FUNZIONE FINANZA E WEALTH MANAGEMENT IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2017 Edition)

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1 IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2017 Edition) GDP(Bln $) % of Total GDP % 2017 GDP % 2018 CPI % 2017 CPI % 2018 Unempl. % 2017 Unempl. % 2018 World 75, % 3.5% 3.4% - - Advanced Economies 46, % % 2.0% 1.9% 6.0% 5.8% EM/Dev. Economies 29, % % 4.7% 4.4% - - Europe Euro 11, % 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 9.2% 8.8% Austria % 1.4% 1.3% 2.1% 1.8% 5.9% 5.9% Belgium % 1.6% 1.5% 2.0% 1.7% 7.8% 7.6% Cyprus % 2.5% 2.3% 1.5% 1.4% 11.3% 10.2% Estonia % 2.5% 2.8% 3.2% 2.5% 8.3% 8.9% Finland % 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 8.5% 8.3% France 2, % 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 9.6% 9.3% Germany 3, % 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 4.2% 4.2% Greece % 2.2% 2.7% 1.3% 1.4% 21.9% 21.0% Ireland % 3.5% 3.2% 0.9% 1.5% 6.5% 6.3% Italy 1, % 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 11.4% 11.0% Latvia % 3.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.5% 9.4% 9.2% Lithuania % 2.8% 3.1% 2.8% 2.0% 7.4% 7.2% Luxembourg % 3.7% 3.5% 1.4% 1.3% 5.9% 5.7% Malta % 4.1% 3.5% 1.5% 1.6% 4.7% 4.7% Netherlands % 2.1% 1.8% 0.9% 1.4% 5.4% 5.3% Portugal % 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 10.6% 10.1% Slovak Republic % 3.3% 3.7% 1.2% 1.5% 7.9% 7.4% Slovenia % 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 7.0% 6.6% Spain 1, % 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 1.4% 17.7% 16.6% Czech Republic % 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 3.8% 4.2% Sweden % 2.7% 2.4% 1.4% 1.6% 6.7% 6.7% Norway % 1.2% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 4.5% 4.2% Denmark % 1.5% 1.7% 0.7% 1.1% 5.8% 5.8% Switzerland % 1.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.7% 3.0% 2.9% United Kingdom 2, % 1.7% 1.5% 2.5% 2.6% 4.9% 5.1% Emerging Europe Turkey % 2.5% 3.3% 10.1% 9.1% 11.5% 11.0% Poland % 3.4% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3% 5.5% 5.3% Romania % 4.2% 3.4% 1.3% 3.2% 5.4% 5.2% Hungary % 2.9% 3.0% 2.5% 3.3% 4.4% 4.3% North America United States 18, % 2.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 4.7% 4.6% Canada 1, % 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 6.9% 6.8% Mexico 1, % 1.9% 2.0% 4.8% 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% South America Brazil 1, % 0.3% 1.3% 4.4% 4.3% 12.1% 11.6% Argentina % 2.2% 2.3% 25.6% 18.7% 7.4% 7.3% Colombia % 2.3% 3.0% 4.5% 3.2% 9.5% 9.3% Venezuela % -7.4% -4.1% 720.5% % 25.3% 28.2% Peru % 3.5% 3.7% 3.1% 2.6% 6.7% 6.7% Chile % 1.7% 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 7.0% 6.8% Advanced Asia Japan 4, % 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 3.1% 3.1% Australia 1, % 3.1% 3.0% 2.0% 2.4% 5.2% 5.1% Newly Industrial Asian Econ Korea 1, % 2.7% 2.8% 1.8% 1.9% 3.8% 3.6% Taiwan % 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 4.0% 4.0% Hong Kong % 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% Singapore % 2.2% 2.6% 1.1% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% China 11, % 6.7% 6.4% 2.4% 2.3% 4.0% 4.0% India 2, % 7.2% 7.7% 4.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% Asean-5 Indonesia % 5.1% 5.3% 4.5% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% Thailand % 3.0% 3.3% 1.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% Malaysia % 4.5% 4.7% 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.2% Philippines % 6.8% 6.9% 3.6% 3.3% 6.0% 5.5% Vietnam % 6.5% 6.3% 4.9% 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% Pakistan % 5.0% 5.2% 4.3% 5.0% 6.0% 6.1% Commonwealth of Independent Russia 1, % 1.4% 1.4% 4.5% 4.2% 5.5% 5.5% Ukraine % 2.0% 3.2% 11.5% 9.5% 9.0% 8.7% Middle East and North Africa Saudi Arabia % 0.1% 1.1% 3.8% 5.1% - - United Arab Emirates % 1.5% 4.4% 2.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% Egypt % 3.5% 4.5% 22.0% 16.9% 12.6% 11.8% Israel % 2.9% 3.0% 0.7% 1.4% 4.8% 4.8% Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa % 1.0% 1.2% 6.2% 5.5% 27.4% 27.7% N.B. in grassetto projections summary July

2 La settimana macroeconomica: dati diffusi Paese Giorno Ora Dato Periodo Rif Precedente Attuale USA 13-set 14:30 Indice prezzi alla produzione ago M/M -0,1 0,2 USA 13-set 14:30 Indice prezzi alla produzione "core" ago M/M -0,1 0,1 USA 13-set 14:30 Indice prezzi alla produzione ago Y/Y 1,9 2,4 USA 13-set 14:30 Indice prezzi alla produzione "core" ago Y/Y 1,8 2,0 USA 13-set 20:00 Deficit pubblico mensile ago -107,1B -107,7B USA 14-set 14:30 Prezzi al consumo ago M/M 0,1 0,4 USA 14-set 14:30 Prezzi al consumo "core" ago M/M 0,1 0,2 USA 14-set 14:30 Prezzi al consumo ago Y/Y 1,7 1,9 USA 14-set 14:30 Prezzi al consumo "core" ago Y/Y 1,7 1,7 USA 15-set 14:30 Manifattura Stato di New York set 25,2 24,4 USA 15-set 14:30 Vendite al dettaglio ago M/M 0,3 r -0,2 USA 15-set 14:30 Vendite al dettaglio "core" ago M/M 0,4 r 0,2 USA 15-set 15:15 Produzione industriale ago M/M 0,4 r -0,9 USA 15-set 15:15 Utilizzazione impianti ago 76,9 r 76,1 USA 15-set 16:00 Fiducia dei consumatori (U.of Michigan) set P 96,8 95,3 USA 15-set 16:00 Scorte societarie lug M/M 0,5 0,2 EURO 13-set 11:00 Produzione industriale lug M/M -0,6 0,1 EURO 13-set 11:00 Produzione industriale lug Y/Y 2,8 r 3,2 EURO 14-set 08:00 EU27 immatricolazioni nuove auto ago Y/Y 2,1 5,6 EURO 15-set 11:00 Bilancia commerciale lug 26,6B 23,2B EURO 15-set 11:00 Costo del lavoro 2Q Y/Y 1,4 r 1,8 UK 12-set 10:30 Prezzi al consumo ago M/M -0,1 0,6 UK 12-set 10:30 Prezzi al consumo ago Y/Y 2,6 2,9 UK 12-set 10:30 Prezzi al consumo "core" ago Y/Y 2,4 2,7 UK 12-set 10:30 Prezzi alla produzione ago M/M 0,1 0,4 UK 12-set 10:30 Prezzi alla produzione ago Y/Y 3,2 3,4 UK 13-set 10:30 Salari settimanali medi 3M lug Y/Y 2,1 2,1 UK 13-set 10:30 Utili settimanali escl. Bonus medi 3M lug Y/Y 2,1 2,1 UK 13-set 10:30 ILO Tasso di disoccupazione 3m lug 4,4 4,3 UK 14-set 13:00 Tasso bancario BoE 0,25 0,25 UK 14-set 13:00 BoE target acquisto attivi set 435B 435B JAP 11-set 01:50 Ordini di macchinari lug M/M -1,9 8,0 JAP 11-set 01:50 Ordini di macchinari lug Y/Y -5,2-7,5 JAP 11-set 01:50 Massa monetaria M3 ago Y/Y 3,4 3,4 JAP 13-set 01:50 Prezzi alla produzione ago M/M 0,3 0,0 JAP 13-set 01:50 Prezzi alla produzione ago Y/Y 2,6 2,9 JAP 14-set 06:30 Produzione industriale lug F M/M -0,8-0,8 JAP 14-set 06:30 Produzione industriale lug F Y/Y 4,7 4,7 JAP 14-set 06:30 Utilizzazione impianti lug M/M 2,1-1,8 CHINA 14-set 04:00 Vendite al dettaglio ago Y/Y 10,4 10,1 CHINA 14-set 04:00 Investimenti attivi urbani fissi YTD ago Y/Y 8,3 7,8 CHINA 14-set 04:00 Produzione industriale ago Y/Y 6,4 6,0 INDIA 12-set 14:00 Prezzi al consumo ago Y/Y 2,36 3,36 INDIA 12-set 14:00 Produzione industriale lug Y/Y -0,2 r 1,2 INDIA 14-set 08:30 Prezzi all'ingrosso ago Y/Y 1,88 3,24 Legenda: Y/Y = anno su anno, M/M = mese su mese, Q/Q = trimestre su trimestre, K = migliaia, M = milioni, B = miliardi, r = dato rivisto, P = dato preliminare, F = dato finale 4

