INSIEME PER LA RIPRESA

Transcript

1 BOLOGNA - Convento S. Domenico 2 ottobre 2014 INSIEME PER LA RIPRESA Umberto Bertelè, School of Management - Politecnico di Milano Umberto Bertelè 1

2 Umberto Bertelè 2

3 Creare valore disgregando settori consolidati: il caso WhatsApp Umberto Bertelè 3

4 Il caso WhatsApp (1/4) WhatsApp è riuscita a distruggere il mercato degli SMS in soli 4 anni: un operazione che avrebbe richiesto in altri tempi tra i 20 e i 30 anni, ha sostenuto uno dei principali operatori mondiali di venture capital, in occasione della recente acquisizione di WhatsApp da parte di Facebook per 19 miliardi di dollari. Diciannove miliardi per una start-up nata nel 2009, che è riuscita in 4 anni - investendo pochi soldi (60 milioni di dollari) e con pochissime persone (55 in tutto), ma rinunciando quasi integralmente (dato il suo business model) ai ricavi - a superare la soglia dei 450 milioni di utilizzatori e dei 50 miliardi di messaggi processati al giorno: la più elevata velocità di crescita nella storia dell economia mondiale Umberto Bertelè 4

5 Il caso WhatsApp (2/4) Al di là dell entità della cifra pagata, è proprio la velocità con cui WhatsApp e le start-up sue concorrenti stanno disgregando un mercato ricco come quello degli SMS, con pesantissimi danni per gli operatori telecom che lo controllano, che merita riflessione. Anche perché si tratta di un mercato di nascita relativamente recente, sviluppatosi (fino all avvento degli smartphone) con il diffondersi dei cellulari, e anche perché i soccombenti sono in larga maggioranza grandi imprese. Così come merita riflessione il fatto che i nuovi entranti - WhatsApp e le altre start-up sottraggano alle imprese incumbent quote crescenti di mercato, ma non subentrino a esse (se non in minima parte) nei ricavi e nei profitti, perché offrono i servizi alternativi (quasi) gratuitamente. Umberto Bertelè 5

6 Il caso WhatsApp (3/4) Quali sono stati gli ingredienti alla base del fenomeno WhatsApp? Se ne possono evidenziare almeno cinque: la possibilità nata con gli smartphone di un accesso in mobilità a Internet e quindi di un convogliamento alternativo dei messaggi; la possibilità passando attraverso Internet di aggirare la politica di discriminazione dei prezzi in funzione degli utilizzi applicata dagli operatori telecom: quale ad esempio l inclusione nei messaggi stessi di foto; la disponibilità crescente di banda larga (broadband), per i suoi riflessi sulla qualità dei servizi fatti transitare attraverso Internet; la disponibilità di una infrastruttura sempre più consistente di cloud computing; il costo estremamente contenuto per la creazione e la diffusione di una app di così grande successo. Umberto Bertelè 6

7 Il caso WhatsApp (4/4) La crescita di WhatsApp attraverso la disgregazione di un settore ricco come quello degli SMS è un caso esemplare di big-bang disruption cioè il fenomeno, dilagante nell economia, di sparizione di interi settori o comunque di stravolgimento delle loro logiche competitive per l entrata in gioco di business model completamente (quale quello di WhatsApp) o parzialmente alternativi, resi possibili dalla più recente ondata di innovazioni tecnologiche e di investimenti infrastrutturali nell ICT. Umberto Bertelè 7

8 DISRUPTION LEGATA A FUNZIONALITA DISPOSITIVI OROLOGI MACCHINE FOTOGRAFICHE COMPATTE NAVIGATORI PORTATILI PRODOTTI NATIVAMENTE DIGITALI O DIVENUTI TALI GIOCHI ELETTRONICI MUSICA E FILM: STREAMING vs DOWNLOAD CONVERGENZA CINEMA-TV CONVIVENZA FORMATI GIORNALI LIBRI E-COMMERCE PRODOTTI DIGITALI E NON DIGITALI EFFETTO SHOWROOMING DIFFICOLTA RETAIL TRADIZIONALE INDICE CRESCE LA SHARING ECONOMY DISPONIBILITA vs POSSESSO SERVIZIO vs PRODOTTO AIRBNB, UBER, CAR SHARING.. FINTECH: LA DISRUPTION MINACCIA IL SISTEMA BANCARIO-FINANZIARIO PAGAMENTI TRASFERIMENTI DI VALUTA GESTIONE RISPARMIO NON SOLO DISRUPTION SANITA FORMAZIONE: MOOCs... AUTO IoT-INTERNET DELLE COSE, ROBOTS, TECNICHE ADDITIVE 3D Umberto Bertelè 8

