L analisi di rischio come strumento chiave del project management in grandi progetti infrastrutturali

Dimensione: px

Iniziare la visualizzazioe della pagina:

Download "L analisi di rischio come strumento chiave del project management in grandi progetti infrastrutturali"

Emilia Manfredi
6 anni fa
Visualizzazioni

1 L analisi di rischio come strumento chiave del project management in grandi progetti infrastrutturali Dr. Marco Bettelini Amberg Engineering SA, Regensdorf-Watt

Chi siamo Company founded in 1965 260 employees worldwide Focused expertise in underground engineering services Subsidiaries

2 Chi siamo Company founded in employees worldwide Focused expertise in underground engineering services Subsidiaries in 8 countries & 3 continents: Europe, Asia, Americas Projects performed in more than 40 countries ISO certified 2

3 Dove lavoriamo 3

4 Cosa facciamo 4

5 Gotthard Base Tunnel total length 57 km 2 tunnel tubes 2 emergency stations cross-connections every 325 m 100 km/h 250 km/h about 50 passenger trains per day about 250 freight trains per day 5

6 Obiettivi Obiettivi: Tempi Costi Qualità Reliability Availability Maintenability Safety 6

7 Galleria di Base del San Gottardo 7

8 Tempi 8

9 Imprevisti 9

La sicurezza come «moving target» Evoluzione delle esigenze di sicurezza nel corso di un progetto infrastrutturale Modifiche normative Nuove esigenze

10 La sicurezza come «moving target» Evoluzione delle esigenze di sicurezza nel corso di un progetto infrastrutturale Modifiche normative Nuove esigenze Evoluzione del traffico Pressione sui costi Imprevisti L uso di approcci progettuali basati sull analisi di rischio si impone sin dalle fasi iniziali del progetto Time 10

11 Rinnovamento - San Bernardino ( ) 11

12 Mont Blanc - Renovation after Fire, March

13 San Gottardo, Ottobre

14 Analisi di rischio Scenario-based safety analysis provides: Transparent overview of risks Clear insight into the residual risks Excellent decision basis for responsible authority Approach successfully used on many projects 14

15 Analisi quantitativa di rischio (QRA) Frequenza di occorrenza Livello di rischio inaccettabile Misure obbligatorie Livello di rischio accettabile Nessuna misura di sicurezza ulteriore Livello di rischio 15

16 Practical Application Case 1 Existing Tunnel Tunnel Characteristics Bidirectional traffic Length of about m Slope of 6% No emergency exits Weak ventilation system classified as natural ventilation Upgrade Program For the upgrade program of the tunnel, the cost-efficiency of the following safety measurements had to be analysed: Construction of emergency exits in distances of 300 m, 200 m or 100 m Installation of improved lighting (5 cd / m 2 instead of 2 cd / m 2 ) No new ventilation 16

17 Practical Application Case 1 Existing Tunnel Accident rate for the initial condition upwards downwards 17

18 Practical Application Case 1 Existing Tunnel Fire rate for the initial condition upwards downwards 18

19 Practical Application Case 1 Existing Tunnel Fatality rate for the initial condition upper tolerability limit (G II ) upper tolerability limit (G II ) upwards downwards 19 Fatality rate well above the upper tolerability limit (GII) safety measures must be implemented

20 Practical Application Case 1 Existing Tunnel Cost efficiency of safety measures Cost efficiency of combination of measures Fatality rate after combination of measures 20

21 Practical Application Case 2 New Tunnel Two tunnel alternatives: m, slope 5% m, 6.5% 21

22 Practical Application Case 2 New Tunnel Steep tunnel Two alternatives 5%, resp. 6.3% Tunnel Characteristics Bidirectional traffic Length m resp m AADT = veh./d Cross section 12 m. High design level with respect to lighting, ventilation etc. Emergency exits every 275 m 22

23 Practical Application Case 2 New Tunnel Fatality rate for the initial project with gradient > 5% upwards downwards 23

24 Recommendation Based on Risk Assessment Main findings and conclusions The fatality risk originates primarily from accidents The fatality risk from fires is very effectively reduced by means of ventilation and short distances between emergency exits In spite of the reduced rate, the 20% longer tunnel length results in an increased annual risk, because of the increased tunnel length Less injuries from fires, approximately 5% more injuries from accidents and 10% more fatalities from accidents results in a total dis-benefit of approximately 5000 CHF/year With 25 MCHF additional construction cost for the 500 m extension, the annual cost of the measure is estimated to about 1 MCHF The shorter tunnel is safer and cheaper! 24

25 Practical Application Case 2 New Tunnel Two tunnel alternatives: m, slope 5% m, 6.5% Comparable safety level QRA saved 25.3 Mio CHF! 25

26 Porto Novo, Rio de Janeiro 26

27 Conclusioni e raccomandazioni Benefici dell analisi di rischio nel quadro della progettazione di opere infrastrutturali Analisi consistente e oggettiva dei rischi e delle possibili misure di sicurezza Verifica consistente del rapporto costi-benefici a livello di misure di sicurezza Risultati trasparenti, riproducibili e oggettivi Eccellente supporto alle decisioni e netto miglioramento della stabilità del progetto Notevole aumento del livello di flessibilità rispetto ad approcci convenzionali Esperienze positive in tutto il mondo

AE Management Meeting 2015 Ventilation & Safety 28.08.2015 QRA Lungern (Kaiserstuhl) Thank you for your Attention!

28 AE Management Meeting 2015 Ventilation & Safety QRA Lungern (Kaiserstuhl) Thank you for your Attention! Two tunnel alternatives: m, slope 5% m, 6.5% Comparable safety level QRA saved 25.3 Mio CHF! Dr. Marco Bettelini mbettelini@amberg.ch 28

Documenti analoghi

APPARECCHIATURE DI SOLLEVAMENTO LIFTING DEVICES

APPARECCHIATURE DI SOLLEVAMENTO LIFTING DEVICES CHI SIAMO Contec Industry srl è una società di ingegneria che opera principalmente nell ambito della consulenza e progettazione meccanica e industriale e