Section I - The Process of Project Risk Management in Selex-ES and the supporting tools

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Aloisio Casati
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1 Agenda Section I - The Process of Project Risk Management in Selex-ES and the supporting tools Section II - The Data Representation Problem and the construction of the Model Section III - Data Analysis and Decision Making Process 1

Data Representation Problem and the construction of the

2 Section I - The Process of Project Risk Management in Selex-ES and the supporting tools The Process and the Tool Overall Risk Management Approach TERRA, Tool For Evaluating Risks and Reduction Actions TERRA Architecture and Workflow TERRA Risk Form: Identification TERRA Risk Form: Assessment TERRA Risk Form: Action Plans TERRA Business Analyzer 2

Evaluating Risks and Reduction Actions TERRA Architecture and Workflow TERRA Risk

3 The Process and the Tool The Process The Tool through TERRA is a web-based tool, accessible to all users and integrated within the existing Company Management Systems 3

4 PROJECT : FREMM - CMS COR : CLASS : A PROJECT : PROJECT : FREMM - CMS FREMM - CMS RISK ASSESSMENT REPORT (RAPPORTO DI VALUTAZIONE DEI RISCHI DI PROGETTO) IPT Lead er / PM : T. STYL ES Date : 04/07/2007 (PIANO DI RECUPERO SUI RISCHI DI PROGETTO) RISK ACTION REPORT (RAPPORTO DI INTERVENTO SUI RISCHI DI PROGETTO) Rilavorazioni/modifiche alla funzionalità (ASW) Anti gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.3 A. Neri /04/07 FAT F OC ASW 30/04/12 30/04/12 YES Subsurface Warfare di nuova realizzazione Risk Exposure Milestone Milestone Date Issue Ri sk Ri sk Value Probabil ity Impact Factor Start Date Risk Predicted Ri sk ID Date Status Risk Title Ri sk O wner Techn Manag Affected by the Acti on Plan no. Area Risk Occurring Planned Revised (K ) (K ) (K ) lug-06 PROPOSTO 6.3 Impatti da mancato consolidamento Horizon/NUM A Neri /02/08 HAT FOC ASW 30/04/12 30/04/12 YES Mancanza di risorse chi ave o con skill adeguati per le gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.3 A. Neri /01/07 CDR 28/02/08 28/02/08 YES fasi di impostazi one del progetto Rilavorazione del SW per aggiornamento dell a gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.3 A. Neri /09/10 FAT F OS GP#5 30/09/20 30/09/20 piattaforma Rallentamento dei flussi informativi durante la fase di gen-06 PROPOSTO 5.2 progetto e realizzazione del sistema dovuto alla R. Veronesi /02/08 FAT F OC ASW 30/04/12 30/04/12 YES complessità contrattuale Rilascio Release set-06 PROPOSTO 5.3 Rallentamento attivi tà di testing in fabbrica R. Veronesi /06/09 31/07/10 31/07/10 YES SW nave FOC GP set-06 PROPOSTO 5 Necessi tà di realizzazione di simulatori R. Veronesi /02/08 FAT F OC ASW 31/08/11 31/08/ gen-06 PROPOSTO 5.1 Prolungamento atti vità a bordo R. Veronesi /05/10 SAT FOC GP#5 01/03/21 01/03/ gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.2 Necessi tà di un aggiornamento Tecnologico V. Mandese /03/09 FAT F OS GP#5 30/09/20 30/09/ set-06 PROPOSTO 5.2 Riorgani zzazi one della società DATAMAT R. Veronesi /02/08 HAT FOC ASW 15/12/11 15/12/11 Prolungamento atti vità di integrazione e collaudo in gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.1 R. Veronesi /03/09 FAT F OS GP#5 30/09/20 30/09/20 fabbrica Prima FAT HW gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.4 Progettazione HW con bassa margi nal ità V. Mandese /03/09 01/01/10 01/01/10 (nave GP) Modifiche al CMS a seguito dell'accettazione della gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.1 documentazione di progetto e della Valutazione V. Mandese /10/09 HAT FOC ASW 30/04/12 30/04/12 Operativa da parte del Cliente (MMI) set-06 PROPOSTO 5 Ridotta efficienza delle attività di bordo e SSIAC R. Veronesi /02/09 FAT F OS GP#5 30/04/20 30/04/20 Extra costi per la defini zione, quali fica e produzione gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.1 V. Mandese /02/08 FAT F OC SW 30/04/12 30/04/12 della Multi Functi onal Console Rischio di rivalsa economica da parte di OSN su Instal lazione FOC set-06 PROPOSTO 5.3 R. Veronesi /09/06 15/12/10 15/12/10 attivi tà di installazi one GP Prima FAT SW gen-06 PROPOSTO 6.1 Possibile sottostima dell e funzionali tà nuove CMS v. Mandese /08/06 01/11/09 01/11/09 YES (nave GP) TO TAL RISKS: TOTAL RISK EXP: T OTAL CONT INGENCY: Overall Risk Management approach Inside the IPTs: Project Risk Management Provide different views on a project s risk profile Find commonalities among business areas, products, project classes (cross risks), impacting on groups of projects, to define cross actions IPT. RISK FALL BACK PLAN REPORT.. Risk DataBase Analysis and Reporting Risk Manager At WBE level: focus on Risks and Actions 1 Risk Register Risk Risk Risk Risk Register Register Register Register Archive Archive Archive Archive Contingency Management At Project level: overall Risk trend In order to respect the budget (in terms of costs and milestones date) Contingencies are allocated and handled centrally by the Division/Top Management, on the basis of a project s overall risk trend

