IMPATTI DEI SISTEMI ENERGETICI E DEGLI EVENTI NATURALI A cura di Emanuele Negrenti ENEA W k h N i l Si l i Si E i Workshop Nazionale Simulazione Sistema Energetico 26 Marzo 2015
IMPATTI Sustainability according to principles established at EU level is based on three fundamental pillars: Environmental quality Societal aspects Economic growth
Impacts of/on the Energy System The impacts of the Energy System can be significantly increased by accidents caused by technical failures, human errors/malicious actions, and extreme natural events The modelling of ES Impacts is linked to the consideration of these events/phenomena Today we describe a bit models for extreme natural events
Environmental issues Air Water Soil Food pollution due to emissions of dangerous substances (mostly from production and usage of energy) Global effects due to emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O ) (same remark) Noise pollution (primarily from usage : transportation and industry)
Societal impacts some key aspects The Energy system has relevant effects on the quality and the duration of life. Most evident impactsare: are: a) short and long term health effects of environmental pollution (mostly air, water, and food poisoning by a variety of toxic substances released by the Energy System) b) accidents causing injuries and fatalities (e.g. from plants accidents, inflammables transport, transports system accidents, industrial activities)
And a few Economic Aspects The energy system has a range of effectson our economic life : (examples) a) the cost of energy and its consequences on the competitiveness of the production/industrial system b) The cost of living i for individuals, id families, social groups c) the geo political implications of energy supply
Impacts SW tools availability For most of the sustainability issues here mentioned we (ENEA and partners) have experience, or availability, or easy access to a variety of sw tools that can be integrated into a simulation system The missing ones can be reasonably obtained by processing of available recorded/statistical data
Road transport emissions (EC COMMUTE Project TEN assessment)
Inquinamento atmosferico e condizioni meteo È possibile simulare la dispersione a micro scala partendo da una scala globale come mostra l esempio seguente: attraverso un sistema previsionale globale, WRF, un codice meteorologico public domain, calcola ogni 3 ore i campi di vento 3D sull area continentale e poi attraverso una successione di griglie innestate si scende alla scala locale con SWIFT e alla micro scala con Micro SWIFT (codici diagnostici sviluppati da ARIA Technologies): l ultima figura mostra il campo di vento sul centro di New York. DETTAGLI NELLA PRESENTAZIONE DI G. ZANINI) WRF SWIFT Micro SWIFT
Noise fields simulation in Rome Parioli area ISHTAR Project j Soundplan p RR
ISHTAR PROJECT WHO S TEX Input Population + Poll-conc 24/04/2015 Eurocities WG AQ&CC&Noise - 28 11 September 2007
ISHTAR WHO s TEX output exposure of population to air poll. 24/04/2015 Eurocities WG AQ&CC&Noise - 28 12 September 2007
ENVIRONMENT & HEALTH FP6 HENVINET Coordination Action has produced a rich database of Decision Support Tools for assessing the effects on health of environmental pollution Many of those tools can be integrated into a simulation platform for assessing the effects of pollutants emitted by the Energy System
ACCIDENTS modelling Accident take place in various parts of the Energy System One of the most critical sector is road transport Statistical correlations relate fatalities to traffic flows/volumes Future energy scenarios should aim at reducing road traffic and reducing the correlation factors between victims and volumes (smart vehicles, smart roads, automated highways.) Deriving accident flow correlations for future scenarios can require specific studies
EVENTI NATURALI ESTREMI : TSUNAMI
Tsunami 2 di 4
Tsunami 3 di 4
Tsunami 4 di 4
2 Heavy rain flooding Damage scenarios Threatsintensity nd CI elements vulnerability can be correlated to establish the expected extent of damages. Harm scenario CRITIS 2014, Cyprus October 2014 Vittorio Rosato
EXTREME EVENTS 3 : CYCLONES (MAKAY VOYAGER) m