10 L orologio non serve più per leggere l ora Umberto Bertelè 10

11 Aug. 28, 2014 Samsung, LG to Compete Head On With New Smartwatches A standalone phone for your wrist is finally coming. It will support 3G wireless networks and will be able to make and receive calls without having to be tethered to a smartphone. Sept. 3, 2014 Sony Rolls Out Two Wearable Devices Electronics Maker Unveils Wristband,New Version of Smartwatch Sept. 4, 2014 Apple Watch to Allow Mobile Payments Smartwatch to Have Tap-to-Pay Features, Curved Screen; Not Expected to Ship This Year Umberto Bertelè 11

12 Aug. 25, 2014 Swatch Switches Gears on Smartwatches as Apple Looms Its Stock Falling, Swatch Adds 'Smart' Features to Watches Swatch Group is starting to get worried about smartwatches. Over the past 12 months, Swatch shares have fallen nearly 11%, more than rivals Richemont and LVMH. For years Swatch has dismissed Internet-enabled watches as novelties that won't disrupt business at the world's biggest watchmaker. The company said it is introducing fitness functions, a key feature of smartwatches, to its Touch line of digital watches. Umberto Bertelè 12

13 Si acquistano sempre meno macchine fotografiche digitali compatte Umberto Bertelè 13

14 NOV. 10, 2013 Cameras Succumb to Smartphone Juggernaut There was a time when it would have been crazy to suggest that a phone camera would ever approach the speed and quality of a stand-alone camera. Now, that day is over. Sales of point-and-shoot cameras have been declining for years.. Taking a picture with a phone simply isn't a subpar experience. For most people, most of the time, a phone is all you need. What the phone did to the camera isn't an isolated incident. The story behind the death of the stand-alone camera is a history of the future of almost everything. Umberto Bertelè 14

15 AUG. 12, 2013 Smartphones Expose Camera Makers' Shortcomings Sales of Mass-Market Models Plummet, and High-End Hopes Look Misplaced (1/2) Smartphones are killing off the once-core business of compact digital cameras. Worse still, hopes that sales of high-end models would make up the shortfall now look misplaced. Sales of compact cameras are already tumbling fast at Canon and Nikon, which together sold 44% of all cameras globally last year. Umberto Bertelè 15

16 AUG. 12, 2013 Smartphones Expose Camera Makers' Shortcomings Sales of Mass-Market Models Plummet, and High-End Hopes Look Misplaced (2/2)... At Canon sales of compact cameras in the quarter ended June 30 were down 26% from a year earlier. At Nikon sales were down 30%. That wasn't a surprise given smartphone cameras are essentially making compact cameras seem increasingly obsolete Umberto Bertelè 16

17 Gli smartphone rottamano i navigatori portatili Umberto Bertelè 17

19 Gli smartphone e i tablet rubano spazio alle console per videogame Umberto Bertelè 19

20 JAN 20, 2014 Nintendo s declining sales put change of game plan on cards Nintendo announced that it had cut its net profit forecast of Y55bn ($527m) in the year to March to a net loss of Y25bn, as sales of its Wii U games console and 3DS handheld unit fell well short of global targets.. The core problem is that the world s largest games machine maker has been hurt by the big shift to mobile devices. Casual gamers are abandoning specialised hardware in favour of playing on phones and tablet computers, on which titles can be downloaded at a fraction of the cost.. 20

21 DEC 3, 2013 Apps market: From chat to finance, soon your gadget will run your life (1/2) Apps have become the core feature of every smartphone. Work or leisure, finance or fitness, apps are available for anything you could dream up and probably some you could not. Mobile app stores recorded 64bn downloads last year.. Revenues are forecast to soar to $26bn this year, from $18bn in

22 DEC 3, 2013 Apps market: From chat to finance, soon your gadget will run your life (2/2) And it is not just smartphones. The increasing popularity of tablets has opened up even more possibilities for app designers.. Practical tools such as Google Maps and social media such as Facebook are some of the most widely used apps, but games dominate the market.. About 70 to 80 per cent of revenues on Google Play and itunes come from games.. 22