3 La settimana macroeconomica USA GDP PERSONAL SPENDING & INCOME LABOR MARKET GDP (in Bln $) at current dollars 19,247 Personal Spending curr.$ (Bln $) 13,383 Unemployment Rate % (U3) 4.4% GDP (in Bln $) at constant dollars 17,030 m/m% 0.3% Unemployed (K) 7,132 GDP q/q%annualized 3.0% y/y% 4.2% US Labor Force Participation Rate % 62.9% GDP y/y% 2.2% Personal Spending constant$ (Bln $ 11,909 Employment-Population-Ratio % 60.1% GDP % Deflator q/q%ann. 1.0% m/m% 0.2% Persons who currently want a job 5,844 GDP % Deflator y/y% 1.6% y/y% 2.7% Part-timers for economic reasons (K) 5,255 Consumer Spending (Bln $) 11,854 PCE Deflator m/m% 0.1% US Unemployment Duration 27 Week 24.7% Cons.Spending/GDP% 69.6% PCE Deflator y/y% 1.4% Underemployment-rate (U6) 8.6% Consumer Spending q/q%ann. 3.3% PCE Deflator-Core m/m% 0.1% Jobless Claims (K) 284 Gross Fixed Investments (Bln $) 2,923 PCE Deflator-Core y/y% 1.4% Continuing Claims (K) 1,944 Gross Fixed Investments/GDP% 17.2% Personal Income curr.$ (Bln $) 16,450 Employed (K) 153,439 Gross Fixed Investments q/q%ann. 3.6% m/m% 0.4% Non-farm payrolls (K) 156 Fixed Investments q/q%ann. 3.6% y/y% 2.7% Manufacturing payrolls (K) 36 Non-residential Construc q/q%ann. 6.9% Disposable Income constant$ (Bln 12,823 Average hourly earnings m/m% 0.1% Structures q/q%ann. 6.2% m/m% 0.3% Average hourly earnings y/y% 2.5% Equipment & Software q/q%ann. 4.1% y/y% 1.3% Federal Minimum Wage in $ per hour 7.25 Residential Construc q/q%ann. -6.5% Personal Saving (Bln $) 510 Productivity y/y% 1.3% Government Spending q/q%ann. -0.3% Saving Rate % 3.5% Unit Labor Costs y/y% -0.2% Net Exports (Bln $) -614 INDUSTRIAL HOUSING MARKET Exports q/q%ann. 3.7% Industrial Production m/m% -0.9% Housing-starts (K) 1,155 Imports q/q%ann. 1.6% Industrial Production y/y% 1.5% y/y% -5.4% Net Exports Contribution GDP%Grow 0.21% Industrial Capacity Utilization % 76.1% Building-permits (K) 1,230 Change in Inventories (Bln $) 1.8 Manufacturing m/m% -0.3% Existing-home-sales (K) 5,440 Inventories Contribution GDP%Grow 0.02% Manufacturing y/y% 1.5% y/y% 2.1% Corporate Profits (Bln $) 2,136 Mining m/m% -0.8% New-home-sales (K) 571 q/q% 1.3% Utilities m/m% -5.4% y/y% -8.9% y/y% 7.0% Factory Orders m/m% -3.3% New Home Inventory (000k) 276 Capex/GDP% 6.2% Factory Orders y/y% 4.9% Construction Spending (Bln $) 1,212 Real GDP Pro-Capita 52,139 Durable Goods Orders m/m% -6.8% y/y% 1.8% Nominal GDP Pro-Capita 58,926 Durable Goods Orders Ex-transp m/ 0.6% Construction Spending/GDP% 6.3% GOVERNMENT DEFICIT & DEBT Durable Goods Orders y/y% 4.4% Homebuyer Affordability 148 Fiscal-Balance yearly (Bln $) -586 Ism-Manufacturing Y-Mortgage Rate % 3.8% Fiscal-Balance/GDP% -3.70% Book to Bill Ratio (Semiconductors) 1.06 Delinquencies as a % of Tot Loans 4.2% Fiscal-Balance/GDP% (IMF) % Chicago PMI 58.9 Foreclosures as a % of Tot Loans 1.3% US Total Public Debt Outstanding (B 19,845 Philadelphia FED 18.9 S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 y/y% 5.65% Government-Debt/GDP% 104.8% Empire Manufacturing NY 24.4 PRICES Government-Debt/GDP% (IMF) % Richmond Manufacturing 14.0 CPI m/m% 0.40% CURRENT ACCOUNT & TRADE BALANCE RETAIL SALES & SERVICES CPI y/y% 1.90% Current-Account last quarter (Bln $) Retail Sales m/m% -0.2% CPI ex-food & energy m/m% 0.20% Current-Account/GDP% -2.36% Retail Sales y/y% 3.2% CPI ex-food & energy y/y% 1.70% Current-Account/GDP % (IMF) % Retail Sales ex-auto m/m% 0.2% PPI Final Demand m/m% 0.20% Trade Balance yearly (Bln $) Retail Sales ex-auto y/y% 3.6% PPI Final Demand y/y% 2.40% Trade Balance last month (Bln $) Ism Non-Manufacturing 55.3 PPI Final Dem. Ex-food-&-ener. y/y% 2.00% with China monthly (Bln $) Consumer Confidence (Michigan) 95.3 PPI m/m% (OLD) 0.50% with Euro monthly (Bln $) Consumer Confidence (C.Board) PPI y/y% (OLD) 2.90% with UK monthly (Bln $) -0.2 LEADING INDICATORS PPI Intermediate-Goods y/y% 4.10% with Japan monthly (Bln $) -5.8 Leading Index m/m% 0.3% PPI Crude-Goods y/y% 6.78% Exports m/m% -0.3% Leading Index y/y% 3.9% Prezzi all'import y/y% 1.50% Exports y/y% 4.9% Coincident Index m/m% 0.3% Prezzi all'export y/y% 0.80% Imports m/m% -0.2% Lagging Index m/m% 0.1% Faofoodi Index Imports y/y% 5.1% Coincident/Lagging Ratio 92.7 Faofoodi Index m/m% -1.30% INVENTORIES MONEY SUPPLY Faofoodi Index y/y% 6.03% Busness Inventories (Bln $) 1,874 Money Supply (Bln $) M2 13,669 FEDERAL-RESERVE Business Inventories m/m% 0.2% Money Supply m/m% 4.0% FED-Funds-rate % 1.25% Business Inventories y/y% 3.0% Money Supply y/y% 5.3% Discount Rate % 1.75% Inventory/Sales Ratio 1.38 Consumer credit monthly (Bln $) FED Total Assets (Bln $) 4,471 Wholesale Invenories m/m% 0.6% Consumer credit outstanding (Bln $ FED Treasuries (Bln $) 2,465 Wholesale Invenories y/y% 3.3% Home mortgage outstanding (Bln $ 9836 Foreign purchases of $ Assets (Bln $ 34.4 USA: i prezzi alla produzione ritornano a crescere nel mese di agosto MACRO INDICATORS I prezzi alla produzione nel mese di agosto sono cresciuti dello 0,2% m/m vs estimate +0,3% m/m, dopo il -0,1% m/m di luglio. Su base annua il ritmo di crescita si è irrobustito passando da +1,9% a +2,4% vs estimate +2,5% y/y. Trattasi del miglior risultato negli ultimi quattro mesi. Il dato "core" ha segnato invece un +0,1% m/m vs estimate +0,2% m/m per un +2,0% y/y vs estimate +2,1% y/y. Anche in questo caso si denota un surriscaldamento dei prezzi. Il PPI legato alla voce goods, che impatta sul risultato finale per più di un terzo, ha registrato un +0,5% m/m dopo il -0,1% m/m di luglio, quello legato invece alla voce services, che impatta per i restanti circa due terzi, un +0,1% m/m dopo il -0,2% m/m di luglio ================ Aug. July June May April March Feb. ================ Weight Final Demand Change Total Final demand % 0.2% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5

