Emerging Markets: Light at the end of the tunnel

Transcript

1 Emerging Markets: Light at the end of the tunnel EM Roadshow June 2016 Edwin Gutierrez, Head of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Aberdeen Asset Management For investment professional use only Not for public distribution

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3 C1: Central Banks

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5 Central Banks' Balance Sheets (Nominal value/usd billion) 14,000 Fed BoJ ECB BoE 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Goldman Sachs, May 16

6 YTM breakdown of JPMorgan EMU GBI < 0% 7.5 Between 0% and 1% 20.9 Between 1% and 2% 37.3 > 2% 34.3 Source: JP Morgan, 30 Apr 16

7 C2: China

8 China Real GDP growth Real GDP growth (mid-weighted, % y/y 3qma) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Source: Emerging Advisors Group, May 16

9 China Total Credit Growth (3mma) Aggregate Financing (RMB bn) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Source: Bloomberg, PBOC, Mar 16

10 China Housing Starts % yoy Iron Ore Prices (RMB/MT) LME Copper Prices ($/MT) , ,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4, Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 4,200 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Source: NBS, Bloomberg, 31 Mar 16 Source: Bloomberg, May 16 Source: Bloomberg, May 16

11 C3: Commodities

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13 Russia Cheese Imports (1,000 MT) Source: US Department of Agriculture, Mar 16

14 Russia Car Sales YoY (%) Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Source: Bloomberg, Jun 16

15 Russia Ruble vs USD Central bank rate (%) Government spending YoY (%) Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 4 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep Source: Bloomberg, Jun 16

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17 Nigeria Naira vs USD 210 Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan Source: Bloomberg, Jun 16

18 C4: Corruption

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20 16 companies implicated Brasil 232 people investigated $3.6bn misappropriated 93 people convicted 179 people indicted 1 president impeached Source: Wikipedia, Apr 16 telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03593/demonstrators-atte_ b.jpg

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22 C5: Consumption

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24 Mexico Retail sales growth Growth rate (% y/y 3mma) 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: Emerging Advisors Group, Jun 16

25 Mexico Demographics Current population 128 million (#10 in the world) Urban population 78.1% Median age 27.8 years Aged 65 and over 6.5% Source: CIA World Factbook

26 Source: Wikipedia upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9b/escasez_en_venezuela%2c_mercal.jpg upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/escasez_en_venezuela%2c_central_madeirense_8.jpg upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f0/venezuela_shortages_2014.png

27 Venezuela Inflation rate (%) Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Source: Bloomberg, Jun 16 Food Scarcity Rate (%) Venezuelan Central Bank AS/COA (low) AS/COA (high) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Central Bank of Venezuela, Americas Society/Council of the Americas, Dec 15

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31 Thank you For investment professional use only Not for public distribution

32 For Professional Investors only Not for Public Distribution Important information Investors should be aware that past performance is not a guide to future results. The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested. The views expressed in this presentation should not be construed as advice on how to construct a portfolio or whether to buy, retain or sell a particular investment. The information contained in the presentation is for exclusive use by professional customers/eligible counterparties (ECPs) and not the general public. The information is being given only to those persons who have received this document directly from Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) and must not be acted or relied upon by persons receiving a copy of this document other than directly from Aberdeen Asset Management. No part of this document may be copied or duplicated in any form or by any means or redistributed without the written consent of Aberdeen Asset Management. The information contained herein including any expressions of opinion or forecast have been obtained from or is based upon sources believed by us to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to the accuracy or completeness. Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom.

33 La Gamma prodotti Emerging Markets di Aberdeen 32

34 Prodotti Azionari GLOBALI AG - Emerging Markets Equity Fund AG - Emerging Markets Infrastructure Equity Fund AG - Emerging Markets Smaller Companies Fund REGIONALI AG - Asia Pacific Equity Fund AG - Asian Smaller Companies Equity Fund AG - Latin American Equity Fund AG - Eastern European Equity Fund AG - Asian Property Share Fund BRIC - PAESI AG - Brazil Equity Fund AG - Indian Equity Fund AG - Russian Equity Fund AG - Chinese Equity Fund AG - China A Share Equity Fund 33

35 Prodotti Obbligazionari GLOBALI AG - Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund AG - Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund AG - Emerging Markets Local Ccy Bond Fund AG II - Emerging Markets Total Return Bond Fund* REGIONALI AG - Asian Local Ccy Short Duration Bond Fund AG - Asian Credit Bond Fund AG II - Asian Bond Fund AG II - Emerging Europe Bond Fund AG - Frontier Markets Bond Fund BRIC - PAESI AG - Brazil Bond Fund AG - Indian Bond Fund * Giugno Disponibile solo la classe Istituzionale 34

36 Aberdeen & Emerging Markets Se dico Aberdeen. 35

37 Ad uso esclusivo di professionisti Non destinato alla distribuzione al pubblico Gli investitori dovrebbero essere consapevoli che le performance passate non costituiscono garanzia di rendimenti futuri, il valore degli investimenti e del reddito che ne deriva potrebbe diminuire o aumentare e l'investitore potrebbe non rientrare in possesso dell'intero importo investito Le opinioni espresse nella presente presentazione non devono essere considerate raccomandazioni sulla costruzione del portafoglio ovvero raccomandazioni all'acquisto, detenzione o vendita di uno specifico investimento. Le informazioni contenute nella presentazione sono riservate a clienti professionali/controparti autorizzate (ECP) e non sono destinate al pubblico generico. Queste informazioni sono destinate esclusivamente alle persone che hanno ricevuto il presente documento direttamente da Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) e non devono essere utilizzate da persone che abbiano indirettamente ricevuto una copia del presente documento; pertanto non devono essere prese come riferimento. Nessuna parte del presente documento può essere riprodotta o duplicata in qualsiasi forma o su qualsiasi mezzo ovvero ridistribuita senza il consenso scritto di AAM Prima dell investimento in qualsiasi fondo, i sottoscrittori devono consultare i relativi prospetti informativi e prospetti informativi semplificati e l ultimo bilancio annuale se pubblicato successivamente. Per i fondi Aberdeen Global, tali documenti si possono ottenere gratuitamente presso Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited Filiale italiana, Via Dante 16, IT 20121, Milano. In Svizzera questi documenti e lo statuto del Fondo sono disponibili presso il rappresentante in Svizzera del fondo e Banca agente dei pagamenti per la Svizzera: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, Zurich Branch, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zurich. Documento emesso da Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited, società autorizzata e disciplinata dall'autorità di vigilanza finanziaria (Financial Conduct Authority) del Regno Unito 36