23 August 17, 2014 Smartphone owners appetite for new apps wanes The average number of apps downloaded on a monthly basis has decreased considerably in As smartphones saturate mobile markets in the US and Europe, developers must rely on customers continuing to download new apps for their businesses to grow. August 19, 2014 Apps: Growing pains Once a thriving cottage industry, bigger players are now dominant and profits are squeezed 23

24 Musica, film e televisione Umberto Bertelè 24

25 NOV. 12, 2013 Film in streaming a pagamento: Lo «store» Google arriva anche in Italia Si arricchisce il mercato del cinema on line a pagamento. Sul play disponibili pellicole a noleggio e in abbonamento Un nuovo contendente cerca di portare in Italia lo streaming legale di film: si chiama Google ed è pronto a dare battaglia ai numerosi concorrenti. Da oggi infatti anche in Italia sarà possibile noleggiare o acquistare film da Google Play, il negozio online del colosso delle ricerche già noto per la vendita di applicazioni, giochi, musica e libri. Google sbarca in un mercato affollatissimo dove i servizi abbondano: ITUNES (Apple); CHILI TV (cui partecipa anche il «Corriere» con il Cinema Store); CUBO VISION (Telecom Italia); MYMOVIESWIDE!; VODDLER (arrivato in Italia a maggio); XBOX VIDEO (Microsoft); PLAYSTATION 3 (Videostore di Sony). Entro fine anno arriveranno anche le piattaforme di Mediaset e Sky. Umberto Bertelè 25

26 DEC YouTube ad revenue surges to $5.6bn Advertisers will spend a projected $5.6bn on YouTube in 2013, an increase of more than 50 per cent on the previous year, according to a report. The sharp rise, which follows an explosion of viewing on mobile devices, comes as advertisers strive to reach younger consumers who have drifted away from television.. Umberto Bertelè 26

27 JAN 3, 2014 Streaming services take toll on digital music sales Long considered the music industry s best prospect for growth, US digital music sales declined in 2013 for the first time since the launch of Apple s itunes store in 2003 US digital single track sales dropped 6 per cent in 2013 to 1.26bn units from 1.34bn in Total digital album sales were about flat year on year, with 118m units sold. The sales decline comes amid the fast growth of streaming music services, such as Spotify, Deezer and Rdio... The total number of audio and video streams surged 24 per cent to 50m streams during the first half of 2013 compared with the same period the year before.. 27

28 Jun 14th 2014 Second wind Some traditional businesses are thriving in an age of disruptive innovation Even staid businesses such as law firms and universities are threatened by technology-cum-globalisation. But look at the air more closely and you can see some strange objects floating around: - Swiss watches - Montblanc fountain pens - Harris Tweed jackets - old-fashioned sailing boats. Management gurus may tell people to bow down before the great god of disruptive innovation. But some companies are cheerfully doing the opposite - preserving or resuscitating traditional technologies and business models. Umberto Bertelè 28

30 Sono sempre più in crisi i giornali e ci sono sempre meno edicole Umberto Bertelè 30

31 NOV. 5, 2013 Rcs, il Cda dà il via libera alla vendita della sede di Corriere e Gazzetta Il Consiglio di amministrazione di Rcs ha approvato «a maggioranza» la vendita per 120 milioni al fondo americano Blackstone del complesso immobiliare di via Solferino e via San Marco a Milano, che oggi ospita le redazioni del Corriere della Sera e della Gazzetta dello Sport... All'ultima rinegoziazione del debito, conclusa contestualmente agli accordi di garanzia per l'aumento di capitale da 400 milioni completato a fine luglio, era stata inclusa tra le garanzie per le banche anche un'ipoteca sull'immobile di via San Marco e Solferino. Umberto Bertelè 31

32 OCT. 29, 2013 Loss Expected to Widen for New York Times Company OCT. 10, 2013 Amazon.com founder and chief executive Jeffrey P. Bezos formally took over as the owner of The Washington Post on Tuesday, officially ending 80 years of local control of the newspaper by the Graham family. Bezos s $250 million purchase... Bezos has the deep pockets to sustain an enterprise that has been buffeted for years by declining readership and advertising, especially in the printed Post... Umberto Bertelè 32

