La sfida della scienza del clima. Antonio Navarra Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

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1 La sfda della scenza del clma Antono Navarra Isttuto Nazonale d Geofsca e Vulcanologa INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca e Vulcanologa - Italy

2 Arstotele Raffello, la Scuola d Atene De Meteorologca le d Geofsca e Vulcanolog ga - Italy However, all the mouths of the Nle, wth the sngle excepton of that at Canopus, are obvously artfcal and not natural. And Egypt was nothng more than what s called Thebes, as Homer, too, shows, modern though he s n relaton to such changes. ( ) Ths happened to the land of Argos and Mycenae n Greece. In the tme of the Trojan wars the Argve land was marshy and could only support a small populaton, whereas the land of Mycenae was n good condton. But now the opposte s the case, for the reason we have mentoned: the land of Mycenae has become completely dry and barren, whle the Argve land that was formerly barren owng to the water has now become frutful. Now the same process that has taken place n ths small dstrct must be supposed to be gong on over whole countres and on a large scale. ( ) So t s clear, snce there wll be no end to tme and the world s eternal, that nether the Tanas nor the Nle has always been flowng, but that the regon whence they flow was once dry: for ther effect may be fulflled, but tme cannot. And ths wll be equally true of all other rvers. But f rvers come nto exstence and persh and the same parts of the earth were not always most, the sea must needs change correspondngly. And f the sea s always advancng n one place and recedng n another t s clear that the same parts of the whole earth are not always ether sea or land, but that all ths changes n course of tme. tuto Nazonal INGV - Ist

3 L Optmum Clmatco Medoevale I Vchngh, sfruttando l optmum clmatco medoevale rescono ad esplorare tutto l Atlantco Settentronale. le d Geofsca e Vulcanolog ga - Italy tuto Nazonal INGV - Ist Erk l Rosso,vagga e fonda colone n Groenlanda e n Nord Amerca (Vneland)

4 La pccola era glacale l tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca e Vulcanolog ga - Italy INGV - Ist Dopo l 1450, le cose cambano. Sul settore EuroAtlantco le temperature volgono al freddo: e arrvata la Pccola Era Glacale. Bruegel, scena d nverno

5 Il Sstema Clma Evaporazone Precptazon Fum BIOSFERA mdta del Suolo

6 Radazone Solare La Macchna del Clma Radazone Terrestre INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca a e Vulcanologa - Italy

7 Il Blanco d Radazone Radazone Solare Blanco Netto INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca e Vulcanologa - Italy Radazone Terrestre Polo Nord Polo Sud

8 La Crcolazone Generale Hadley (1735) Ferrel (1856) ga - Italy a e Vulcanolog le d Geofsca Bergeron (1928) tuto Nazonal INGV - Ist Le dfferent teore della Crcolazone Generale da quella pu antca d Hadley(1735) alla vsone moderna d Bergeron (1928)

9 Hadley Crculaton

10 Clmatologa

11 Clmatologa SST

12 Clmatologa Zonale 200mb

13 Clmatologa Precptazon

14 Globalzzazone del Clma le d Geofsca e Vulcanolog ga - Italy tuto Nazonal INGV - Ist na sere d careste senza precedent, cu effett furono moltplcat dal regme colonale, colp l Inda nella seconda meta del XIX secolo.(1861,1866, , ). L nsermento dell agrcoltura tropcal nel sstema europeo mse n rlevo che la caresta, prodott da fallment della stagone delle pogge, non erano solo lmtat all Inda, ma s erano verfcate anche n Cna e n Brasle. Lo sforzo d comprendere s allargo. Jevons, ecoomsta e statstco, elabaro una teora secondo la quale ccl delle macche solar nfluenzavano ccl economc e n specal modo un cclo d undc ann tra crs fnanzare che aveva appena scoperto. Sr Glbert Walker, drettore del servzo meteorologco ndano nel cerco d prevedere le varazon nterannual de monson collegate a dsastr. S mbarco n una colossale fshng expedton per cercare d trovare relazon che collagassero monson ndan ad altr fenomen clmatc, coordnando uno sfrozo d raccolta dat senza precedent. Analzzando dat che gl arrvavano da tutto l mpero fu n grando d ndvduare una sere d relazon a lunga dstanza tra la pressone al suolo, d cu la pu famosa e la pu mportante e l Oscllazone Merdonale.

