Electric Vehicles CO2 emissions in Italy Jérôme MASSIANI Marco Byloos
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions
EV claims «EV are Zero Emissions on the road but emit in the plant» «Emissions can be estimated on energy mix» «Emissions during car manufacturing are not so fundamental» «EV can be used to even the energy requirement peak through intelligent charging schemes or Vehicle to grid ««EV can become beneficial to society if fed by renewable»
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions
EV emissions: results and methods Technical Regolatory Source Marg. Method Vehicle Recharge Emissions Grid nature CO2e/km (key-data prod. source) efficiency losses anno Time pattern Capping on energy production Regulation 443 Menga e Ceraolo (2008) Energetic mix 375 g/kwh (ENEL) 55 yes (2010) no Perujo e Ciuffo (2009) M. Benini et al. (2010) Wilson (2013) Rusich e Danielis (2013) Energetic mix 194 g/kwh (elab. from EEA data) Micro simulation yes (MATISSE and MTSIM models) Energetic mix 70 g /km 389,9 g/kwh (source: IEA) Energetic mix 340 g/kwh (source: EPA) 40 (2009) yes yes no 68 (2030) 170 yes (2010) 64 (2013) no yes
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions
Estimation method 45,00 45,00 40,00 45,00 40,00 45,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 35,00 40,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 30,00 35,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 25,00 30,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 20,00 25,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 15,00 20,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 10,00 15,00 5,0010,00 15,00 5,0010,00 0,005,0010,00 0,001 5,00 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0,001 5,00 2 Geotermico 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Solare 11 12 ed 13 eolico 14 15 16 17Idroelettrico 18 19 20 21 22 23 0,001 2 Importazioni Geotermico 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Carbone 10 Solare 11 12 ed 13 eolico 14 15 16 Altri 17Idroelettrico 18 combustibili 19 20 21 22 23 0,001 Gas 2 Importazioni Geotermico 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Carbone 10 Solare 11 12 ed 13 eolico 14 15 16 Altri 17Idroelettrico 18 combustibili 19 20 21 22 23 1 Gas 2 Importazioni Geotermico 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Carbone 10 Solare 11 12 ed 13 eolico 14 15 16 Altri 17Idroelettrico 18 combustibili 19 20 21 22 23 Gas Importazioni Geotermico Elaborazione dati TERNA Carbone Solare e GSE ed eolico del mese di Altri giugno combustibili 2014 Gas Importazioni Elaborazione dati TERNA Carbonee GSE del mese di Altri giugno combustibili 2014 Gas Elaborazione dati TERNA e GSE del mese di giugno 2014 Elaborazione dati TERNA e GSE del mese di giugno 2014 Elaborazione dati TERNA e GSE del mese di giugno 2014 Mw Mw Mw Mw Mw
Estimation method 2 Gas, coal, others MWh 20000 18000 Coal h21 N.Gas h21 Other fuels h21 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 15000 20000 25000 30000 Therm. total MWh Fossil fuel technologies response to demand variation (9:00 PM) 48th week
Estimation method 3 Periodo caldo Agosto Periodo temperato Periodo freddo
Hourly profile of EV reload EVs increase the peak Pasaoglu, G., et al. 2013, Projections for Electric Vehicle Load Profiles in Europe Based on Travel Survey Data.
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Average emissions Scheme The future Conclusions
Emissioni g CO2e/km Sett. Sett. 31 Sett. 37 Sett. 48 Feriali 96,2 98 93,2 94,4 Sabato 96,8 98 92,7 94,3 Domenica 96,7 98,3 92,6 94,6 94 g/km
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Average emissions Reloading schemes A look at the future Conclusions
Schemi di ricarica Valley-filling GW 60 50 40 30 Picco serale V2G: 50 % di deperdizione 20 10 0 Minimo notturno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223 Thermoelectric load +10GWh +30GWh +50GWh +75GWh +100GWh Smooth GW 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Minimo notturno Picco serale 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223 Thermoelectric load +10GWh +30GWh +50GWh +75GWh +100GWh
Schemi aumentano le emissioni g CO2e/km n regolato Valleyfilling settimana settimana 21 settimana 37 settimana 48 feriali Sabato Domenica feriali Sabato Domenica feriali Sabato Domenica feriali Sabato Domenica 96,2 96,8 96,7 98 98 98,3 93,2 92,7 92,6 94,4 94,3 94,6 100,1 98,5 97,6 99,8 100,2 99,6 101,4 95,6 94 106 103,1 100,8 Smooth 99,5 98,7 98,1 100,2 100,3 99,9 98,7 96,3 95,6 105,9 100,9 99,8 Uncoordinated: 94 gco2e/km Valley filling: 102.3 gco2e/km Smooth: 101,7 gco2e/km Schemi aumentano costi sociali costi privati
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Average emissions Reloading schemes A look at the future Conclusions
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Average emissions Reloading schemes A look at the future Conclusions
Prospettive GWh 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Geotermico Eolico Solare Idroeletrico Nucleare Importazioni Carbone Altri combustibili Gas naturale Gas Forte capacità istallata Bassi tassi di utilizzo Moderati costi di attivazione / disattivazione Rinnovabili (40% di energia elettrica prodotta) n rispondono a variazione della domanda
Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions
EV emissions g CO 2 e/km Conventional view Model results Real world ICE Tailpipe emissions Energy generation Vehicle manufacturing 0 nd 123 ** 123 55-65* 94,51 0 25-30 Negl. nd 45-95 28-31 Total 40-100 nd 175-225 176-185 [*] most significant results [**] due to the Regulation (EC) 443/2009 and the European Energy Trade System
Frequent claims «EV are Zero Emissions on the road but emit in the plant» «Emissions can be estimated on energy mix» «Emissions during car manufacturing are not so fundamental» «EV can be used to even the energy requirement peak through intelligent charging schemes or Vehicle to grid ««EV can become beneficial to society if fed by renewable»