benefit social groups linked to government deficits, iv) in some cases at least, to finance wars here and there all over the world from Iraki to Balkans to Afghanistan. Figure 6 - U.S.A. Deficits or Surpluses in CBO Budget and Economic Outlook (CBO data in percentage of GNP) These continuous balance-deficits so effective ones in the short and mid term to stimulate as a matter of fact the effective international demand although in stop and go a way were solved by either the printing of currency or the emission of public bonds. These deficit policies, now so typical for many countries as to get acquainted with them, were actuated for larger and larger amounts: that's way the causes of growth were not simply attributable to a new (or renewed) efficacy and efficiency of the economic systems of many countries, exporters ones in particular (BRICs among them): more generally, they were permitted by the inexausted public expenditure, and state-deficits as well. This was true in particular for the U.S.A., raising a large part of world savings to sustain their own growth (C. Reinhart, K. Rogoff, 2008) included 10

16 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? their imperial role in the world, their the weapons industry, last but not least the spending-addict mentality of their families. This abundance of (current) public expenditure gave life in fact along time to real, deep changes in the psychologies and attitudes of the public in the U.S.A. and elsewhere: inspired by media, by models of affluent consumes, and the commercials as well, the citizens of many countries tended i) to acquire their own house(s), ii) to turn to consumerism (and to hyper-consumerism especially in the fields of HI-tech, fashion, dresses, movies, international or even exotic holydays, cars, furniture, drugs). This way, the higher the expectations and easy life, the higher the propensity to subscribe subprime loans and consumption ones as well, recurring in case to debt to finance pleasant but unaffordable living standards. In addition, this mentality expanded itself gradually outside the U.S.A. as a contagion: masses from all over the world tended to promote themselves into well-off life-styles also through debts: that's the burgeoning bourgeoisie of some one-billion people which the press is speaking of. To be true, we must anyway admit that a further, major set of actions reinforcing or even permitting those tendencies had been especially activated in the U.S.A.. Here in fact the Federal Reserve made along years large injections of liquidity (M 1 ) in order to "solve" (so to say) the crises of the 1980s and 1990s (Figure 7). The Treasury re-financed in fact the economy, directly or indirectly recurring to the Federal Reserve System and to larger and larger printing of dollars as it did along the Sixties, when President Nixon at the end of the story, 1971 was finally compelled to suspend the convertibility of the US dollar into gold. Figure 7 - USA Currency Supply (billions of US$ - official data) 11

17 Arnaldo Canziani Along time, the two classical ways to "solve" state-deficits currency, bonds interacted each other and with deposits as well: money supply, debts, deposits and quasi-money signs cumulated, especially after 1995 and even more after 1999 (Figures 7, 8). As a result i) in the external arena the foreign exchange of the US dollar had to front severe challenges, anyway smoothed by actions by other Central Banks; ii) at the same time, the abundance of currency, deposits, bonds and derivatives favoured the aforementioned borrowing (and indebtedness) as well as the so-called "financiarization" of the economy ( 3.). Figure 8 - Components of USA Money Supply (billions of US$ - official data) 3. The crisis of 2008 and its causes, among them financiarization This given, we must admit that variations in real factors were not at all the most important feature of that period: financial variables represented the other side of the coin, maybe the most important one in causing the crisis of 2008 and its Stock-Exchange reflects (Figure 9). 12

18 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? Behind the curtain, the world economiy was in fact characterized since a long time by: the abundance of national liquidities, giving origin to whole oceans of international liquidity due to transmission mechanisms; the endless creation of derivatives; the increasing leverage of banks and the financial system in general. Figure 9 - Dow Jones Industrial Average Once we speak of liquidity and transmission mechanisms, anyway, obviously we speak of i) bank deposits, ii) deposit multiplier. This way, nevertheless, we speak of credit offer, the excess of credit offer included; and this excess curiously but not by a chance matched with credit demand, with its never-ending growth, with so to say the excess of credit demand. This way, two pathological tendencies of banks on one side, of clients (families, leveraged firms and leveraged financial interediaries) on the other were joined, thus reinforcing that process, and the credit multiplier as well. The never ending growing of both M 1 and M 2 strongly contributed to the growth of the system: a drogue-addicted but effective a growth, contrary to the opinion of some scholar saying "monetary policy is the silk-spin which can hang the economy but never expand it". Maybe this was also due to the 13