33 L Editoria: I giornali Due business model tradizionali per il giornale cartaceo : la formula mista lettori + pubblicità, con il passaggio per le edicole o la distribuzione diretta (prevalentemente per abbonamento) la formula free press, solo pubblicità, con la distribuzione diretta gratuita nei punti di grande passaggio. Che cosa succede con l avvento di Internet? cresce la disponibilità di notizie gratuite su web, che comincia ad assorbire fatturato pubblicitario; inizia la vendita online dei giornali, con effetti abbastanza limitati; iniziano a scendere, anche per effetto della crisi, sia le vendite cartacee sia la pubblicità sui giornali; inizia un lento processo di riorganizzazione dei giornali, diverso a seconda dei paesi, con una progressiva fusione fra le redazioni cartacea e online Umberto Bertelè 33

34 L Editoria: I giornali Che cosa succede con l avvento di smartphone + tablet + app + cloud+ banda larga? cresce molto, soprattutto con il tablet, la vendita online: limitata però ai giornali più importanti e non tale da bilanciare le perdite nelle copie cartacee (se non forse per giornali specializzati come FT e WSJ); il prelievo sulla vendita (che avviene attraverso app) è forte: il 30 per cento nel caso di Apple; cresce il contenzioso con gli OTT per la sottrazione illecita di news, con un paradosso: senza il passaggio attraverso gli OTT un giornale non esiste ; calano drasticamente le vendite del cartaceo e cala drasticamente la pubblicità, facendo entrare in crisi anche giornali come il NYT; mai così tanti lettori come adesso (Ferruccio De Bortoli), ma mai così pochi soldi; violente ristrutturazioni, come quella recente di RCS; chiusura di moltissime edicole (un terzo delle esistenti a Milano), che vedono esaurirsi la loro funzione. Umberto Bertelè 34

35 Sono sempre più in difficoltà le librerie e crescono i conflitti con gli editori tradizionali Umberto Bertelè 35

36 JAN 16, 2013 Barnes & Noble, the Last Big Bookseller Standing: But for How Long? (1/2).. Despite a heavy investment in the Nook business, Barnes & Noble is expected to have a three-year cumulative loss of more than $700 million On January 3, Barnes & Noble said its holiday sales for the nine-week period ending December 29 were $1.2 billion, down 10.9% from a year ago... Nook product sales fell 12.6% from a year ago. Barnes & Noble isn t alone. Many traditional retailers are struggling against online powerhouse Amazon.com: Best Buy, Target,.. Bricks-and-mortar retailers are battling a phenomenon called the showrooming effect : the consumer practice of checking out a product in a retail store and then buying it online at a better price... Umberto Bertelè 36

37 JAN 16, 2013 Barnes & Noble, the Last Big Bookseller Standing: But for How Long? (2/2) Despite the bankruptcy of chief competitor Borders in 2011, Barnes & Noble has struggled to increase sales. It has actively moved to address consumers rapid shift from print to digital books and to combat Amazon s expanding Kindle business. However, Barnes & Noble s Nook now faces a growing number of competitors.. The challenge for Barnes & Noble is that it lacks a strong digital content ecosystem relative to Amazon, Apple and Google. Both Apple and Amazon, for example, have invested heavily in video content and digital music distribution. Barnes & Noble historically has focused solely on books. Barnes & Noble is the last bookstore chain standing, says Wharton management professor Steve Kobrin, There s still a niche there, but it may go to small independent bookstores. Umberto Bertelè 37

38 June 25, 2014 Barnes & Noble to separate retail, Nook Media Barnes & Noble hopes to survive by splitting in two. The largest U.S. brick-and-mortar bookseller, beset by tough competition from online retailers like Amazon and discount stores like Wal-Mart, plans to split off its Nook e-reader division as it looks to boost shareholder value. Investors applauded the news, sending shares up more than 6 percent in midday trading. Umberto Bertelè 38

39 June 29, 2014 Bertelsmann Getting Out of Book Retailing Publisher to Close Stores, Book Clubs in German- Speaking Markets Umberto Bertelè 39

40 Aug. 9, 2014 Amazon Aims at Publisher Hachette's CEO in Contract Dispute Calls on Authors to CEO, Pressure Him to Agree to Terms Umberto Bertelè 40

