PV in IEA Medium term Market Forecast and Long term Scenarios Roberto VIGOTTI Vice Chair RE Working Party
E uscito l ultimo rapporto della WB
La brutta notizia Il rapporto che esamina i rischi legati ad un riscaldamento climatico di 4 gradi entro la fine del secolo, ma stavolta non sono gli scienziati dell'ipcc o qualche associazione ambientalista a lanciare l'allarme, ma il cuore del gotha economico planetario: il Gruppo della Banca Mondiale. Il verdetto è senza appello: le attività umane sono responsabili del riscaldamento del pianeta e questo riscaldamento si sta già traducendo in cambiamenti osservabili. Senza misure concrete di lotta contro il cambiamento climatico, la comunità internazionale potrebbe subire le conseguenze catastrofiche di un aumento di 4 gradi della temperatura media entro la fine del secolo
La raccomandazione della Banca L'adozione di politiche di sviluppo sostenibile potrebbero in effetti permetterci di limitare il riscaldamento planetario a meno di 2 gradi, Un utilizzo più efficace e più intelligente dell'energia e delle risorse naturali potrebbe permetterci di ridurre radicalmente l'impatto dello sviluppo sul clima, senza per questo rallentare gli sforzi della lotta contro la povertà o la crescita economica. Ogni Paese sceglierà metodi differenti per realizzare una crescita più ecologica, ma in ognuno di essi esistono delle occasioni di crescita verde da sfruttare. Conclude il rapporto: «La previsione di 4 C di riscaldamento semplicemente non deve essere permesso che si verifichi, questo caldo deve essere respinto. Solo azioni a scala internazionali possono farsì che questo accada».
Renewables take their place in the sun Re make up an increasing share of primary energy use in all scenarios, thanks to government support, falling costs, CO2 pricing in some regions and rising fossil fuel prices in the longer term. By 2035, electricity from renewables triples, and will account for almost one third of total electricity output. Solar grows more rapidly 26 times!! than any other renewable technology, and will provide 7,5% of all RE based generation. Wind almost ¼. Renewables become the world s second largest source of power generation by 2015 (roughly half that of coal) and, by 2035, they approach coal as the primary source of global electricity
RE capacity additions per year A total of 3000 GW of Re capacity including replacements is built 2012 2035, more than half of total gross capacity additions in the power sector
Cumulative investment in RE based electricity generation in NPS Cumulative investments of 6 trillion $ required by 2035, with annual investments up to 300 billion $ in 2035. RE accounts 62% of total investement in power generation
IEA and its key publications on RE
The Medium Term RE Market Report The IEA is publishing its first medium term report focused on renewable energy Bottom up, global renewable forecast of renewable electricity capacity and generation over the next 5 years Detailed analysis of 12 OECD countries (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK, US)and China, India, Brazil (~80% of world renewable electricity) For 2012 edition, focus on 8 technologies in power sector Completes slate of IEA MT forecasts: oil, gas, coal
Key trends As a portfolio of renewable technologies matures, global renewable power generation is forecast to rise 40% Supported by policy/market frameworks and economic attractiveness in increasing range of countries and circumstances Technology cost developments, grid/system integration, cost/availability of financing also weigh as key variables High level of economic/policy uncertainty in some countries This projected growth is an acceleration vs previous period Growth is 60% higher over 2011 17 versus 2005 11 Renewable deployment is projected to spread out geographically, with increased activity in emerging markets Deployment spurring economies of scale in some technologies virtuous cycle of improved competition and cost reductions
Non hydro technology deployment spreads out Number of countries with cumulative capacity larger than 100MW (can cover consumption of 100k households) increases significantly Growth areas include Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East 80 60 Number of countries with installed capacity above 100 MW Non-OECD OECD 40 20 0 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 Onshore wind Offshore wind Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean
Generation additions over 2011 17 differ across regions and technology portfolios OECD Americas (+179 TWh) Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Other technologies OECD Asia Oceania (+77 TWh) Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Other technologies OECD Europe (+365 TWh) Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Other technologies Non OECD (+1 220 TWh) Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Other technologies