4 ex food/energy/trade % 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Goods % 0.5% -0.1% 0.1% -0.6% 0.5% -0.1% 0.4% Food 5.399% -1.3% 0.0% 0.6% -0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% Energy 5.505% 3.3% -0.3% -0.5% -2.8% 0.5% -2.9% 0.9% ex food/energy % 0.2% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% Services % 0.1% -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% -0.3% Trade % 0.0% -0.5% -0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% -1.2% Trans/warehousing 4.986% 0.3% -0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% -1.0% 0.4% Other n/a 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% USA: PPI +2,4% y/y USA: il bilancio federale continua a crescere Il Bilancio federale ha chiuso il mese di agosto con un disavanzo di 107,7 Bln $, inferiore alle attese (-119,0 Bln $) e leggermente più ampio di quello di un anno fa (-107,1 Bln $). Il dato è frutto di entrate pari a 226,3 Bln $, in calo del 2,2% y/y, a fronte di una spesa complessiva di 334,0 Bln $, in calo dell 1,3% y/y). Su base YTD il deficit complessivo ammonta a 673,7 Bln $, in aumento dell 8,8% y/y, per via di entrate complessive pari a 2.966,2 Bln $ (+1,9% y/y) e di uscite pari a 3.639,9 Bln $ (+3,1% y/y). Aug. Aug. Current Prior FYTD FYTD Total Balance -$ $ $ $ Total receipts $ $ $2, $2, Total spending $ $ $3, $3, Means of Financing Surplus/Deficit Public borrow -$ $ $ $ Operating cash -$ $ $ $ Other means $ $ $ $ Fed earnings $7.010 $9.815 $ $ USA: il deficit pubblico mensile è pari a 107,7 Bln $ USA: i prezzi al consumo accelerano nel mese di agosto I prezzi al consumo nel mese di agosto sono cresciuti dello 0,4% m/m vs estimate +0,3% m/m, dopo il +0,1% m/m del mese precedente. Trattasi dell aumento maggiore degli ultimi sette mesi. Su base annua il dato si è mosso verso l alto di due decimali da +1,7% a +1,9% vs estimate +2,0% y/y. Per la quarta volta di fila il dato si è mantenuto sotto la soglia target del +2,0% y/y. Il CPI core (ex food & energy) è cresciuto dello 0,2% m/m, in linea con le attese, dopo il +0,1% m/m del mese precedente, per un +1,7% y/y vs estimate +1,6% y/y, in linea con il dato di luglio. Il dato, inferiore al +2,0% y/y per il quinto mese di fila, si muove sui minimi da gennaio Nel mese di agosto il CPI legato alla voce energy è cresciuto del 2,8% m/m per un +6,4% y/y, quello housing dello 0,4% m/m per un +2,9% y/y, quello dei servizi dello 0,3% m/m per un +2,5% y/y e quello legato al food dello 0,1% m/m per un +1,1% y/y. Nonostante l ultimo report abbia riservato delle piacevoli sorprese, l inflazione continua a preoccupare la Fed più della crescita, anche se quest ultima potrebbe difatti subire un rallentamento nel terzo trimestre a causa degli uragani Harvey e Irma. ================ Aug. July June May April March Aug. ================ 6

5 NSA Weight YOY% All items 100.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% -0.3% 1.9% ex-food/energy 79.06% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 1.7% (3 decimal) % 0.114% 0.119% 0.063% 0.071% % n/a 3-mo. annualized % 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.6% n/a ex-food 86.33% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% -0.2% 0.2% -0.4% 2.1% ex-energy 92.73% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 1.6% Energy 7.28% 2.8% -0.1% -1.6% -2.7% 1.1% -3.2% 6.4% Services 63.98% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -0.1% 2.5% ex-energy 60.19% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 2.5% Housing 42.92% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 2.9% OER Residences 24.61% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.3% OER Primary 23.49% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.3% Fuels & util. 5.16% 0.1% -0.2% -0.3% 0.5% 0.9% -0.3% 3.2% Food/beverages 14.61% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% Food 13.67% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% Apparel 2.99% 0.1% 0.3% -0.1% -0.8% -0.3% -0.7% -0.6% Transportation 15.36% 1.4% -0.1% -0.7% -1.4% 0.1% -1.4% 2.8% Medical care 8.54% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1% 1.8% Recreation 5.70% 0.2% 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 1.5% Education, comm. 6.71% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -1.8% -2.6% Pers. computers 0.27% -0.4% 1.1% 0.7% -0.9% -0.6% -1.5% -3.3% Other good, serv. 3.19% -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.2% Tobacco 0.69% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% 0.1% 4.2% 0.5% 6.3% Commodities 36.02% 0.5% 0.0% -0.3% -0.7% 0.1% -0.7% 0.9% ex-food/bev % 0.8% -0.1% -0.5% -1.3% 0.1% -1.3% 0.8% ex-food/energy 18.87% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.2% -0.3% -0.9% USA: CPI +1,9% y/y USA: Empire Manufacturing NY in ripiegamento a settembre L Empire Manufacturing NY nel mese di settembre è peggiorato di otto decimali, passando da 25,2 a 24,4 punti vs estimate 18,0 punti. Ciononostante ben otto delle nove principali sotto-voci si sono mosse verso l alto tra cui prices paid, prices received, new orders e number of employees. In ripiegamento solo la sotto-voce average workweek. Rispetto al mese precedente quando le sottovoci inventories e unfilled orders erano in territorio negativo, a settembre non si registra alcuna negatività. 6 Sept. Aug. July June May April March mo Avg. General Business Conditions One Month Change n/a Prices Paid Prices Received New Orders Shipments Delivery Time Inventories Unfilled Orders Number of Employees Average Workweek General Bus. 6M Ahead Prices Paid Prices Received New Orders Shipments

6 Delivery Time Inventories Unfilled Orders Number of Employees Average Workweek Capital Expenditures Technology Spending USA: Empire Manufacturing NY a 24,4 punti USA: vendite al dettaglio inaspettatamente in calo Le vendite al dettaglio nel mese di agosto, pari a 474,8 Bln $, sono cadute dello 0,2% m/m vs estimate +0,1% m/m, dopo il +0,3% m/m di luglio. Su base annua il dato NSA si è attestato a +3,5% e il dato SA a +3,2%. Il dato core, ex-auto, ha registrato un +0,2% m/m vs estimate +0,5% m/m, dopo il +0,4% m/m del mese precedente, per un +4,0% y/y (NSA) e un +3,6% y/y (SA). Nell ultimo mese la voce che è cresciuta maggiormente su base congiunturale è stata quella gasoline stations (+2,5%). Su base annua la migliore e peggiore performance NSA interessa rispettivamente la voce building materials (+8,2%) e la voce electronics (-3,3%). Il Dipartimento del Commercio ha detto in una nota speciale che non ha potuto isolare l effetto dell uragano Harvey sui dati perché tiene conto di attività a livello nazionale e nei distretti interessati dal passaggio di Harvey e Irma la raccolta dei dati è stata ritardata. Aug. July June May April Aug. Aug. YoY YoY SA NSA Retail & food service -0.2% 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 3.2% 3.5% (2-decimals) -0.21% 0.28% -0.06% 0.04% 0.33% 3.17% 3.53% Ex-autos 0.2% 0.4% -0.2% -0.2% 0.3% 3.6% 4.0% Ex-autos & gas -0.1% 0.5% -0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 3.3% 3.7% (2-decimals) -0.09% 0.48% -0.06% 0.10% 0.36% 3.33% 3.70% Ex-gas -0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 2.9% 3.3% Ex-autos & build mat. 0.2% 0.3% -0.3% -0.2% 0.3% 3.3% 3.6% Ex-food service -0.3% 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 3.3% 3.6% Ex-bld mat,auto dlrs,gas -0.1% 0.5% -0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 2.8% 3.2% Ex-fd,gas,bdg mat,dlrs(*) -0.2% 0.6% -0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 2.9% 3.2% (2-decimals) -0.17% 0.56% -0.24% 0.05% 0.53% 2.93% 3.20% Ex-food service & vehicles 0.1% 0.4% -0.3% -0.3% 0.3% 3.8% 4.2% Aug. July June May April March Aug. 3-mo. Average YoY Annualized NSA Retail & food service 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 2.5% 4.2% n/a Ex-autos 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 3.3% 4.9% 6.2% n/a Ex-gas 2.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 3.3% n/a Ex-autos & build mat. -0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 3.5% 4.4% 5.5% n/a Ex-autos & gas 1.7% 2.4% 2.9% 4.4% 4.7% 5.2% n/a Ex-food service 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.1% n/a Ex-build mat. & auto dlrs -0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 3.3% 4.1% 5.2% n/a Ex-fd,gas,bdg mat & dlrs 1.1% 2.9% 3.9% 5.1% 4.0% 3.6% n/a MOM% Motor vehicles, parts -1.6% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% -0.5% 1.9% Furniture 0.4% -0.5% 0.5% 1.0% -0.5% 1.7% 5.9% Electronics -0.7% -1.0% -1.2% -1.5% 1.8% 2.8% -3.3% 8

