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1 Aggiornamento del modello a scala europea TREMOVE e progetto itren Cosimo Chiffi TRT Trasporti e Territorio Srl chiffi@trttrasportieterritorio.it 1

2 TREMOVE update: principali obiettivi Aggiornamento del database di input per TREMOVE sulla base dei risultati dei progetti FLEETS, EX-TREMIS e di altri studi recenti; Elaborazione del nuovo scenario baselineal 2030 e interazioni con i progetti itren-2030 e EC4MACS Elaborazione di 4 analisi di sensitività 2

3 TREMOVE: road mode (da FLEETS) Consistenza della flotta - 17 sottocategorie (come in COPERT4) - Elaborazione dell anzianità del parco e delle percorrenze annuali (iterazioni su funzione Weibull) - Nessun cambiamento nei fattori di emissione - Aggiornamento del modulo prezzi e tasse G<1,4 Gasoline Passenger cars G1,4-2 G>2 Diesel Passenger Cars D<2 D>2 LPG Passenger Cars PCLPG Gasoline Light Duty Vehicles LDG Diesel Light Duty Vehicles LDD Rigid Heavy Duty Vehicles HDVR Articulated Heavy Duty Vehicles HDVA Buses Buses Coaches Coaches Mopeds Mopeds 2 stroke Motorcycles Mot2T Mot<250 4 stroke Motorcycles Mot< Mot>750 3

4 itren-2030: principali obiettivi Basic objective: To extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of TRANS-TOOLS to new policy issues, in particular those linking transport with the technology, environment and energy fields. Specific objectives: To enable environmental assessment with TRANS-TOOLS by linking with TREMOVE. To extend forecasting horizon of TRANS-TOOLS and TREMOVE until To generate a coherent reference scenario for the itren-2030 model suite. To measure indirect economic impacts of transport policies. To consider user needs and compare with forecasts of previous studies. 4

5 Scenario di riferimento Non è costruito per fornire previsioni che si avvicinano al futuro probabile. Viene costruito assumendo un congelamento delle politiche al 2008 (solo le politiche già decise dal consiglio Eua metà 2008 sono considerate). È unoscenario basatoessenzialmentesui trend armonizzati della suite itren Non viene considerata la crisi economica mondiale. => sitrattadiunostep metodologicodiitrenper verificareassunzionimodellistichearmonizzatee consistenti. 5

6 Scenario Integrato È costruito sullo scenario di riferimento Include tutte le misure e politiche che verranno intraprese tra il 2008/2009 e il 2025, distinte tra Rilevanti e Probabili Talipoliticheriflettonoin granparte I vincolie le opportunitàlegate a treprincipalitemideiprissimidue decenni: Politicheper ilclima Scarsità di carburanti fossili Nuove tecnologie La crisi economica del 2008/2009 è inclusa. 6

7 itren-2030 model suite Model Purpose Approach Type Space Time TRANS- TOOLS TREMOV E POLES ASTRA Detailed network based analysisoftransport. Corridor analysis. Stochastic equilibrium Transport bottom-up EU31 Static, 2005, 2010, 2020, 2030 Transport trend as input Optimisation Strategic, EU31 Dynamic, and vehicle fleets, energy Fleet 1995 to and emissions as output. bottom-up 2030 Supply and demand of world energy system. Global energy emissions. Integrated assessment of economy, trade, transport, fleets, energy and emissions. Simulation Strategic, Energy bottom-up Simulation Strategic Global, EU27 Dynamic, 2000 to 2030 EU27+2 Dynamic, 1990 to

8 itren-2030 model suite in Reference Scenario Transport policy Transport infrastructure External scenarios Transport policy Vehicle technology TEN - Investments External scenarios Transport performance VKT TRANS- TOOLS Multi-modal transport network model Transport demand ASTRA Integrated economy-transportenvironment model Economic development Employment Local transport Transport demand Transport demand Economic development, fleets, trans. energy demand Energy prices, Trade in primary energy sources, Investments Emissions Vehicle fleet structure TREMOVE Environmental impact model and vehicle fleet model Energy prices POLES World energy model Energy prices Technology paths Transport policy Vehicle technology External scenarios Transport energy demand, Vehicle fleet structure Energy policy Energy technology External scenarios Legend: Model Model purpose Policy and technology inputs Main model outputs 8