41 LE NUOVE BIBLIOTECHE POPOLARI Jul 16, 2014 Amazon Tests Kindle Unlimited, A Netflix For Ebooks And Audiobooks Amazon might give readers something to get really excited about: A digital ebook and audiobook subscription service that provides Kindle users with all the content they can consume from a potential library of over 600,000 titles for just $9.99 per month. This Netflix for ebooks would compete with existing services including those from startup Oyster. Umberto Bertelè 41

43 Anche le catene retail tradizionali soffrono la concorrenza dell e-commerce Umberto Bertelè 43

44 NOV. 11, 2013 Staples: trouble in store Retailer faces a double whammy akin to the book industry Another rough day for bricks and mortar retail. Staples, the US officesupplies chain, said that it would close up to 225 stores in North America over the next two years. That is about 12 per cent of the 1,846 it had at the end of Also this week, RadioShack, the troubled electronics retailer, said that it was shutting up to 1,100 stores (about a fifth of its total.) Technology in general and Amazon in particular are transforming the way people buy stuff. All retailers are trying to work out how to transform themselves in order to survive. Umberto Bertelè 44

45 NOV. 11, 2013 Target Fills Its Cart With Some of Amazon's Tricks (1/2) Target has come up with an answer to Amazon.com. Copy it. The discount chain's latest online offerings have a distinct Amazon feel - from recurring deliveries for diapers to ondemand streaming video and free shipping and discounts for its members. All emulate similar offers from the e-commerce company. Target says Amazon is just one of many competitors and it isn't mimicking anyone. Still, the moves highlight an important fact of doing business at Target: the customer who visits the discounter's giant stores and the customer who orders online from Amazon are increasingly the same person. Umberto Bertelè 45

46 NOV. 11, 2013 Target Fills Its Cart With Some of Amazon's Tricks (2/2) The deep overlap poses a significant threat to a company that despite the cultural moves and heavy investment continues to struggle with e-commerce, even as customers shift more and more of their shopping online. Target's Internet sales are less than 2% of its $73 billion in total sales last year. By comparison, Amazon's North America sales rose 30% last year to $35 billion, most of it in categories of goods that Target also sells. Umberto Bertelè 46

47 August 14, 2014 Big fashion names fund shopping app Retailer faces a double whammy akin to the book industry Some of the fashion world s biggest names are backing a fledgling New York ecommerce platform that aims to use the familiarity of social media hallmarks to make shopping easier on a mobile phone. Lew Frankfort.. and Groupe Arnault, the fund controlled by LVMH s Bernard Arnault, have all invested in a recent $7.5m funding round for Spring, a mobile app that launches in the US. Spring is a direct-sales marketplace targeting young, twenty-something female professionals that combines the visual aesthetic of photo-sharing app Instagram with the compulsive swipe function of dating app Tinder and the favouriting and following components of Twitter. Spring provides the software and technological infrastructure, while the fashion companies handle inventory and shipping via their existing ecommerce operations. Umberto Bertelè 47

48 NOV. 11, 2013 China e-commerce love affair breaks records on Single s Day Monday in China was Single s Day, a day that e-commerce companies have turned into the world s biggest day for online shopping by offering a steady stream of promotions and deep discounts. By 1:04pm on Monday, sales on Alibaba, the nation s largest e-commerce group, reached $3.1bn. At midnight, this figure had almost doubled to $5.7bn. Last year, revenue from online sales in China was between $190bn-$210bn, a close second to the US market, worth $220bn-$230bn, and China s market is growing much faster. Umberto Bertelè 48

49 September 5, 2014 Alibaba to raise up to $21.1bn in IPO Alibaba is seeking to raise up to $21.1bn on the New York Stock Exchange in what will be one of the largest IPO on record, with a price range of $60 to $66. At the top of the range this would value the company at about $160bn. At $16bn, Facebook s listing in 2012 is the largest technology or internet-related IPO. Alibaba is China s largest ecommerce platform, controlling as much as 80 per cent of the market, with nearly $300bn worth of goods sold on its marketplaces last year (more than comparable figures for Amazon.com and ebay combined). Alibaba has been facing competition from other Chinese Internet companies, including Tencent, as they all work to lure China's 500 million smartphone users. Umberto Bertelè 49