7 Building materials -0.5% 0.9% 0.8% -0.2% -0.1% -1.8% 8.2% Food, beverages 0.3% 0.2% -0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 2.8% Health, personal care 0.1% 0.2% -0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% Gasoline stations 2.5% -0.7% -1.4% -3.1% -0.5% -1.0% 6.6% Clothing -1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 2.0% 1.5% Sporting goods 0.1% -0.3% -0.7% -1.0% 0.0% -0.9% -1.7% General merchandise 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 3.1% Department stores -0.1% 0.9% -0.5% -0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% Miscellaneous 1.4% 1.6% -1.8% -1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4.9% Non-store retailers -1.1% 1.8% -0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 1.2% 8.0% Eating, drinking 0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 0.4% -0.2% -0.1% 3.0% Adjusted Sales Retail & food service $474.8 $475.8 $474.5 $474.8 $474.5 $473.0 n/a Ex-autos $378.0 $377.4 $376.0 $376.8 $377.6 $376.6 n/a USA: vendite al dettaglio +3,2% y/y USA: produzione industriale penalizzata nel mese di agosto dall uragano Harvey La produzione industriale ad agosto è crollata dello 0,9% m/m vs estimate +0,1% m/m, dopo il +0,4% m/m di luglio, per un dato su base annua passato da +2,4% a +1,5%, sui minimi da marzo L uragano Harvey ha sottratto alla produzione industriale lo 0,75% in termini di crescita. A livello di gruppi industriali, a contenere maggiormente le perdite è stato il manufacturing (-0,3% m/m). Il mining ha perso lo 0,8% m/m e le utilities il 5,5% m/m. Su base annua il mining cresce al ritmo del 9,7%, il manufacturing dell 1,5% mentre le utilities cadono del 7,8%. La capacità d utilizzo degli impianti si è attestata al 76,1%, in ripiegamento di otto decimali rispetto al mese precedente, aggiornando i livelli minimi degli ultimi cinque mesi. Le stime medie del mercato erano per un dato pari al 76,7%. La capacità d utilizzo degli impianti è superiore alla soglia dell 80% nei seguenti sotto-comparti: computers (86,0 punti) e mining (83,9%). La più bassa riguarda invece i semiconductors (67,5 punti). Aug. July June May April March Aug. Weight YOY% Industrial production 100.0% -0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 1.5% Prev. estimates n/a n/a 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% n/a Ex high-tech 97.68% -0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.5% Ex vehicles 94.23% -1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 1.9% Ex tech & vehicles 91.91% -1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 1.8% Industry Groups Manufacturing SIC 76.46% -0.3% 0.0% 0.2% -0.5% 1.2% -0.7% 1.5% Motor vehicle, parts 5.77% 2.2% -4.2% -0.7% -2.4% 4.2% -3.6% -3.6% ex. motor veh/parts 67.32% -0.5% 0.4% 0.2% -0.3% 1.0% -0.4% 1.9% Machinery 5.66% -1.4% -0.2% -0.4% -0.1% 4.8% 0.6% 4.6% Computer, electronics 5.18% 0.8% -0.3% -0.4% -1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 2.9% Utilities 10.64% -5.5% 1.5% -1.0% 2.7% 0.1% 8.2% -7.8% Electric 9.42% -5.9% 2.1% -0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 6.9% -8.1% Natural Gas 1.21% -2.1% -3.1% -3.9% 18.8% -7.4% 18.5% -5.9% Mining 12.91% -0.8% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% -0.4% 9.7% Market Groups Final Products n/a -0.5% 0.1% -0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.8% Consumer goods 28.22% -0.7% 0.3% -0.3% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% -0.3% 9

8 Home electronics 15.00% 0.9% -0.2% -2.0% -0.7% 2.3% 1.0% 1.3% Business equipment 10.23% -0.4% -0.5% -0.4% -1.1% 3.1% 0.4% 1.9% Info processing 2.22% 0.4% -0.2% 0.3% -1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 2.6% Defense and space 2.30% 1.6% 0.2% 0.9% -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% 1.2% Construction supply 4.98% -0.6% 0.0% -0.3% -0.7% 0.8% -1.3% 2.9% Business supplies 9.30% -1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% -0.4% Materials 44.67% -1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.4% Energy 17.23% -1.9% 1.6% 0.8% 1.1% 0.0% 1.5% 3.1% USA: produzione industriale +1,5% y/y USA: capacità utilizzo impianti pari al 76,1% USA: scorte societarie in crescita per il terzo mese di fila Le scorte societarie per il terzo mese di fila sono cresciute, questa volta a luglio dello 0,2% m/m, in linea con le attese, dopo il +0,5% m/m di giugno, per un +3,0% su base annua, in rialzo di due decimali rispetto alla rilevazione precedente. Trattasi di un dato a dir poco importante per capire se l attività di ricostituzione delle scorte da parte dei manager d azienda sia partita o meno. Le vendite sono cresciute anch esse dello 0,2% m/m per un +4,9% y/y. Il rapporto scorte/fatturato per il secondo mese di fila si è attestato a quota 1,38. July June May April March Feb. July YOY Total Inventories 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% -0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 3.0% 3-mo. annual $chg $76.9 $44.4 $21.0 $17.8 $56.6 $74.6 n/a Manufacturers 0.2% 0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 2.4% Retailers -0.1% 0.6% 0.6% -0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 3.4% Ex-autos -0.2% 0.5% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 1.4% Autos and parts 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% -0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 7.2% General merch. -0.6% 1.3% -0.8% -0.6% 0.0% -0.3% -1.8% Wholesalers 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% -0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 3.3% Total Sales 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.3% 4.9% Manufacturers 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% -0.2% 0.3% 4.9% Retailers 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% -0.2% 3.6% Wholesalers -0.1% 0.6% -0.1% -0.3% -0.2% 0.7% 5.9% Inventory/ Sales n/a Manufacturers n/a Retailers n/a Wholesalers n/a USA: scorte societarie +3,0% y/y 10

9 USA: fiducia U. of La fiducia dei consumatori, rilevata dall Università del Michigan, nel mese di settembre, secondo Michigan in calo a la stima preliminare, si è mossa verso il basso, passando da 96,8 a 95,3 punti vs estimate 95,0 punti. settembre (stima Il dato legato alla situazione presente è migliorato da 110,9 a 113,9 punti vs estimate 108,0 punti preliminare) mentre le aspettative sono peggiorate da 87,7 a 83,94 punti vs estimate 83,0 punti. Le stime sull inflazione a 1 anno si sono mosse verso l alto di un decimale collocandosi al 2,7% così come quelle a 5-10 anni attestatesi al 2,6%. Sept. Aug. July June May April March Consumer Sentiment Current Econ Conditions Consumer Expectations Median 12M Inflation 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% Median 5-10Yr Inflation 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% USA: fiducia U. of Michigan a 95,3 punti 11