9 itren-2030 models in Integrated Scenario TRANS- TOOLS Multi-modal transport network model Reference Transport demand Transport policy Vehicle technology TEN - Investments Economic crisis ASTRA Integrated economy-transportenvironment model GDP Employment Transport demand Energy Emissions Vehicle fleet structure GDP, Transport demand Energy demand Energy prices, Trade in primary energy sources, Investments TREMOVE Environmental impact model and vehicle fleet model Energy prices POLES World energy model Energy prices Energy Technology paths Transport policy Vehicle technology External scenarios Energy policy Energy technology External scenarios Legend: Model Model purpose Policy and technology inputs Main model outputs 9

10 Politiche che infuenzano le emissioni e le flotte già applicate nello scenario di riferiemnto (REF) Sector Content Type Period Level Emission Fuel quality directives P 1994, 1996, 2000, 2005, 2009 Emission Emission Eco driving by the use of GSI CO2 emission target for cars (voluntary agreement EC-car manufacturers) Base: CEN TA % of new sold road vehicles with GSI, % fuel consumption reduction, % of vehicle purchase cost increase P gr/km Fleet LPG, CNG cars TA Base: ACEA, JAMA-KAMA Fleet Euro V for HDV P 2008 NOx, PM target Fleet Euro V, VI for cars P 2009, 2014 Fleet Euro V, VI for LDV P 2010,

11 Politichecheinfuenzanola domandanelloscenario Integrato(INT) Content Type Period Level User charging on HDT implemented as road charges on all interurban networks (not only motorway) User charging on CAR implemented as road charges on all interurban networks (not only motorway) Including ETS in air and maritime transport P Country based values, depending on Greening transport package proposal P Country based values based on truck charges and ratio between car and truck marginal costs P whole POLES level City tolls P /vkm for PEAK period (PK) Liberalisation: 3 rd railway package (gradual opening up of int. rail services to competition) P % of rail passenger costs (source: quantification in the ASSESS) 11

12 Politiche che infuenzano la flottanello Scenario Integrato (INT) Content Type Period Level Binding CO2 emission targets for cars P : : to 2030:105 *supplementary measures (LRRT, LVL, TPMS, MAC.) are applied so that the targets decrease furthermore by 10 gr/km to reach: 2012: : to 2030:95 Binding CO2 emission targets for LDV P LDV: 2012: : to 2030:150 Euro VI for HDT P 2012 NOx, PM targets 12

13 Total CO 2 Emissions Total CO2 Emission by mode - REF M tc O SSS IWW Air Rail Freight Rail Pass Road Freight Road Pass Year Source: itren-2030, TREMOVE Model 13

14 Total CO 2 Emissions Total CO2 Emission by mode - INT M tc O Diff to REF SSS IWW Air Rail Freight Rail Pass Road Freight Road Pass Year Source: itren-2030, TREMOVE Model 14

15 Total CO 2 Emissions: % changes CO2 emission changes in INT 5.00% % Changes compared to REF 0.00% -5.00% % % % % Road Pass Road Freight Rail Pass Rail Freight Air IWW SSS Total % % Year Source: itren-2030, TREMOVE Model 15

16 Total CO 2 Emissions Road Pass Total CO2 Emission from Road Passenger Modes - INT 1200 M tc O diff to REF Motor-mopeds Van - Diesel Vans - Gasoline Buses- Diesel Buses-CNG Cars Year Source: itren-2030, TREMOVE Model 16

17 Total CO 2 Emissions: Cars Total CO2 emissions cars by fuel - INT m to n n e s C O Diff to Ref Biodiesel Bioethanol Electric H2 CNG LPG Diesel Gasoline year Source: itren-2030, TREMOVE Model 17

18 Total CO 2 Emission: Conventional Cars Total CO2 emissions from conventional cars - INT m tonnes C O Diff to Ref Large diesel Large gasoline Medium diesel Medium gasoline Small diesel Small gasoline year Source: itren-2030, TREMOVE Model 18

19 Average CO 2 Emission factors : Conventional Cars CO2 ttw emission factor changes in INT 0.0% -5.0% % C h a n g e s c o m p a r e d to R E F -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0% PCS Gasoline PCS Diesel PCM Gasoline PCM Diesel PCB Gasoline PCB Diesel -40.0% Year Source: itren-2030, TREMOVE Model 19

20 Total CO 2 Emissions Road Freight Total CO2 emissions from HDT- INT m to n n es C O Diff to REF HDT - Diesel LDV Electric LDV Diesel LDV - Gasoline year Source: itren-2030, TREMOVE Model 20

21 Total PM 10 Emissions Emissions of PM th o u s a n d to n n e s o f P M Road pass INT Road pass REF Road freight INT Road freight REF Year 21