Dexia Crediop SpA. Italian Subsovereign Debt and Debt Management Perspectives. FABIO VITTORINI Responsabile delle Politiche Commerciali

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Vanessa Castelli
8 anni fa
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1 Dexia Crediop SpA Italian Subsovereign Debt and Debt Management Perspectives FABIO VITTORINI Responsabile delle Politiche Commerciali 11

2 municipalities in the EU in % of municipalities in 5 countries France 40% Germany 14% Poland 3% Spain 9% Slovakia 3% Romania 3% Hungary 3% Czech Rep. 7% Italy 9% United Kingdom Lithuania Denmark Ireland Netherlands Portugal Sweden Bulgaria Belgium Poland Finland Greece Slovenia Italy Romania Germany Malta Estonia Spain EU average Latvia Luxembourg Austria Hungary Slovakia France Czech Republic Cyprus Average demographic size of municipalities inhabitants Number of inhab. 2 Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

EU average Latvia Luxembourg Austria Hungary Slovakia France Czech Republic Cyprus Average demographic size of municipalities 10 820 7 320 6 650 5 430 inhabitants 1 730 1

3 Sub-national public expenditure in the EU27: 15.5% of GDP and 33.9% of public expenditure in EU27 DK Sub-national expenditure as % of GDP SE BE ES FI DE IT AT EU27 NL UK PL HU FR CZ LV EE SI RO LT BG PT IE LU SK GR CY MT Source: Eurostat, October 2008 Sub-national expenditure as % of public expenditure 3 Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

IT AT EU27 NL UK PL HU FR CZ LV EE SI RO LT BG PT IE LU SK GR CY MT 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

4 Evolution of the weight of sub-national public expenditure in total public expenditure between 1997 and 2007 The ratio differential, in number of points, between 1997 and ES RO(2001) PL 9 8 SK DK 7 6 FI SE 5 IE LV 4 IT FR BE CZ 3 SI UK EU27 2 GR LT(2000) 1 NL MT CY(1998) EE PT 0 DE HU -1 LU BG(2002) -2 AT Sub-national public expenditure/public expenditure in 1997 (%) 4 Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

FR BE CZ 3 SI UK EU27 2 GR LT(2000) 1 NL MT CY(1998) EE PT 0 DE HU -1 LU BG(2002) -2 AT -3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sub-national

5 Sub-national public investment in the EU27: 66.6% of public investment in 2007 Belgium Italy Ireland Germany France Austria Spain Netherlands Denmark Finland Portugal Poland Slovakia United Kingdom Sweden Latvia Romania Czech rep. Slovenia Hungary Luxembourg Estonia Bulgaria Lithuania Cyprus Greece Malta % EU27 average: 66.6% Source: Eurostat, October 2008 Local public sector Federated States 5 Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

Slovakia United Kingdom Sweden Latvia Romania Czech rep.

6 Breakdown of debt between public actors in 2007 in the EU27 (% of GDP) Italy Greece Belgium Hungary Germany France Portugal Malta Austria Cyprus EU27 Netherlands Poland United Kingdom Sweden Spain Finland Slovakia Czech rep. Denmark Ireland Slovenia Bulgaria Lithuania Romania Latvia Luxembourg Estonia % 0 Source: Eurostat, Octobre Local public sector Federated States Rest of the public sector 6 Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

Denmark Ireland Slovenia Bulgaria Lithuania Romania Latvia Luxembourg Estonia % 0 Source: Eurostat, Octobre 2008 20 40 60 80

7 Sub-national public debt in the EU27: -1.8% in 2007 In %, in volume Bulgaria Romania Latvia Lithuania Hungary Malta Ireland Denmark EU12 Slovakia Greece Luxembourg France Finland Poland Austria Spain Cyprus Portugal Czech republic Estonia EU15 Slovenia EU27 Germany Netherlands Belgium Italy Sweden United Kingdom EU27 average: -1.8% EU12 average: +9.3% Source: Eurostat, October Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

France Finland Poland Austria Spain Cyprus Portugal Czech republic Estonia EU15 Slovenia EU27 Germany Netherlands Belgium

8 evolution of sub-national public sector interests in the EU15 Evolution of interests in Bn and as a % of current expenditure from 2000 to 2007 in the EU15 35 Bn % Interests (Bn ) Interests as a % of current expenditure Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

0 1.5 1.0 Interests (Bn ) Interests as a % of current expenditure 5 0.

9 The impact of the 2008 crisis on the financial situation of sub-national governments Financial crisis + Economic crisis Internal Stability Pact Financing costs Expenditure Inflation Cash assets Revenue Value of assets 9 Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

Financing costs Expenditure Inflation Cash assets Revenue Value of assets 9

10 What impact on local public investment? Less room for manœuvre and more constraints EITHER Sub-national public investment is considered as an adjustment variable allowing, if reduced, to contain public deficits OR Sub-national public investment is used as a way to fight against the crisis 10 Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

considered as an adjustment variable allowing, if reduced, to contain public deficits OR

11 Italian Local Authorities and Derivatives: regulation track record DM: OBBLIGO di derivati per copertura rischio di cambio di bond in valuta estera DM: ELENCO TASSATIVO delle operazioni consentite; LIMITE dell 1% all upfront; OBBLIGHI sull individuazione delle controparti MEF: Circolare: chiarito che i derivati non possono essere assistiti da delegazione di pagamento ex TUEL Decreto Legge: SOSPENSIONE PER UN ANNO dell uso dei derivati; prevista nuova regolamentazione 1996 Luglio 2001 Dicembre 2003 Dicembre 2004 Maggio 2006 Dicembre 2007 Luglio 2007 Dicembre ? Giugno Dicembre MEF: Circolare applicativa del DM del dicembre 2003 L.Fin. 2008: OBBLIGO per gli Enti di inserire in bilancio nota esplicativa sui derivati in essere L. Fin. 2002: sì a derivati per piano di ammortamento; OBBLIGO di fornire al MEF informazioni sui derivati sottoscritti L. Fin. 2007: OBBLIGO di invio al MEF di tutta la documentazione contrattuale, pena l inefficacia dei contratti stessi L.Fin. 2009: AUTORIZZAZIONE a ristrutturare i derivati in caso di rinegoziazione del sottostante 11 Italian Subnational debt and debt management perspectives Dexia Crediop Feb. 18, 2009

SOSPENSIONE PER UN ANNO dell uso dei derivati; prevista nuova regolamentazione 1996 Luglio 2001 Dicembre 2003 Dicembre 2004 Maggio 2006 Dicembre 2007 Luglio 2007 Dicembre 2008 2008?

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