10 EURO-ZONE GDP MEMBER-STATES FISCAL BALANCE/GDP% MEMBER-STATES INDUSTRIAL-PROD. y/y% GDP at Current (Bln ) 10,926 Germany 0.8% Germany 3.9% GDP at current $ (Bln $) 13,054 France -3.4% France 3.6% GDP at constant (Bln ) 10,192 Italy -2.4% Italy 4.4% GDP at constant $ (Bln $) 12,177 Spain -4.5% Spain 1.9% GDP q/q% 0.6% Netherlands 0.4% Netherlands 4.1% GDP y/y% 2.3% Belgium -2.6% Belgium 4.0% Household Consumption q/q% 0.5% Austria -1.6% Austria 4.2% Household Consumption y/y% 1.8% Portugal -2.0% Portugal 5.2% Domestic Demand q/q% 1.6% Ireland -0.6% Greece 1.9% Domestic Demand y/y% 2.0% Greece 0.7% Ireland -9.2% Fixed Investment q/q% 0.9% MEMBER-STATES GOVT-DEBT/GDP% MEMBER-STATES RETAIL SALES y/y% Fixed Investment y/y% 2.0% Germany 66.9% Germany 3.0% Government Spending q/q% 0.5% France 98.7% France 5.3% Government Spending y/y% 1.2% Italy 134.7% Italy 0.8% Exports q/q% 1.1% Spain 100.4% Spain 0.5% Exports y/y% 4.4% Netherlands 59.6% Netherlands 3.6% Imports q/q% 0.9% Belgium 107.7% Belgium -1.0% Imports y/y% 3.9% Austria 82.6% Austria 1.3% MEMBER-STATES GDP Portugal 130.5% Portugal 3.9% Germany Nominal-GDP (Bln ) 3,189 Ireland 74.3% Greece 3.9% Germany GDP q/q% 0.6% Greece 176.2% Ireland 7.1% Germany GDP y/y% 2.1% PRICES LABOR MARKET France Nominal-GDP (Bln ) 2,249 CPI m/m% 0.3% Unemployment Rate % 9.1% France GDP q/q% 0.5% CPI y/y% 1.5% Labour Costs q/q% 10.6% France GDP y/y% 1.7% CPI-Core y/y% 1.2% Labour Costs y/y% 1.8% Italy Nominal-GDP (Bln ) 1,684 CPI-Estimated y/y% 1.5% MEMBER-STATES UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Italy GDP q/q% 0.4% PPI m/m% 0.0% Germany 3.7% Italy GDP y/y% 1.5% PPI y/y% 2.0% France 9.8% Spain Nominal-GDP (Bln ) 1,134 MEMBER-STATES CPI Y/Y% Italy 11.3% Spain q/q% 0.9% Germany 1.8% Spain 17.1% Spain y/y% 3.1% France 1.0% Netherlands 4.8% Netherlands Nominal-GDP (Bln ) 717 Italy 1.4% Belgium 7.6% Netherlands q/q% 1.5% Spain 2.0% Austria 5.4% Netherlands y/y% 3.8% Netherlands 1.5% Portugal 9.1% Belgium Nominal-GDP (Bln ) 429 Belgium 1.8% Greece 21.2% Belgium q/q% 0.4% Austria 2.0% Ireland 6.3% Belgium y/y% 1.5% Portugal 1.0% CONFIDENCE Austria Nominal-GDP (Bln ) 357 Greece 0.9% Economic Confidence Austria q/q% 0.9% Ireland -0.2% ZEW-expectations Austria y/y% 2.9% INDUSTRIAL IFO (Business Confidence) Portugal Nominal-GDP (Bln ) 188 Industrial Production m/m% 0.1% CURRENT ACCOUNT & TRADE BALANCE Portugal q/q% 0.3% Industrial Production y/y% 3.2% Trade Balance Monthly (Bln ) Portugal y/y% 2.9% Capacity Utilization % 83.2% EuroZone Curr Accnt Monthly (Bln Ireland Nominal-GDP (Bln ) - Capital Goods Prod. m/m% 0.8% Current-Account/GDP% (IMF) % Ireland q/q% 1.4% Capital Goods Prod. y/y% 4.3% MONEY SUPPLY & CREDITS Ireland y/y% 5.8% Intermediate Goods Prod. m/m% 0.5% M1 y/y 9.1% Greece Nominal-GDP (Bln ) - Intermediate Goods Prod. y/y% 4.8% M2 y/y 4.9% Greece q/q% 0.5% Construction Output q/q% -0.5% M3 y/y 4.5% Greece y/y% 0.8% Construction Output y/y% 3.4% Private Sector Loans (Bln eur) 10,735,229 GOVERNMENT DEFICIT & DEBT PMI-Manufacturing Private Sector Loans y/y 2.2% Fiscal-Balance yearly (Bln ) -166 RETAIL SALES & SERVICES ECB Fiscal-Balance/GDP % -1.50% Retail Sales m/m% -0.3% ECB Main Refinancing Rate % 0.00% Fiscal-Balance/GDP % (IMF) % Retail Sales y/y% 2.6% ECB Deposit Facility Rate % -0.40% Government-Debt (Bln ) 9,588 EU 27 New Car Reg. last-m (K) 865 ECB Total Assets (Bln ) 4,300 Government-Debt/GDP % 89.20% EU 27 New Car Registration y/y% 5.6% ECB Excess Liquidity (Bln ) 1,766.3 Government-Debt/GDP % (IMF) % Euro-Zone New Car Reg. y/y% 6.8% MROs (Bln ) 5,505.5 PMI-Services SMP (Bln ) 91.2 EURO: immatricolazioni di nuove auto in accelerazione nel mese di agosto MACRO INDICATORS Le immatricolazioni di nuove auto nel mese di agosto in Europa (EU+EFTA) sono state pari a 903,1 mila unità, in rialzo del 5,5% y/y, nell UE-27 si sono attestate a 865,0 mila unità, in crescita del 5,6% y/y dopo il +2,7% y/y di luglio, nell Eurozona sono state pari invece a 662,0 mila unità, in progresso del 6,9% y/y. Tra i Paesi più rappresentativi il bilancio è positivo per l Italia (+15,8% y/y), la Spagna (+13,0% y/y), la Francia (+9,4% y/y) e la Germania (+3,5% y/y). Il dato continua a muoversi in territorio negativo per il Regno Unito (-6,4% y/y). Nel mese di agosto la casa automobilistica che ha registrato il più alto ritmo di crescita delle immatricolazioni di nuove auto è la PSA Group (+79,2% y/y). Le case automobilistiche che detengono le quote di mercato più importanti sono Volkswagen Group (25,4%, in calo di sette decimali rispetto a un anno fa), PSA Group (15,2%, in rialzo di 6,3 punti percentuali rispetto a un anno fa) e Renault Group (10,1%, in rialzo di sette 12

11 decimali rispetto a un anno fa). =============================================================== Aug. Aug. Aug. YTD YTD YTD YOY% YOY% Total Europe* 903, , % 10,559,543 10,111, % EU** 865, , % 10,232,658 9,788, % Eurozone 662, , % 7,486,881 7,107, % Austria 26,058 23, % 240, , % Belgium 35,517 38, % 394, , % Bulgaria 2,344 2, % 19,556 16, % Croatia 2,405 2, % 38,474 31, % Cyprus % 9,347 8, % Czech Republic 21,192 21, % 185, , % Denmark 15,301 17, % 154, , % Estonia 2,049 1, % 17,399 15, % Finland 9,669 9, % 82,972 83, % France 107,449 98, % 1,390,234 1,333, % Germany 253, , % 2,323,785 2,257, % Greece 5,134 4, % 63,911 58, % Hungary 8,912 7, % 73,053 61, % Ireland 5,746 7, % 124, , % Italy 83,363 72, % 1,366,389 1,252, % Latvia 1,469 1, % 11,491 11, % Lithuania 2,087 1, % 16,674 13, % Luxembourg 3,428 3, % 36,903 35, % Netherlands 29,584 26, % 288, , % Poland 34,505 28, % 318, , % Portugal 11,937 10, % 156, , % Romania 12,001 12, % 68,344 58, % Slovakia 7,265 6, % 64,158 57, % Slovenia 4,492 3, % 48,834 43, % Spain 72,410 64, % 849, , % Sweden 29,915 27, % 248, , % United Kingdom 76,433 81, % 1,640,241 1,680, % EFTA 38,096 36, % 326, , % Iceland 1,521 1, % 17,048 14, % Norway 13,415 13, % 102, , % Switzerland 23,160 21, % 206, , % EURO: immatricolazioni nuove auto +5,6% y/y EURO: PSA Group +79,2% y/y immatricolazioni nuove auto ================ Aug. Aug. Aug. YTD YTD YTD ================ YOY% YOY% VW GROUP 229, , % 2,500,485 2,436, % Volkswagen 102, , % 1,144,464 1,152, % Audi 49,650 47, % 559, , % Skoda 48,018 41, % 471, , % Seat 25,049 22, % 270, , % Porsche 3,964 4, % 50,857 47, % Others % 3,453 2, % PSA GROUP 136,906 76, % 1,102,833 1,016, % Opel/Vauxhall 54,327 n/a n/a 54,327 n/a n/a Peugeot 49,632 44, % 619, , % Citroen 30,553 28, % 398, , % DS 2,394 2, % 31,082 47, % FORD 52,742 54, % 709, , % 13