Medium term solar PV outlook Global capacity to top 230 GW in 2017 (baseline) Markets quickly changing due to changing policy environment (China, Japan, Germany, Italy, etc.) and falling costs Market shifting to good resource areas that don t need subsidies GW 250 Global solar PV capacity forecast 200 150 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Germany China US Japan Italy RoW
Outlook uncertainty significant Germany and Italy s projections already challenged EPIA s range in 2016: 208GW 343GW GW 350 Global solar PV capacity forecasts comparison 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2011 2016 IEA baseline 2016 IEA enhanced 2016 EPIA Moderate 2016 EPIA policy-driven Germany China US Japan Italy RoW
Penetration shares GW 2017 enhanced case 2010/11 power system Benchmark % China 48.1 1050 5% Germany 47.7 157 30% USA 33.0 1040 3% Japan 28.4 287 10% Italy 26.8 105 25% European countries like Germany and Italy could be reaching high PV penetration shares by 2017 Emerging economies but also the US represent much larger potential markets
RE Support Shows Impact on Household Prices ct/kwh EUR 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Generation, transport, distribution VAT Concession fee EEG surcharge CHP law Electricity tax In 2011 PV Generated around 20% of EEG supported energy Accounted for approx 45% of all EEG payments
PV Generation Impacting Spot Markets GW 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223 Power generation in Germany, 14 May 2012 Conventional Wind PV hr 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Phelix Base [EUR/MWh] Phelix Peak [EUR/MWh] 37.99 66.76 38.85 44.49 51.12 56.16 88.07 51.15 55.02 58.95 Spread [%] 149 134 132 124 115 Source: Top, EEX Transparency Platform; Bottom EEX cited as in http://www.agoraenergiewende.de/fileadmin/downloads/agora_energiewende_impulse_kapazitaetsmarkte.pdf
Medium term solar PV manufacturing outlook Amid overcapacity, solar PV industry undergoing major restructuring Selling at zero margins or loss to keep market share Chinese companies taking larger market share Upheaval likely to persist for several years Companies locating manufacturing closer to emerging markets Sunnier countries with high demand growth more attractive (e.g. Asia and Middle East) Capital less costly, more accessible in Asia Chinese companies increasingly produce for large, domestic market
Conclusions Massive improvements in recent years IEA forecasts PV world capacity to increase x 3 4 times over next 5 years However, system and market integration issues emerging in specific countries market reforms needed Moving to new countries and competitive market segments is key Huge long term potential
For further insights and analysis The Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012 online at: www.iea.org Thank you for your attention! roberto.vigotti@gmail.com
Le conseguenze Innalzamento del livello del mare l'agricoltura, le risorse idriche, la salute umana, la biodiversità saranno verosimilmente gravemente colpiti. Queste ripercussioni potrebbero produrre vasti spostamenti di popolazioni, ridurre la sicurezza e perturbare i sistemi economici ed il commercio. Ondate di calore Acidificazione degli oceani Calo delle rese agricole. in tutto il mondo, con gravi rischi per la sicurezza alimentare futura I rischi per i servizi eco sistemi agli esseri umani, rischi gravi per le incidenze negative sulla disponibilità di acqua
Share RE by category and scenario
Growth in renewable power is forecast to accelerate Hydropower remains the main renewable power source (+3.1% p.a.) Non hydro renewable sources grow at double digit annual percentage rates (+14.3% p.a.) TWh 7 000 Global renewable electricity production and forecast 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Geothermal Wind offshore CSP Ocean
Enhanced case Enhanced case is a country specific exercise for 15 countries covered in detail in the report (not the rest of the world) It assumes market specific barriers to RE are overcome 350 2017 Baseline 350 2017 Enhanced 300 RoW 300 RoW 250 Italy 250 Italy 200 Japan 200 Japan 150 US 150 US 100 China 100 Germany 50 Germany 50 China 0 GW TWh 0 GW TWh
Renewables will play a key role in a sustainable future mix in 2050 60.000 TWh 50.000 24% 40.000 30.000 20.000 19% 57% 71% Other RES Wind Solar Bioenergy and wastes Hydro Nuclear Oil Natural gas Coal 10.000-2009 2050 2050 2050 6DS 2DS 2DS hi-ren Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012