19 Arnaldo Canziani relaxing of monetary controls in general, due to multiple special factors as i) (excess) confidence in markets, ii) wrong theories on their self-adjustment, iii) the will to favour the upswing of conjuncture. This recalls to memory e.g. the old Johannes and Rasche model of controllability of the money stock (Johannes and Rasche, 1987): degree of control = 1 / V [ M - M* / IR ], with M* = E [ M / π, IR ], where it is: V the variance of the forecast error (M - M*), conditional to the choice of both π and IR; π, policy variables; IR, institutional regime. The monetary expansion of the system, anyway, was not only based on different kinds of M, but also on bonds. The abundance of the latter ones, added to liquidity, permitted on its turn the existence of a true bond multiplier, i.e. the multiplying the amount of bonds via re-financing: a generally widespread transforming of risks into paper, giving origin to new, never-ending amounts of debits credits. Now, as in the case of families the new social models orientated right or wrong the behaviour of billions of people, so in these case maybe not by a chance new theories influenced, or even gave life, to new practices. Better, disputable theories (in this case dating back in principle to Modigliani and others) gave life to risky (or even dirty) practices in the banking and financial industries. So, the wrong (even preposterous) proposal of "squeezing out the risk" from the economic system permitted, in addition, the selling of bonds so highly sophisticated as to be totally mysterious ones, from the hedge funds to the categories today called toxic bonds (these facts are normally more politely described as "the opacity of the derived securities on the balance sheets of financial institutions", O. Blanchard, 2009). This way, a crude definition of SDR by Jacques Rueff, the French academician advisor of President De Gaulle (the nothing dressed in money), could have been easily extended to derivatives (the nothing dressed in bonds), financial instruments that, in both cases, would have met less success were the agents and scholars paying more attention to reality and fairness. As a conclusion, broadly speaking since 1980, the abundance of public expenditure, deregulation, and disputable financial theories as well gave life along years i) to real changes in the attitudes of the public towards both consumerism and debt, ii) to new risky policies by financial intermediaries. 14

20 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? The new set of expectations by the public, the abundance of liquidity, and the irresponsiveness of financial agents (from sub-prime to the so-called financial neutralization of risk) were among the most important causes of the Tsunami of , one of the so many in the last four-hundred years (see Figure 10). Figure 10 - The Financial Storm (Monde Diplomatique) The above-mentioned description of facts drives to diagnoses and interpretations well-known in economic literature, spite of different political accents, weighting of factors, and in case the protection of vested interests (Hyytinen and Takalo, 2004; Kaufman and Seeling, 2002). According to those diagnoses, real and monetary variables must be read strictly together as the two faces of the same problem, the latter influencing the former (and vice versa) in the cumulative dynamics of the last years or so, a never-ending story of deficits and liquidity, debits and loans, loans and growth, growth and deficits. Someone tried in fact (J.D. Hamilton, 2009) to concentrate the causal factor of the crisis in the dramatic increase of prices of raw materials between the end of 2006 (metals) and the end of 2008 (foodstuffs, and moreover crude oil), but these fact, even relevant and damaging ones, were only one of the consequences of the abovementioned excess-liquidity, one among its severeal, real effects. 15

21 Arnaldo Canziani Practically, and as irregular as a thunder, the catalyst of the crisis was represented by the insolvency of subprime debtors unpredictable as far as the very moment was concerned, but frankly predictable (obvious?) from the systemic point of view, following these phases later on: 1. losses for banks due to bad credits 2. sales of assets to re-establish capital ratios 3. rumours stemming from both situations, causing runs by investors 4. credit crunch as well further sales of assets or re-financing, but spite of them illiquidity of banks 5. further propagation from bank to bank within the banking system at national and international level (Calomiris, 2008). The crisis was "solved" once more in the Anglo-Saxon world in particular by massive injections of liquidity to rescue failed banks, rotten insurance companies (and industrial firms), many of the former ones operating border-line, or even against the law. Here too, problems, risks and consequences are well-known ones since decades, both in literature and in practice (Bernauer and Koubi, 2004; Boissay, 2006; Calomiris and Mason, 2003). To syntethize we could say that, moving from the 1980ies, the international economic system was running faster and faster, with obvious problems of stability. The problems of crisis (or crash) were as evident in fact as unpredictable in time: the faster you go, the more dangerous the situation is, but a catalyst is anyway needed to make the situation explode. This explains the very rare warnings, sure due to widespread personal interests, but also to the problem of individuating the very moment of the rupture of that anyway dangerous "equilibrium". After the crash of Lehman Brothers not the only one to be opportune, and due the system crashed as a card-castle. Credits turned immediately from bad to irrecoveble ones, bonds were no longer reimbursable, banks got bankrupted and their shares lost rapidly up the 90% of their value or even more: the system become generally illiquid in a few weeks. After disorientation Governments as we all know choose to react in totally different a way than in 1929: they re-financed the system, recreating its liquidity via M 1 (and loans) once more, and in many cases made banks and financial companies helped, rescued, or even acquired by the State. Anyway, the crisis was a more serious and deep one than expected: it progressed unexpectedly with small ups and large downs; important banks announced large losses, every time definitive ones before the appearing of further, larger ones; private investments in bonds and shares lost from 50% to 90% of their market (or face) values. 16