12 JAG. LAND ROVER 7,701 8, % 146, , % Land Rover 5,514 5, % 99, , % Jaguar 2,187 3, % 46,771 41, % RENAULT GROUP 90,799 80, % 1,087,527 1,011, % Renault 58,115 52, % 763, , % Dacia 32,273 27, % 321, , % Lada % 3,351 2, % FCA GROUP 52,662 47, % 741, , % Fiat 38,714 35, % 563, , % Jeep 5,977 6, % 68,147 69, % Lancia/Chrysler 2,835 2, % 44,564 47, % Alfa Romeo 4,686 3, % 57,900 41, % Others % 7,047 4, % TOYOTA GROUP 44,742 39, % 493, , % Toyota 42,256 37, % 464, , % Lexus 2,486 2, % 28,550 28, % DAIMLER 63,294 57, % 662, , % Mercedes 57,987 53, % 597, , % Smart 5,307 4, % 65,345 69, % BMW GROUP 58,787 57, % 676, , % BMW 48,571 46, % 540, , % Mini 10,216 10, % 135, , % NISSAN 30,113 25, % 387, , % HYUNDAI 31,350 31, % 345, , % MAZDA 15,951 15, % 155, , % HONDA 7,566 8, % 94, , % KIA 27,576 26, % 317, , % SUZUKI 16,261 13, % 163, , % MITSUBISHI 8,001 6, % 79,586 79, % VOLVO 14,393 11, % 197, , % EURO: VW, Psa Group e Renault si contendono le prime posizioni in termini di market share EURO: la produzione industriale ritorna a crescere nel mese di luglio Aug. Aug. YOY YTD YTD YTD Change Change Total Europe 100.0% 100.0% n/a 100.0% 100.0% n/a VW Group 25.4% 26.1% -0.7% 23.7% 24.1% -0.4% PSA Group 15.2% 8.9% 6.3% 10.4% 10.0% 0.4% Renault Group 10.1% 9.4% 0.7% 10.3% 10.0% 0.3% Ford 5.8% 6.4% -0.6% 6.7% 6.9% -0.2% BMW Group 6.5% 6.7% -0.2% 6.4% 6.6% -0.2% FCA Group 5.8% 5.6% 0.2% 7.0% 6.7% 0.3% Daimler 7.0% 6.8% 0.2% 6.3% 6.1% 0.2% Toyota Group 5.0% 4.6% 0.4% 4.7% 4.2% 0.5% Nissan 3.3% 3.0% 0.3% 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% Hyundai 3.5% 3.6% -0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% Kia 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% Volvo car corporation 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% Mazda 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.5% 1.6% -0.1% Suzuki 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.2% Jaguar/Land Rover 0.9% 1.0% -0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% Mitsubishi 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% Honda 0.8% 1.0% -0.2% 0.9% 1.1% -0.2% La produzione industriale nel mese di luglio ha evidenziato un ritmo di crescita dello 0,1% m/m, in linea con quanto stimato in media dal mercato, dopo il -0,6% m/m accusato nel mese precedente. Su base annua il dato è passato da +2,8% a +3,2% vs estimate +3,3% y/y. Nell'ultimo mese a segnare il passo sono state le voci "energy" (-1,2% m/m) e "non durable consumer" (-0,4% m/m). Per quest'ultima anche il dato su base annua è negativo (-0,5% y/y). Rispetto a un anno fa il miglior ritmo di crescita è rappresentato dalla voce "durable consumer" (+5,7% y/y). All'interno dell'ue-19 due Paesi hanno una produzione industriale negativa: Malta (-1,7% y/y) e Irlanda (-9,2% y/y). Il miglior risultato è legato invece alla Slovacchia (+9,2% y/y). La produzione industriale in Germania è caduta dello 0,1% m/m dopo il -1,1% m/m di giugno per un +3,9% y/y (ex +2,4% y/y). In Francia l output è salito dello 0,6% m/m dopo il -1,2% m/m di giugno per un +3,6% y/y (ex +2,5% y/y). In Italia per il terzo mese di fila la produzione industriale si è mossa in territorio positivo (+0,1% m/m) per un +4,4% y/y (ex +5,2% y/y). In Spagna invece per la seconda volta consecutiva è stata registrata una battuta d arresto su base mensile (-0,4%) per un +1,9% y/y (ex +2,9% y/y). July June May April March Feb MOM% Eurozone Total 0.1% -0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% -0.2% 3-mo. change 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Intermediate 14

13 goods 0.5% -0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 1.2% Energy -1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 3.5% -2.9% -5.7% Capital goods 0.8% -1.9% 2.3% -1.1% 0.9% 1.1% Durable consumer 0.7% -1.5% 1.9% -0.1% 2.2% 0.5% Non-durable consumer -0.4% -0.4% 1.4% -0.1% 1.8% -1.2% YOY% Eurozone Total 3.2% 2.8% 4.1% 1.2% 2.1% 1.4% Intermediate goods 4.8% 4.2% 4.0% 3.1% 3.8% 2.1% Energy 1.2% 4.7% 1.6% -0.9% -4.8% 2.2% Capital goods 4.3% 1.5% 5.5% 0.4% 3.6% 1.6% Durable consumer 5.7% 3.9% 7.2% 3.6% 5.2% 1.7% Non-durable consumer -0.5% 1.0% 2.9% 0.3% 1.7% -2.0% EURO: produzione industriale +3,2% y/y July June May April March Feb MOM% Eurozone 0.1% -0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% -0.2% EU28-0.3% -0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.5% -0.1% Belgium n/a 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% -1.6% 3.3% Bulgaria 0.2% -1.8% 2.5% -0.8% 1.0% 3.8% Czech Republic -9.8% -3.3% 2.9% 1.0% -0.3% 0.4% Denmark -1.6% -2.3% 1.9% -2.4% 2.3% 1.6% Germany -0.1% -1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% Estonia -3.1% -0.2% -0.7% 0.5% 2.2% 1.7% Ireland 1.8% -7.4% 2.7% 8.9% 0.6% -12.5% Greece -0.4% -0.3% 0.5% -3.1% -1.1% -0.5% Spain -0.4% -0.3% 1.7% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% France 0.6% -1.2% 1.9% -0.7% 2.4% -1.7% Croatia -1.2% 0.8% 2.3% -2.2% 0.7% -0.7% Italy 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% -0.4% 0.5% 1.1% Cyprus n/a 0.0% 0.0% -2.7% 1.2% 0.7% Latvia 0.1% -0.4% 2.0% -0.3% 0.9% 3.1% Lithuania -0.9% 0.5% 3.8% 0.3% -3.9% 0.8% Luxembourg n/a 2.2% -1.0% 0.2% 2.6% 5.5% Hungary -4.1% -1.3% 2.0% -0.8% 0.6% 2.9% Malta -3.3% -1.4% -0.2% 0.9% -1.9% 1.3% Netherlands -0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% -3.2% 0.1% Austria n/a -0.1% -0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 2.5% Poland -1.4% 0.5% 1.2% -1.1% 1.9% 0.8% Portugal 1.9% -0.2% 5.1% -4.7% 3.3% -1.9% Romania -1.5% -1.6% 3.3% 0.6% 2.7% 1.3% Slovenia 0.5% -0.7% 1.5% -0.7% 1.2% 3.5% Slovakia -3.3% -0.7% 3.6% -5.5% 3.6% -1.2% Finland 0.5% -0.7% 2.1% 0.1% 1.1% -0.5% Sweden -0.7% 0.8% 2.2% -1.2% 0.5% 0.3% United Kingdom 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% -0.6% -0.8% Norway 0.8% 0.4% -0.6% 0.6% 0.0% -0.5% YOY% Eurozone 3.2% 2.8% 4.1% 1.2% 2.1% 1.4% EU28 3.1% 3.1% 4.0% 1.1% 2.8% 2.0% Belgium n/a 4.0% 4.3% 1.8% 2.3% 3.6% Bulgaria 4.2% 3.3% 9.5% 5.1% 6.5% 4.7% Czech Republic 3.3% 3.0% 10.9% 6.7% 4.0% 6.1% Denmark -3.1% 2.1% 4.9% 1.5% 6.2% 3.3% Germany 3.9% 2.4% 4.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% Estonia 4.7% 11.9% 12.0% 10.2% 14.5% 8.8% Ireland -9.2% -7.9% 6.7% -1.2% 1.7% -10.2% Greece 1.9% 2.3% 6.6% 1.0% 10.4% 11.4% Spain 1.9% 2.9% 3.8% -0.2% 0.5% 2.6% 15

