SCENARI DI CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO IN ITALIA E NEL MEDITERRANEO

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1 SCENARI DI CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO IN ITALIA E NEL MEDITERRANEO Silvio Gualdi, CMCC "Stato delle conoscenze riguardo ai cambiamenti climatici in Italia Ministero dell'ambiente sala Europa, 27 Febbraio 2012, Roma

2 Who we are An Italian research center on climate science and policy A network of Italian public and private research institutions Funded by the Italian Ministries MIUR, MATTM and MEF Within the framework of the National Research Plan Partners: INGV - National Institute on Geophisics and Vulcanology UNISA - University of Salento UNISANNIO - University of Sannio CIRA - Italian Center for Spatial Research FEEM - Enrico Mattei ENI Foundation UV -University Ca Foscari of Venice 2

3 Who we are Associated Centers: CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Dipartimento Terra Ambiente University of Tuscia IAMB - Istituto Agronomico Mediterraneo di Bari CRMPA-Centro di Ricerca in Matematica Pura e Applicata University of Sassari Consorzio SPACI OGS - Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale18 3

4 Network 4

5 Activities Numerical Methods Climate Research Software Development Agricultural Impacts: Forests Agricultural Impacts: Crops Numerical Simulations Impacts: Energy and Economy Impacts: Mediterranean Sea Impacts: The Coastal Zone 5 Impacts: Health

6 Divisione di Servizi Climatici (SERC) Produzione di previsioni climatiche e proiezioni di cambiamento climatico e della comunicazione dei risultati e delle informazioni ottenute a diverse tipologie di utilizzatori (decisori e portatori d interesse dall industria, organismi politici pubblici e di pianificazione e infine scienziati e ricercatori di altre discipline) Le previsioni climatiche e le proiezioni di cambiamento climatico sono basate sui modelli del CMCC, globali e regionali ad alta risoluzione. Ricerca nell ambito delle politiche di adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici e attività di supporto tecnico-scientifico alle istituzioni nei processi di negoziazioni multilaterali nel campo dei cambiamenti climatici (EU, IPCC, UNFCCC). 4 Gruppi: 1. Previsioni Climatiche: scale (intra-)stagionali - multiannuali 2. Proiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico: breve (decennali) e lungo (centennali) termine 3. Info-Clima: interazione con gli stakeholders e utilizzatori 4. Relazioni Istituzionali & Politiche di adattamento

7 SERC Organization Chart SERC Director S. Gualdi Division Manager L. Amato System and Numerical Support Assistant I. Mazzocco F. Massari M. Galisi Climate Predictions A. Bellucci Info-Climate A. Lanza Climate Change Projections S. Gualdi Institutional Relations & Adaptation Policies S. Castellari P. Athanasiadis E. Banos A. Sanna S. Medri A. Borrelli S. Materia E. Scoccimarro M. Zampieri S. Venturini L. Reda

8 The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration) Land Surface SILVA (Alessandri 2006) Atmosphere ECHAM5 (from 200-to-80 km) (Roeckner et al 1996, 2003) Sea Ice LIM (ORCA2) (Timmerman et al, 2005) Marine Bio- Geochemistry PELAGOS Vichi et al Coupler OASIS3 (Valcke et al, 2000) Global Ocean OPA 8.2 (ORCA2) (Madec et al, 1998) Med Sea NEMO-MFS (~6.7 km) Oddo et al. (2009) Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment

9 The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration) CMCC-CM PHYSICAL CORE Fogli et al. (2010) Scoccimarro et al. (2011) Atmosphere ECHAM5 (from 200-to-80 km) (Roeckner et al 1996, 2003) Coupler OASIS3 (Valcke et al, 2000) Global Ocean OPA 8.2 (ORCA2) (Madec et al, 1998) Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment

10 The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration) Land Surface SILVA (Alessandri 2006) Sea Ice LIM (ORCA2) (Timmerman et al, 2005) Marine Bio- Geochemistry PELAGOS Vichi et al Atmosphere ECHAM5 (from 200-to-80 km) (Roeckner et al 1996, 2003) Coupler OASIS3 (Valcke et al, 2000) Global Ocean OPA 8.2 (ORCA2) (Madec et al, 1998) CMCC-CESM CARBON CYCLE Vichi et al. (2011) Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment

11 The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration) CMCC-CMED FOCUS ON THE MEDITERRANE AN REGION Gualdi et al. (2011) Atmosphere ECHAM5 (from 200-to-80 km) (Roeckner et al 1996, 2003) Coupler OASIS3 (Valcke et al, 2000) Global Ocean OPA 8.2 (ORCA2) (Madec et al, 1998) Med Sea NEMO-MFS (~6.7 km) Oddo et al. (2009) Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment

12 Land Surface SILVA (Alessandri 2006) The CMCC Climate Model Atmosphere ECHAM5 (from 200-to-80 km) (Roeckner et al 1996, 2003) Coupler OASIS3 (Valcke et al, 2000) Initialization (off-line) Atmospheric I.C. from AMIP-type runs or from Reanalyses (ERA) Sea Ice LIM (ORCA2) (Timmerman et al, 2005) Marine Bio- Geochemistry PELAGOS Vichi et al Global Ocean OPA 8.2 (ORCA2) (Madec et al, 1998) Med Sea NEMO-MFS (~6.7 km) Oddo et al. (2009) Ocean initial conditions from spin-up or from CMCC analyses Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment

13 How do we use our climate model? Climate simulations: explore the mechanisms that drive the climate variability and climate change. Process oriented investigations on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Climate projections: assess the climate change signal according to prescribed scenarios of radiative forcing. Generally long simulations starting from spin-up initial conditions. Identification of long-term trends and of changes in the statistics of parameters of interest. Short-term projections: assess the climate variations due to both the internal variability and changes in the external forcings. Ensembles of shortterm (~10-to-30 years) projections, but initialized with observed conditions (specific start date). Change in the statistics of parameters of interest. Seasonal predictions: assess the climate variations mostly due to the internal variability of the climate system. 6-to-12 month simulations initialized with observed conditions (specific start date). Prediction of possible anomalous conditions in the current statistics (current climate).

14 Future Climate Change Projections Deviation of the global mean surface temperature (wrt mean) T2m trend DJF Prec trend DJF T2m trend JJA 10*( C/decade) Prec trend JJA (mm/day)/decade T2m and Precipitation projected trends

15 Short Term Projections (Decadal Predictions) 30-year hindcast/forecast simulations grouped into 3-members ensembles, for different start dates CMCC CGCM (ECHAM5+OPA/LIM) CMIP5 GHG & aerosol RF RCP4.5 scenario (2005 onward) solar variability ocean init.: from ODA products RCP

16 Short Term Projections (Decadal Predictions) Short-term fluctuations due to both natural variability and anthropogenic radiative forcing North Atlantic annual-mean SST Observ Time series of SSTA in the North Atlantic [0-60N;50W-10W] Hindcast for 5-prediction years and Observations (5-year running mean) Some predictive skill is evident when 5-yrs slices out of each hindcast simulation are retained

17 Downscaling LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM From Global Horizontal resolution: 14 km Vertical resolution: 40 levels Non-hydorstatic To Local

18 Downscaling LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM From Global Horizontal resolution: 8 km Vertical resolution: 40 levels Non-hydorstatic Orography To Local

19 Downscaling LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM From Global Horizontal resolution: 2.7 km Vertical resolution: 40 levels Non-hydorstatic To Local 1 9

20 Summary # Simulation CMCC-CESM Earth sys-model CMCC-CMS stratosphere CMCC-CM 3.1 Pre-industrial control X X X 3.2 Historical ( ) X X X 3.3 AMIP ( ) X X 4.1 RCP4.5 ( ) X 4.2 RCP8.5 ( ) X X X 6.1 Idealized + 1% CO2/yr X X 1.2 Decadal predictions ( ) X X Preindustrial (pre-1850) : 300 years Historical ( ): 156 years 21 st Century scenario RCP4.5: 96 years 21 st Century scenario RCP8.5: 96 years 1%/year CO2 increase (up to 4xCO2): 140 years

21 GRAZIE