15 Teleconnectons NAO Monsoon North Atlantc Oscllaton Sahel SST SST Nordeste The nteractons between atmosphere and oceans n the tropcs domnate the varablty at nterannual scales. The man player s the varablty n the equatoral Pacfc. Wavetrans of anomaly stem from the regon nto the md-lattudes, as the Pacfc North Amercan Pattern (PNA). The tropcs are connected through the Pacfc SST nfluence on the Indan Ocean SST and the monsoon, Sahel and Nordeste precptaton. It has been proposed that n certan years the crcle s closed and and a full chan of teleconnectons goes all around the tropcs. Also shown s the North Atlantc Oscllaton a major mode of varablty n the Euro_atlantc sector whose coupled nature s stll under nvestgaton.

16 Mchelson-Morley Experment INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca e Vulcanologa - Italy

17 A scentfc f consderaton of clmate (I) tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca e Vulcanolog ga - Italy INGV - Ist Crucal experments lke the famous experment of Mchelson e Morley are not possble n clmate scence How s t possble a scentfc nvestgaton of clmate?

18 A scentfc f consderaton of clmate (II) system va a set of mathematcal relatons: the equaton of clmate. le d Geofsca e Vulcanolog tuto Nazonal INGV - Ist ga - ItalyWe can male experments f we represent the clmate The equaton of clmate are very dffcult, but they can be solved by numercal methods. We can then treat very complex mathematcal equatons, payng the prce of a enormous number of elementary operatons.

19 Fortunatamente, Avevamo le Equazon INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca e Vulcanolog ga - Italy

20 Le Equazon d Naver-Stokes F p uw uv v u v t u 1 tan sn 2 ga - Italy F p a a vw a u u v v t v a a a t 1 tan sn 2 cos 2 a e Vulcanolog F g z p a v u w v t w a a a t z le d Geofsca Q dt dp C T v t T z a t p 1 tuto Nazonal z w v u a v t p cos cos INGV - Ist p Rt

21 F t Dff Fnte Dfferencng M d l ga - Italy x A t Model a e Vulcanolog n n n n t A ) ( Leapfrog le d Geofsca n n n n n n x t A x ) ( ) ( 4 ) ( Leapfrog Implct tuto Nazonal n n n n n n n x t A x t A x INGV - Ist x x 2 2 Lax-Wendroff Polar problem: flterng to prevent nstabltes by CFL

22 Numercal Methods Dscretze the atmosphere L.F. Rchardson, Numercal Weather Forecasts

23 Precptaton tuto Nazonal ga - Italy a e Vulcanolog le d Geofsca INGV - Ist Boln Daves Charney Rossby Smagornsky Meteorologsts n front of the Electronc Computer Project at the Insttute for Advanced Study (Prnceton)

24 Sort of crowded at the pole Grds for Earth

25 Modell Matematc Rad. Solare Vento Radazone Rad. Terrestre Temperatura Calore Latente Vapor Acqueo Calore Sensble EVAPORAZIONE OCEANI -- SOLO -- CRIOSFERA -- BIOSFERA

26 EVAPORATION Atmosphere Sensble Heat Laten Heat Flux Salnty Temperature Densty Currents Solar Radaton INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca e Vulcanologa - Italy

27 Atmosfera le d Geofsca e Vulcanolog ga - Italy INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal Stress del Vento Radazone Atmosferca Stress del Vento Flusso Calore Sensble Precptazone Temperatura Dell ara Flusso d Radazone Flusso d acqua Flusso Calore Latente Radazone Solare Temperatura Superfcale ACCOPPIATORE: (1) Interpola dalla grgla Atmosferca a quella oceanca e vceversa (2) Calcola fluss Temperatura Superfce Marna Oceano Ghacco Marno

28 Courtesy Dr. Watanabe INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca e Vulcanologa - Italy

29 L andrde carbonca Valor massm d andrde carbonca

30 Stora dell andrde carbonca

31 Global Temperature

32 The clmate n 2005

33 The clmate n 2005:the Arctc

34 The clmate n 2005: hurrcanes

35 The clmate n 2005: Afrca

36 The clmate n 2005: Amazon Rver

37 The Permafrost n The Permafrost n 2005

38 CO2 Scenaros N2O CH4

39 Surface Temperature Dfferences JAS ( mnus )

40 Precptaton Dfferences JFM ( mnus )

41 Precptaton Dfferences JFM Total Precptaton ( mnus )

42 Il Protocollo d Kyoto rsolvera l problema

43 Ottmst ma preoccupat INGV - Ist tuto Nazonal le d Geofsca a e Vulcanologa - Italy