14 France 3.6% 2.5% 3.2% -0.1% 2.6% -0.8% Croatia 2.5% 4.3% 3.6% -0.3% 0.3% 2.9% Italy 4.4% 5.2% 2.7% 1.0% 2.8% 2.0% Cyprus n/a 1.8% 4.5% 2.5% 9.6% 8.4% Latvia 8.9% 7.8% 10.4% 9.6% 9.9% 10.8% Lithuania 5.0% 8.2% 7.3% 4.5% 4.4% 6.5% Luxembourg n/a 0.3% -1.5% -1.3% -1.0% -6.1% Hungary 0.2% 6.6% 6.2% 2.8% 10.1% 7.3% Malta -1.7% 3.0% 4.5% 4.9% 4.6% 6.8% Netherlands 4.1% 3.8% 2.4% -1.6% -3.3% 5.6% Austria n/a 4.2% 3.4% 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% Poland 6.4% 6.9% 6.8% 4.1% 8.7% 4.8% Portugal 5.2% 3.9% 5.8% -2.8% 5.5% 0.1% Romania 7.6% 11.8% 14.7% 1.3% 10.8% 5.9% Slovenia 6.5% 6.9% 8.8% 7.6% 9.7% 7.9% Slovakia 9.2% 3.1% 5.1% -3.2% 13.1% 2.5% Finland 2.6% 2.6% 5.7% 1.6% 3.1% -0.6% Sweden 6.6% 9.2% 7.5% 0.9% 3.6% 3.7% United Kingdom 0.2% 0.3% -0.8% -0.9% 1.0% 3.6% Norway 0.5% 5.5% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% EURO: capacità utilizzo impianti in rialzo La capacità d utilizzo degli impianti si è attestata nel Q3 17 a 83,2 punti percentuali, sui massimi dal Q2 08, in rialzo di sei decimali rispetto al trimestre precedente. Rispetto a un anno fa (81,6 punti percentuali) la situazione è migliorata. Il dato si muove sopra quota 80,0 punti da quindici trimestri di fila. La capacità d utilizzo degli impianti in Germania è pari a 86,7 punti percentuali, sui massimi dal Q2 11, in rialzo di sette decimali rispetto al trimestre precedente. In Francia il valore è pari a 84,4 punti percentuali, in rialzo di un decimale rispetto al Q2 17. In Italia il dato è passato dal 76,0% al 77,0%, sui massimi dal Q1 16. In Spagna la capacità d utilizzo degli impianti si è attestata al 78,7%, in rialzo di sei decimali rispetto al trimestre precedente. EURO: capacità utilizzo impianti pari all 83,20% EURO: nel Q2 17 costo per ogni unità di lavoro in accelerazione Il costo per ogni unità di lavoro nel Q2 17 ha evidenziato un ritmo di crescita pari all 1,8% y/y, in aumento di quattro decimali rispetto al trimestre precedente. Trattasi del ritmo di crescita più robusto dal Q1 15. Solo un Paese dell Ue-19 si muove in territorio negativo: Finlandia (-0,3% y/y). Il ritmo di crescita più elevato appartiene invece alla Lituania (+10,4% y/y). In Germania il costo per ogni unità di lavoro cresce al ritmo del 2,3% y/y, in rialzo di un decimale rispetto al Q1 17. In Francia il dato si è mosso verso l alto, passando da +1,1% y/y a +1,4% y/y. In Italia il dato è migliorato di un decimale, da +0,8% y/y a +0,9% y/y così come in Spagna, il cui ritmo di crescita è aumentato di quattro decimali, passando da +0,0% y/y a +0,4% y/y. Il maggior ritmo di crescita del costo per ogni unità di lavoro giustifica in parte il ridimensionamento dei margini di profitto del mondo CORPORATE, lì dove sono stati conseguiti nel Q Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q Whole Economy YOY% Eurozone 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% EU28 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% Belgium 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bulgaria 11.0% 10.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.7% Czech Republic 11.1% 8.3% -0.4% 8.4% 3.4% Denmark 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.4% Germany 2.3% 2.2% 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% Estonia 8.1% 5.3% 5.7% 4.9% 4.9% Ireland 2.2% 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% Greece 1.8% 6.2% -0.4% -0.7% 5.2% Spain 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% France 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% Croatia 4.5% 5.3% 4.7% 4.0% 2.7% Italy 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% -0.4% -1.0% Cyprus 0.4% 0.1% -0.5% 0.6% 0.1% Latvia 8.1% 8.7% 8.0% 7.9% 6.5% 16

15 Lithuania 10.4% 9.9% 10.7% 6.8% 6.7% Luxembourg 4.0% -0.3% 2.4% 1.8% -1.3% Hungary 13.0% 12.0% 6.0% 6.4% 3.7% Malta 1.7% 1.3% -0.5% -0.9% -0.8% Netherlands 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1.2% Austria 2.6% 1.4% -0.5% 1.9% 0.2% Poland 8.3% 2.8% 7.0% 4.7% 3.1% Portugal 2.9% 3.4% 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% Romania 18.6% 17.2% 12.3% 14.7% 13.3% Slovenia 5.2% 2.5% 5.9% 3.5% 1.7% Slovakia 7.3% 3.9% 4.8% 4.5% 1.7% Finland -0.3% -3.0% 1.7% 1.5% -2.2% Sweden 1.7% 2.1% 2.9% 3.6% 3.1% UK 1.9% 1.4% 1.8% 1.5% 2.8% EURO: costo unità lavoro +1,8% y/y EURO: la bilancia comm.le evidenzia a luglio un surplus inferiore rispetto a un anno fa La Bilancia commerciale NSA nel mese di luglio ha evidenziato un surplus di 23,2 Bln contro i +24,8 Bln dello stesso mese del Al dato finale hanno concorso le esportazioni per un ammontare di 177,7 Bln (+6% y/y) e le importazioni per un totale di 154,6 Bln (+8% y/y). Il commercio di beni intraeuropeo, invece, si è attestato a 145,6 Bln (+6% y/y). Su base YTD il surplus della bilancia commerciale NSA ammonta a 130,2 Bln contro i +154,1 Bln dello stesso periodo del 2016, frutto di un export pari a 1.265,1 Bln (+8% y/y) e di un import pari a 1.135,0 Bln (+11% y/y). Nei primi sette mesi del 2017 la Germania ha conseguito un surplus NSA di 144,2 Bln contro i +150,4 Bln dello stesso periodo del 2016, per un export di 743,9 Bln (+6% y/y) e un import di 599,6 Bln (+9% y/y). La Francia ha finora accumulato un disavanzo di 49,5 Bln contro -35,9 Bln dei primi sette mesi dello scorso anno, per un export di 274,8 Bln (+4% y/y) e un import di 324,3 Bln (+8% y/y). Quanto all Italia il surplus cumulato è pari a 25,6 Bln contro i +31,1 Bln dello stesso periodo del 2016, per un export complessivo di 263,3 Bln (+8% y/y) e un import di 237,7 Bln (+11% y/y). La bilancia commerciale è negativa anche per la Spagna. Il disavanzo è pari a 14,1 Bln contro i -8,8 Bln del 2016, per un export di 166,5 Bln (+9% y/y) e un import di 180,6 Bln (+12% y/y). July June May April March Feb Seasonally Adjusted Eurozone Bal. sa Exports Imports Intra dispatches Seasonally Adjusted EU28 trade balance Exports Imports Intra dispatches Jan- Jan- July July July July YoY YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted Eurozone Bal. nsa n/a n/a Exports % % Imports % % Intra EA dispatches % % Not Seasonally Adjusted EU28 trade balance n/a n/a Exports % % Imports % % Intra EU dispatches % % 17

16 EURO: il surplus della bilancia comm.le si attesta a 23,2 Bln July July July July July July YTD 2017 YTD YTD YTD YTD YoY YTD YoY -----Balance----- Exports ---Imports---- Belgium % % Bulgaria % % Czech Republic % % Denmark % % Germany % % Estonia % % Ireland % % Greece % % Spain % % France % % Croatia % % Italy % % Cyprus % 4.2 3% Latvia % % Lithuania % % Luxembourg % % Hungary % % Malta % % Netherlands % % Austria % % Poland % % Portugal % % Romania % % Slovenia % % Slovakia % % Finland % % Sweden % % United Kingdom % % 18