51 CRESCE LA SHARING ECONOMY Umberto Bertelè 51

52 March 20, 2014 Airbnb Is in Advanced Talks to Raise Funds at a $10 Billion Valuation The rich price tag reflects Airbnb's potential to disrupt the hotel industry. In six years, the company has become a required destination for millions of tourists looking for cheap rooms, while giving homeowners a new source of income. The company could be worth more than Wyndham Worldwide, which manages 7,500 hotels under the Wyndham, Ramada and other brands, and is valued at $9.3 billion. Hyatt Hotels has a market value of $8.4 billion. Umberto Bertelè 52

53 Jul 8, 2014 Catalonia Fines Airbnb, Threatens to Block Locals From Using Site Jun 18, 2014 China s Answer to Airbnb, Tujia.com, Raises $100M Umberto Bertelè 53

54 June 13, 2014 Taxi protests drive growth of cab-hailing apps Protests by thousands of taxi drivers in Europe this week, bringing traffic chaos to the streets of London, Paris, Milan and Berlin, had at least one positive side-effect for the company that was the target of their anger. Umberto Bertelè 54

55 Aug. 11, 2014 Tech's Fiercest Rivalry: Uber vs. Lyft The Two Heavily Financed Upstarts Also Aim to Supplant the Taxi Industry Forget Apple vs. Google. The fiercest battle in the tech capital may well be between two heavily financed upstarts plotting the demise of the taxi industry - and each other. Uber and Lyft are undercutting each other's prices, poaching drivers and coopting innovations, increasingly blurring the lines between the two services. Umberto Bertelè 55

56 September 2, 2014 Uber hit with nationwide ban in Germany Uber is facing its biggest legal challenge so far after its most popular service was banned throughout Germany, marking the first time the disruptive taxi app has been hit with a countrywide restriction. The temporary injunction imposed by Frankfurt s Regional Court prohibits the fast-growing company from operating its Uber Pop ride-sharing service. Uber said it would continue to operate in defiance of the injunction, but it faces fines of up to 250,000 ($328,000) per trip if it is caught violating the ban, which does not affect its higher-priced "Black" limousine service. Ride-sharing companies allow anybody who passes a background check to act as an ad-hoc taxi driver after being hailed by a smartphone app. Critics say the model poses safety risks and skirts regulations that licensed taxi drivers must adhere to, while Uber and other start-ups say it increases consumer choice and creates jobs. Amid escalating regulatory challenges and battles with taxi operators around the world, Uber last month hired David Plouffe, election campaign manager to Barack Obama, to lead its strategic and policy response. Umberto Bertelè 56

58 58 April 10, 2014 Silicon Valley start-ups vie to make online credit work (1/2) Lending working capital to small businesses hardly sounds like the sexy end of the digital industry. But something of a race is on between a band of internet start-ups many with big-name backers [i.e. Google, David Bonderman (co-founder of private equity firm TPG), Vikram Pandit and Tom Glocer (former CEOs respectively of Citigroup and Thomson Reuters)] - that see this as one of the best avenues to breaking into the financial services world. Manually collecting and analysing the information needed to understand whether a business can remain solvent is a costly activity. That usually makes it uneconomic to lend the small amounts of cash that small businesses need. Automating this process promises to change the economics.

59 59 April 10, 2014 Silicon Valley start-ups vie to make online credit work (2/2) The ability to pull in accounting data automatically from a borrower s own books has been made easier by the fact that much of that information now resides in cloud services. Most lenders also draw on other pools of data from government census surveys to user reviews on online sites such as Yelp to build their risk models and gather a full picture of a business s prospects. Crunching the data with algorithms, rather than human analysts, has further reduced overheads.

60 60 FT - August 27, 2014 Lending Club seeks to raise more than $500m in IPO Lending Club moved ahead with plans for an IPO that will test investor demand for peer-to-peer lenders. The San Francisco-based company, founded in 2007, is likely to seek a valuation of about $5bn and hopes to raise more than $500m. The company runs an online marketplace for connecting borrowers and lenders. It has facilitated more than $5bn in loans, including over $1bn in the second quarter of Unlike a bank, Lending Club does not assume credit risk or use its own capital to invest in loans. Investors have been lured by high-yielding loans in the platform during a period of historically low interest rates.

Vedere altro