PV in IEA Medium term Market Forecast and Long term Scenarios

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1 PV in IEA Medium term Market Forecast and Long term Scenarios Roberto VIGOTTI Vice Chair RE Working Party

2 E uscito l ultimo rapporto della WB

3 La brutta notizia Il rapporto che esamina i rischi legati ad un riscaldamento climatico di 4 gradi entro la fine del secolo, ma stavolta non sono gli scienziati dell'ipcc o qualche associazione ambientalista a lanciare l'allarme, ma il cuore del gotha economico planetario: il Gruppo della Banca Mondiale. Il verdetto è senza appello: le attività umane sono responsabili del riscaldamento del pianeta e questo riscaldamento si sta già traducendo in cambiamenti osservabili. Senza misure concrete di lotta contro il cambiamento climatico, la comunità internazionale potrebbe subire le conseguenze catastrofiche di un aumento di 4 gradi della temperatura media entro la fine del secolo

4 La raccomandazione della Banca L'adozione di politiche di sviluppo sostenibile potrebbero in effetti permetterci di limitare il riscaldamento planetario a meno di 2 gradi, Un utilizzo più efficace e più intelligente dell'energia e delle risorse naturali potrebbe permetterci di ridurre radicalmente l'impatto dello sviluppo sul clima, senza per questo rallentare gli sforzi della lotta contro la povertà o la crescita economica. Ogni Paese sceglierà metodi differenti per realizzare una crescita più ecologica, ma in ognuno di essi esistono delle occasioni di crescita verde da sfruttare. Conclude il rapporto: «La previsione di 4 C di riscaldamento semplicemente non deve essere permesso che si verifichi, questo caldo deve essere respinto. Solo azioni a scala internazionali possono farsì che questo accada».

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8 Renewables take their place in the sun Re make up an increasing share of primary energy use in all scenarios, thanks to government support, falling costs, CO2 pricing in some regions and rising fossil fuel prices in the longer term. By 2035, electricity from renewables triples, and will account for almost one third of total electricity output. Solar grows more rapidly 26 times!! than any other renewable technology, and will provide 7,5% of all RE based generation. Wind almost ¼. Renewables become the world s second largest source of power generation by 2015 (roughly half that of coal) and, by 2035, they approach coal as the primary source of global electricity

9 RE capacity additions per year A total of 3000 GW of Re capacity including replacements is built , more than half of total gross capacity additions in the power sector

10 Cumulative investment in RE based electricity generation in NPS Cumulative investments of 6 trillion $ required by 2035, with annual investments up to 300 billion $ in RE accounts 62% of total investement in power generation

11 IEA and its key publications on RE

12 The Medium Term RE Market Report The IEA is publishing its first medium term report focused on renewable energy Bottom up, global renewable forecast of renewable electricity capacity and generation over the next 5 years Detailed analysis of 12 OECD countries (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK, US)and China, India, Brazil (~80% of world renewable electricity) For 2012 edition, focus on 8 technologies in power sector Completes slate of IEA MT forecasts: oil, gas, coal

13 Key trends As a portfolio of renewable technologies matures, global renewable power generation is forecast to rise 40% Supported by policy/market frameworks and economic attractiveness in increasing range of countries and circumstances Technology cost developments, grid/system integration, cost/availability of financing also weigh as key variables High level of economic/policy uncertainty in some countries This projected growth is an acceleration vs previous period Growth is 60% higher over versus Renewable deployment is projected to spread out geographically, with increased activity in emerging markets Deployment spurring economies of scale in some technologies virtuous cycle of improved competition and cost reductions

14 Non hydro technology deployment spreads out Number of countries with cumulative capacity larger than 100MW (can cover consumption of 100k households) increases significantly Growth areas include Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East Number of countries with installed capacity above 100 MW Non-OECD OECD Onshore wind Offshore wind Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean

15 Generation additions over differ across regions and technology portfolios OECD Americas (+179 TWh) Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Other technologies OECD Asia Oceania (+77 TWh) Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Other technologies OECD Europe (+365 TWh) Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Other technologies Non OECD ( TWh) Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Other technologies

16 Medium term solar PV outlook Global capacity to top 230 GW in 2017 (baseline) Markets quickly changing due to changing policy environment (China, Japan, Germany, Italy, etc.) and falling costs Market shifting to good resource areas that don t need subsidies GW 250 Global solar PV capacity forecast Germany China US Japan Italy RoW

17 Outlook uncertainty significant Germany and Italy s projections already challenged EPIA s range in 2016: 208GW 343GW GW 350 Global solar PV capacity forecasts comparison IEA baseline 2016 IEA enhanced 2016 EPIA Moderate 2016 EPIA policy-driven Germany China US Japan Italy RoW

18 Penetration shares GW 2017 enhanced case 2010/11 power system Benchmark % China % Germany % USA % Japan % Italy % European countries like Germany and Italy could be reaching high PV penetration shares by 2017 Emerging economies but also the US represent much larger potential markets

19 RE Support Shows Impact on Household Prices ct/kwh EUR Generation, transport, distribution VAT Concession fee EEG surcharge CHP law Electricity tax In 2011 PV Generated around 20% of EEG supported energy Accounted for approx 45% of all EEG payments

20 PV Generation Impacting Spot Markets GW 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0, Power generation in Germany, 14 May 2012 Conventional Wind PV hr Phelix Base [EUR/MWh] Phelix Peak [EUR/MWh] Spread [%] Source: Top, EEX Transparency Platform; Bottom EEX cited as in

21 Medium term solar PV manufacturing outlook Amid overcapacity, solar PV industry undergoing major restructuring Selling at zero margins or loss to keep market share Chinese companies taking larger market share Upheaval likely to persist for several years Companies locating manufacturing closer to emerging markets Sunnier countries with high demand growth more attractive (e.g. Asia and Middle East) Capital less costly, more accessible in Asia Chinese companies increasingly produce for large, domestic market

22 Conclusions Massive improvements in recent years IEA forecasts PV world capacity to increase x 3 4 times over next 5 years However, system and market integration issues emerging in specific countries market reforms needed Moving to new countries and competitive market segments is key Huge long term potential

23 For further insights and analysis The Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012 online at: Thank you for your attention!

24 Le conseguenze Innalzamento del livello del mare l'agricoltura, le risorse idriche, la salute umana, la biodiversità saranno verosimilmente gravemente colpiti. Queste ripercussioni potrebbero produrre vasti spostamenti di popolazioni, ridurre la sicurezza e perturbare i sistemi economici ed il commercio. Ondate di calore Acidificazione degli oceani Calo delle rese agricole. in tutto il mondo, con gravi rischi per la sicurezza alimentare futura I rischi per i servizi eco sistemi agli esseri umani, rischi gravi per le incidenze negative sulla disponibilità di acqua

25 Share RE by category and scenario

26 Growth in renewable power is forecast to accelerate Hydropower remains the main renewable power source (+3.1% p.a.) Non hydro renewable sources grow at double digit annual percentage rates (+14.3% p.a.) TWh Global renewable electricity production and forecast Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Geothermal Wind offshore CSP Ocean

27 Enhanced case Enhanced case is a country specific exercise for 15 countries covered in detail in the report (not the rest of the world) It assumes market specific barriers to RE are overcome Baseline Enhanced 300 RoW 300 RoW 250 Italy 250 Italy 200 Japan 200 Japan 150 US 150 US 100 China 100 Germany 50 Germany 50 China 0 GW TWh 0 GW TWh

28 Renewables will play a key role in a sustainable future mix in TWh % % 57% 71% Other RES Wind Solar Bioenergy and wastes Hydro Nuclear Oil Natural gas Coal DS 2DS 2DS hi-ren Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012