22 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? As a result, panics peeped out (in most cases together with speculation), expectations turned from bad to worse all over the world, the general attitude towards consumes, investments, M&A and so on become wait and see in best cases. Raw materials too, and rather obviously, registered a drop, this being particularly true for crude oil after speculation (see Figure 11). Figure 11 - International Prices of crude Oil, Metals, Foodstuffs (Il Sole - 24 Ore on official data; percentage average variations) 17

23 Arnaldo Canziani As a further result, at global level a drop was registered in international trade, in 2008 diminishing its volume for the first time since decades. The peak was maybe reached in the 1 st quarter of 2009, this being true for most Western companies and Japanese ones as well, while in other countries the situation was in some cases a mixed one. Generally speaking, anyway, companies presented losses (or decreases in both sales and profits) for the 1 st semester of 2009, while forecasts seem to be better only with (and after) the third quarter of the same. This rather descriptive narration was mainly intended to introduce to the reader some structural causal factors crossing years and therapies, and constituting both the bulk of present problems and the conditions to make the same therapies effective ones. As a matter of fact economic policies, monetary ones in particular, must on one side deal with alternatives, hidden or collateral effects, lags, reactions by actors and so on. But on the other side they have to take into account the actual (economic and financial) structures which they live in, as well as the "exogenous" variables which on the contrary are, to be true, an inseparable part of the economic system. In short, we speak here in fact of such factors as: structural imbalances, especially in international trade and finance; public deficits, especially in the US and in some European countries; excess of liquidity at local-national-international-world level; personal interests (vested ones included) of bankers and politicians; expectations of actors, with particular regard to families and firms; attitudes of personae within the (financial) system from the point of view of capabilities, speculation, fairness, moral integrity. 4. The "solution" of the crisis, or liquidity and debts. The risks of both As we remembered before, insolvencies were avoided by the massive flows of new liquidity poured into the system, while anyway the economic actors families, firms, public powers too feared multiple crashes. As a first result, liquidity superimposed itself to i) a drop in demand due to the worsening of expectations, ii) a large, world credit crunch, due to the current situation of banks, iii) restructuring and retrenchment of firms due to the crisis, these factors giving life to (large) unemployment (50-60 million people according to estimations). The mixed dynamic interaction among these forces on one side, the present (and future) choices of economic policy on the other, will determine the future state of the economy. This remains anyway suspended between recovery and stagnation, these both in a context of price stability or, in case, of inflation. 18

24 What after the Tsunami of : recovery, inflation, stagflation? These broad situations have been experimented in different periods of time all over the world in the last ninety years, from Germany Weimar Republic to the Great Crisis (and New Deal), from Europe to South America and East Asia in the last decades. So, just to schematise them without recurring to boring academic lists (anyway well-known ones), the above-mentioned situations can be resumed in Figure 12 below. Figure 12 - From steady State to Growth, with or without Inflation Stable prices Inflation or moderate inflation Growth Steady State (A) RECOVERY (C) STAGNATION or DEPRESSION (B) HECTIC, ASYMMETRIC GROWTH (D) STAGFLATION Presently, the picture is a rather mixed and confused one, as so many dishomogeneous and countervailing forces are at work at the same time. Unemployment, drop in demand, relative overcapacity (in the car industry the potential production is esteemed to be 90 million cars per year at world level vs. an effective demand for 60 millions), bad expectations by firms and others keep prices cold, so avoiding at present inflation in general, raw materials included (here with same exceptions anyway). The same bad expectations by families succeed in increasing savings, anyway directed mainly to State-bonds, so curiously helping the States to rescue banks, and the economic trend in general. Due to bailouts, anyway, the banking industry is now composed by a lesser number of banks maybe more powerful than before, and due to this reason not only "too big to fail", but in addition harder to be controlled by the authorities. Anyway, credit demand is presently low due to the same reasons, while banks keep their own behaviour causing (and pursuing) a credit crunch due in addition to such factors as past insolvencies, hidden losses, fears of run, inadequate capital ratios: as a result investments are now blocked, so 19

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