INDICATORI ECONOMICI

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1 DIPARTIMENTO DI INGEGNERIA E ARCHITETTURA INDICATORI ECONOMICI Alessandro Massi Pavan Energia per il futuro dal 2013 al e oltre! Sesto Val Pusteria giugno 2013

2 LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY LCOE = & + + & 8760 = ( + 1) ( + 1) 1 = VO&MC [ /year]: variable operation and maintenence costs; - OCS [ ]: overnight capital cost; - CRF [ ]: capital recovery factor; - FO&MC [ /year]: fixed operation and maintenance costs; - CF [ ]: capacity factor; - WACC [%]: weighted average cost of capital; - N [ ]: number of annuities received; - E [ ]: equity D [ ]: dept; - Ke [%]: the return of equity Kd: the cost of dept.

3 PHOTOVOLTAICS LCOE = + & 1 ( 1) OCS [ ]: overnight capital cost; - CRF [ ]: capital recovery factor; - FO&MC [ /year]: fixed operation and maintenance costs; - E 0 [kwh/year]: yield of the plant over the first year of operations; - N [ ]: is the number of annuities received; - d r [%/year]: degradation rate of the PV modules. Massi Pavan A., Lughi V. Photovoltaic in Italy: toward grid parity in the residential electricity market. Algery, 2012

4 PHOTOVOLTAIC LCOE - EXAMPLES - OCS = [ ] /kwp --- FO&MC = 2% of OCS - N = K d = 5.2% --- K e = 8% - E = 50% --- D = 50% --- d r = 0.7%/year City E 0 [kwh/kwp/year] Mean Trieste Roma Palermo E 0 [kwh/kwp/year] Optimal Massi Pavan A., Lughi V. Grid parity in the Italian commercial and industrial market. Alghero, 2013

5 VALORE ATTUALIZZATO NETTO

6 TEMPO DI RITORNO PV NO INCENTIVI NO DETRAZIONE - OCS = /kwp I 0 = ,00 - FO&MC = FS = 2% of OCS Uc k = 3.200,00 - N = K d = 5.2% --- K e = 8% TI = 6.6% - E = 50% --- D = 50% --- d r = 0.7%/year - P n = 100kWp --- E = 1378kWh/kWp/anno - d = 2% --- f = 2% - t = ce = 0.16 /kwh EC k = ,00 - TR = 9 ANNI

7 TEMPO DI RITORNO PV DETRAZIONE FISCALE 50% IN 10 ANNI - OCS = /kwp I 0 = ,00 - FO&MC = FS = 2% of OCS Uc k = 3.200,00 - N = K d = 5.2% --- K e = 8% TI = 6.6% - E = 50% --- D = 50% --- d r = 0.7%/year - P n = 100kWp --- E = 1378kWh/kWp/anno - d = 2% --- f = 2% - t = ce = 0.16 /kwh EC k = ,00 - TR = 7.3 ANNI

8 LCOE FROM REN - LCOE is declining for wind, solar PV, CSP and some biomass technologies; - Hydropower and geothermal electricity are still the cheapest way to generate power; - It is not possible to identify a clear cost hierarchy as each technology has its own supply curve; - The costs of REN are very site specific so that there is not a single «true» LCOE value for each technology.

9 EVOLUTION OF POWER GENERATION COSTS - EXAMPLES IAEA - Paris, 9 January C. Breyer et al. Research and development investments in PV. A limiting factor for a fast PV diffusion? 2010 Gross R. et al. An assessment of future costs estimation metodologies in the electricity generation sector, 2011

10 COSTI IMPIANTI REN Renewable power generation costs in 2012: an overview. IRENA, 2012

11 LCOE REN Nuclear Renewable power generation costs in 2012: an overview. IRENA, 2012

12 TORNADO GRAPH - EXAMPLE Bruckner T. et al. Recent renewable energy cost and performance parameters.

13 INCENTIVI GRID E FUEL PARITY 60 ANNI FA 20 ANNI FA Il costo del kwh fotovoltaico è molto alto: impianti stand alone nello spazio, montagna, isole, zone remote Il costo del kwh da fotovoltaico è ancora alto ma in diminuzione: impianti connessi in rete INCENTIVI Il costo del kwh da fotovoltaico è pari a quello di altre fonte convenzionali FUEL PARITY DOMANI Il costo del kwh da fotovoltaico è pari al prezzo che il consumatore finale paga in bolletta GRID PARITY OGGI

14 DIPARTIMENTO DI INGEGNERIA E ARCHITETTURA GRAZIE PER L ATTENZIONE! Alessandro Massi Pavan [email protected] Energia per il futuro dal 2013 al e oltre! Sesto Val Pusteria giugno 2013