DIPARTIMENTO DI INGEGNERIA E ARCHITETTURA INDICATORI ECONOMICI Alessandro Massi Pavan Energia per il futuro dal 2013 al 2020... e oltre! Sesto Val Pusteria 24-28 giugno 2013
LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY LCOE = & + + & 8760 = ( + 1) ( + 1) 1 = + + + - VO&MC [ /year]: variable operation and maintenence costs; - OCS [ ]: overnight capital cost; - CRF [ ]: capital recovery factor; - FO&MC [ /year]: fixed operation and maintenance costs; - CF [ ]: capacity factor; - WACC [%]: weighted average cost of capital; - N [ ]: number of annuities received; - E [ ]: equity D [ ]: dept; - Ke [%]: the return of equity Kd: the cost of dept. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe_documentation.html
PHOTOVOLTAICS LCOE = + & 1 ( 1) 100 - OCS [ ]: overnight capital cost; - CRF [ ]: capital recovery factor; - FO&MC [ /year]: fixed operation and maintenance costs; - E 0 [kwh/year]: yield of the plant over the first year of operations; - N [ ]: is the number of annuities received; - d r [%/year]: degradation rate of the PV modules. Massi Pavan A., Lughi V. Photovoltaic in Italy: toward grid parity in the residential electricity market. Algery, 2012
PHOTOVOLTAIC LCOE - EXAMPLES - OCS = [1.200 1.600] /kwp --- FO&MC = 2% of OCS - N = 30 --- K d = 5.2% --- K e = 8% - E = 50% --- D = 50% --- d r = 0.7%/year City E 0 [kwh/kwp/year] Mean Trieste 1139 1235 Roma 1278 1378 Palermo 1371 1496 E 0 [kwh/kwp/year] Optimal Massi Pavan A., Lughi V. Grid parity in the Italian commercial and industrial market. Alghero, 2013
VALORE ATTUALIZZATO NETTO
TEMPO DI RITORNO PV NO INCENTIVI NO DETRAZIONE - OCS = 1.400 /kwp I 0 = 140.000,00 - FO&MC = FS = 2% of OCS Uc k = 3.200,00 - N = 30 --- K d = 5.2% --- K e = 8% TI = 6.6% - E = 50% --- D = 50% --- d r = 0.7%/year - P n = 100kWp --- E = 1378kWh/kWp/anno - d = 2% --- f = 2% - t = 0 --- ce = 0.16 /kwh EC k = 22.048,00 - TR = 9 ANNI
TEMPO DI RITORNO PV DETRAZIONE FISCALE 50% IN 10 ANNI - OCS = 1.400 /kwp I 0 = 140.000,00 - FO&MC = FS = 2% of OCS Uc k = 3.200,00 - N = 30 --- K d = 5.2% --- K e = 8% TI = 6.6% - E = 50% --- D = 50% --- d r = 0.7%/year - P n = 100kWp --- E = 1378kWh/kWp/anno - d = 2% --- f = 2% - t = 0 --- ce = 0.16 /kwh EC k = 22.048,00 - TR = 7.3 ANNI
LCOE FROM REN - LCOE is declining for wind, solar PV, CSP and some biomass technologies; - Hydropower and geothermal electricity are still the cheapest way to generate power; - It is not possible to identify a clear cost hierarchy as each technology has its own supply curve; - The costs of REN are very site specific so that there is not a single «true» LCOE value for each technology.
EVOLUTION OF POWER GENERATION COSTS - EXAMPLES IAEA - Paris, 9 January 2010. C. Breyer et al. Research and development investments in PV. A limiting factor for a fast PV diffusion? 2010 Gross R. et al. An assessment of future costs estimation metodologies in the electricity generation sector, 2011
COSTI IMPIANTI REN Renewable power generation costs in 2012: an overview. IRENA, 2012
LCOE REN 2012-2020 Nuclear Renewable power generation costs in 2012: an overview. IRENA, 2012
TORNADO GRAPH - EXAMPLE Bruckner T. et al. Recent renewable energy cost and performance parameters.
INCENTIVI GRID E FUEL PARITY 60 ANNI FA 20 ANNI FA Il costo del kwh fotovoltaico è molto alto: impianti stand alone nello spazio, montagna, isole, zone remote Il costo del kwh da fotovoltaico è ancora alto ma in diminuzione: impianti connessi in rete INCENTIVI Il costo del kwh da fotovoltaico è pari a quello di altre fonte convenzionali FUEL PARITY DOMANI Il costo del kwh da fotovoltaico è pari al prezzo che il consumatore finale paga in bolletta GRID PARITY OGGI
DIPARTIMENTO DI INGEGNERIA E ARCHITETTURA GRAZIE PER L ATTENZIONE! Alessandro Massi Pavan apavan@units.it Energia per il futuro dal 2013 al 2020... e oltre! Sesto Val Pusteria 24-28 giugno 2013