5 TERRA, Tool for Evaluating Risks and Reduction Actions TERRA, Tool for Evaluating Risks and Reduction Actions, is an "web-based", application accessible to all the IPT Members, can operate as a stand alone tool or integrated into the Company Management System and whose main features are: Management of the risks, both during the Bid Phase and Project Phase (Contracts and Studio / Product Development) Management of a historicized database (versioning is provided at Risk Form level as well as at Risk Register Level) 5

and whose main features are: Management of the risks, both during the Bid Phase and Project Phase (Contracts and Studio / Product

6 TERRA, Tool for Evaluating Risks and Reduction Actions Integration with Enterprise Management Systems for: Inheriting WBS structures, activities and Milestones in order to manage Risks related to individual Work Packages; Transferring the data (Contingency) for Cost Budgeting Activity; Analysis / Reporting for Decision Making Process It is based and integrated for performing Monte-Carlo Simulation for valuing the Overall Project Risk Exposure (Risk Profile, Top 5 Risks); Performs analysis specifically designed as Risk Summary, MLST traffic lights, Dashboard, Project Schedule Risk Profile, etc. etc. 6

Reporting for Decision Making Process It is based and integrated Palisade @Risk for performing Monte-Carlo Simulation for valuing the Overall Project Risk

TERRA Risk Form: Identification Identification of a risk goes through 2 subsequent steps, in 2 different areas of the risk form, and namely: 1) HEADING: here the key, basic elements, peculiar of that

7 TERRA Risk Form: Identification Identification of a risk goes through 2 subsequent steps, in 2 different areas of the risk form, and namely: 1) HEADING: here the key, basic elements, peculiar of that particular risk are defined, i.e.: Title (standard, pre-defined according to the risk s main cause) Risk Owner COP (the WBE the risk impacts on) Category } Area Particularly useful for cross Product analyses 2) IDENTIFICATION: brief description of the risk, as well as a detailed account of its cause and possible effects 7

TERRA Risk Form: Assessment In terms of possible effects (on Costs, Time and Probability), a risk is assessed from 2 viewpoints: Probability Costs Time Most Likely case, i.

8 TERRA Risk Form: Assessment In terms of possible effects (on Costs, Time and Probability), a risk is assessed from 2 viewpoints: Probability Costs Time Most Likely case, i.e the expected effects Worst case, i.e. the worst effects one can possibly envisage If the risk occurs, its effects on costs (Committed Cost), time (updated Milestone Planned Date) and probability (Committed Cost Probability) must be tracked down. Also, when costs are actually borne, their relevant amount is reported as Accounted Cost 8

possibly envisage If the risk occurs, its effects on costs (Committed Cost), time (updated Milestone Planned Date) and

9 TERRA Risk Form: Action plans Each action, must be defined in terms of: Action owner, i.e. he/she who is in charge of implementing and completing the action Action cost, i.e. the cost of the action implementation COP, i.e. the WBS element, or activity on which the action cost is expended Expected results, i.e. risk probability and impact (on time, cost and performance) after action completion Action progress status, i.e. action progress (in terms of both action plan implementation and results achieved) 9

e. the WBS element, or activity on which the action cost is expended Expected results, i.e. risk probability and impact (on time, cost and performance) after action completion Action progress status, i.

10 TERRA Business Analyzer Architecture and capability Analysis at single Project Level; Analysis at Multi Project (Program)Level; Analysis at Portfolio and Division Level; Analysis of selected Risk Forms; Analysis including Proposed and/or Approved Risk Forms for simulating different scenarios; Analysis including Authorized and/or unauthorized contingencies; Comparisons with different versions of the Risk Register; Ability to save analysis; 10

Proposed and/or Approved Risk Forms for simulating different scenarios; Analysis including Authorized and/or

11 TERRA Business Analyzer Examples of Analysis Risk Register Status Risk Summary; Risk Categories; Risk Areas; Risk Cost Breakdown; Rischiosità residua vs Costi tecnici a finire; Accantonamenti/Rilasci;... Decision Making Oriented Risk Profile; Analisi di Sensitività; Semaforo Milestone; Profilo temporale (Project Schedule Risk Profile); Valutazione gestione della Rischiosita' Residua;... 11

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Francesco Piccolo francesco.piccolo@selex-es.

12 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Francesco Piccolo Selex ES S.p.A. Piazza Monte Grappa Rome, Italy Tel

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