17 UNITED KINGDOM GDP PRICES LABOR MARKET GDP at current Gbp (Bln Gbp) 1,978 CPI m/m% 0.6% Unemployment Rate % 4.30% GDP at current Gbp (Bln $) 2,691 CPI y/y% 2.9% Total Unemployed ILO (K) 1,455 q/q% 0.8% CPI-core m/m% 0.6% Total Claimant Counts (K) 806 y/y% 3.6% CPI-core y/y% 2.7% New Claimant Counts (K) month -3 GDP at constant Gbp (Bln Gbp) 1,882 CPI-food m/m % 0.0% UK Claimant Counts Rate % 2.30% GDP at current Gbp (Bln $) 2,561 CPI-food y/y % 2.1% Payrolls (K) quarterly 181 q/q% 0.3% CPI-housing m/m % 0.1% Total Payrolls (K) 32,136 y/y% 1.7% CPI-housing y/y % 2.2% Average Weekly Earnings cum-b 1.4% GDP Deflator q/q% 0.6% RPI (Retail Price Index) m/m% 0.7% Average Weekly Earnings cum-b 2.1% GDP Deflator y/y% 1.9% RPI (Retail Price Index) y/y% 3.9% Average Weekly Earnings ex-bo 2.0% Consumer-spending q/q% 0.1% PPI m/m% 0.4% Average Weekly Earnings ex-bo 2.1% Consumer-spending y/y% 2.0% PPI y/y% 3.4% HOUSING MARKET Business-spending q/q% 0.7% PPI Producting Factors m/m% -2.0% Mortgage Approvals (K) 68.7 Business-spending y/y% 2.5% PPI Producting Factors y/y% 7.6% Net Lending on Dwelling (Bln Gb 360.1% Government-spending q/q% 0.6% INDUSTRIAL Avg Housing Prices (Nationwide 210,495 Government-spending y/y% 1.2% Industrial Production m/m% 0.2% Housing Prices (Nationwide) m/m -0.1% Exports q/q% 0.7% Industrial Production y/y% 0.4% Housing Prices (Nationwide) y/y 2.1% Exports y/y% 2.4% Manufacturing Production m/m% 0.5% Housing Prices (RightMove) m/m -1.2% Imports q/q% 0.7% Manufacturing Production y/y% 1.9% Housing Prices (RightMove) y/y% 1.1% Imports y/y% 3.7% Mining m/m% -1.2% Housing Prices (Halifax/Hbos) m 1.1% Nominal GDP Pro-Capita (Gbp) 20,338 Mining y/y% -6.5% Housing Prices (Halifax/Hbos) y/ 2.6% Real GDP Pro-Capita (Gbp) 17,224 Utilities & Gas m/m% 1.9% Construction-output m/m% -0.9% GOVERNMENT DEFICIT & DEBT Utilities & Gas y/y% 2.1% Construction-output y/y% -0.4% Fiscal-Balance ex-fin-int. monthly (Bln Gbp 0.18 Oil & Gas m/m% -1.4% Construction-PMI Fiscal-Balance ex-fin-int. yearly (Bln Gbp) Oil & Gas y/y% -7.5% CONFIDENCE Fiscal-Balance/GDP % ex-fin-intervention -2.4% Durable Goods m/m% -1.5% Leading Indicators Fiscal-Balance cum-fin-int. monthly (Bln G 0.76 Durable Goods y/y% 1.9% Leading Indicators m/m% -0.1% Fiscal-Balance cum-fin-int. yearly (Bln Gbp Non-Durable Goods m/m% -0.9% Leading Indicators y/y% -0.2% Fiscal-Balance/GDP % cum-fin-int. -2.0% Non-Durable Goods y/y% 0.0% Coincident Index m/m% 0.2% Fiscal-Balance/GDP % (IMF) % Investment Goods m/m% 2.1% Coincident Index y/y% 0.7% Government-Debt ex-fin-int. (Bln Gbp) 1,758.3 Investment Goods y/y% 4.3% GGFK UK Consumer Conf Government-Debt/GDP % ex-fin-int. 87.5% Intermediate Goods m/m% 0.2% MONEY SUPPLY & CREDITS Government-Debt cum-fin-int. (Bln Gbp) 2,058.0 Intermediate Goods y/y% 1.3% Notes & Coins Avg Amt Outstan Government-Debt/GDP % cum-fin-int % Industrial Capacity Utilization % 82.5% Money Supply Notes & Coins y/y 4.0% Government-Debt/GDP % (IMF) % PMI Manufacturing M0 y/y% 7.5% CURRENT ACCOUNT & TRADE BALANCE RETAIL SALES & SERVICES Money Supply M4 (Bln Gbp) 2,312 Current-Account last quarter (Bln Gbp) Retail Sales in volume m/m% sa 0.5% M4 m/m% 0.5% Current-Account/GDP% (IMF) % Retail Sales in volume y/y% sa 1.5% M4 y/y% 4.4% Trade Balance yearly (Bln Gbp) Retail Sales Implied Deflator y/y% 2.7% Net Lending on Dwel. (Bln Gbp) 3.60 Trade Balance last month (Bln Gbp) Retail Sales in value m/m% sa (e 1.1% Consumer Credit (Bln Gbp) mon 1.18 Visible Trade Balance last month (Bln Gbp) Retail Sales in value y/y% sa (ex 4.4% Total Net Lending Bln Gbp mont 4.78 Visible Trade Balance non-eu last month (B New Car Registrations m/m% -52.8% BANK OF ENGLAND Exports last month (Bln Gbp) New Car Registrations y/y% -6.4% UK Base rate 0.3% Imports last month (Bln Gbp) PMI Services Asset Purchase Target (Bln Gbp 435 BOE Tot Assets (Bln Gbp) 405 UK: prezzi al consumo in accelerazione e sui massimi da aprile 2012 MACRO INDICATORS Cresce l inflazione nel Regno Unito ad agosto: i prezzi al consumo sono saliti dello 0,6% m/m vs estimate +0,5% m/m, dopo il -0,1% m/m del mese precedente. Su base annua l inflazione è salita del 2,9% rispetto al +2,6% y/y del mese precedente. Le stime medie del mercato erano per un +2,8% y/y. Il dato, superiore al +2% y/y per il settimo mese di fila, è il migliore da aprile Il CPI core, ovvero l indice dei prezzi al consumo nella versione che esclude i settori volatili come quello alimentare ed energetico, mostra una quasi analoga accelerazione, registrando un incremento del 2,7% y/y dopo il +2,4% y/y precedente e contro un atteso +2,5% y/y. Il rialzo più sostenuto su base mensile ha interessato le voci clothing & footwear (+2,4% m/m) e household (+1,8% m/m), mentre nessuna voce ha registrato una battuta d arresto. Su base annua le voci più inflazionate sono state quelle di nuovo di clothing & footwear (+4,6%) e alcohol & tobacco (+4,5%). Aug. July June May April March Yearly % Change CPI 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% Core CPI* 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8% CPIY** 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.1% CPI-CT*** 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.1% CPIH 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% OOH**** 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% RPI 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1% RPIX 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.4% RPI Ex. Housing 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 3.4% RPI Ex. Seasonal Food 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% RPI Ex. all 19

18 Food 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.4% Monthly % Change CPI 0.6% -0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% Core CPI* 0.6% -0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% CPIH 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% OOH**** 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% RPI 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% RPIX 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% RPI Ex. Housing 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% RPI Ex. Seasonal Food 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% RPI Ex. all Food 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% Aug. July June May April Monthly % Change CPI Overall 0.6% -0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% Food & Non Alcohol 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Alcohol & Tobacco 0.1% 0.3% -0.2% 0.8% 0.4% Clothing & Footwear 2.4% -3.0% -1.0% 0.5% 1.1% Housing 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% Household 1.8% -1.2% 0.4% 1.2% -1.0% Health 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% Transport 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% -0.7% 1.6% Communication 1.7% -0.4% 0.7% 0.6% -0.9% Recreation 0.1% -0.2% -0.2% 0.9% 0.2% Education 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Restaurants & Hotels 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% Miscellaneous 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% Yearly % Change CPI Overall 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% Food & Non Alcohol 2.1% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.5% Alcohol & Tobacco 4.5% 5.1% 5.1% 4.9% 4.4% Clothing & Footwear 4.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% Housing 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 1.6% Household 4.2% 3.8% 3.2% 2.4% 1.7% Health 2.6% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% Transport 3.2% 3.1% 3.7% 4.7% 6.4% Communication 2.2% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% Recreation 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% 2.3% 1.0% Education 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Restaurants & Hotels 3.5% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% Miscellaneous 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% UK: prezzi al consumo +2,9% y/y UK: prezzi alla produzione in accelerazione e sopra le attese Nel mese di agosto prezzi alla produzione in accelerazione e sopra le attese. Su base mensile il ritmo di crescita è stato pari allo 0,4% a fronte di un atteso +0,1% m/m. Nel mese di luglio il dato era stato pari a +0,1% m/m. Su base annua i prezzi hanno evidenziato per l ottava volta consecutiva una crescita superiore al 3,0%, mettendo a segno un +3,4% rispetto al +3,2% y/y rilevato nel mese precedente e ad un consensus di +3,1% y/y. Trattasi del miglior dato negli ultimi tre mesi. Il PPI core si è mosso verso l alto dello 0,2% m/m vs estimate +0,1% m/m per un ritmo di crescita su base annua del +2,5%, in linea con il dato precedente. Il PPI legato alla sotto-voce petroleum products è cresciuto del 2,3% m/m (ex +0,1% m/m) per un +6,9% y/y (ex +3,8% y/y), a differenza di quello legato alla sotto-voce food, beverages & tobacco, in rialzo dello 0,1% m/m (ex +0,3% m/m) per un +5,1% y/y (ex +5,3% y/y). Aug. July June May April March Output Prices Monthly % changes Factory Prices MoM 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% Core Prices MoM* 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% Food, Beverages 20

19 & Tobacco MoM 0.1% 0.3% -0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 1.1% Petroleum Products MoM 2.3% 0.1% -1.8% -2.0% -0.7% -1.4% Annual % changes Factory Prices YoY 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% Core Prices YoY* 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% Food, Beverages & Tobacco YoY 5.1% 5.3% 4.4% 4.4% 2.6% 2.3% Petroleum Products YoY 6.9% 3.8% 3.9% 9.5% 15.4% 19.3% Input Prices Monthly % changes Raw Material Prices MoM 1.6% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.6% -0.5% Annual % changes Raw Material Prices YoY 7.6% 6.2% 9.9% 12.1% 15.3% 16.8% UK: prezzi alla produzione +3,4% y/y UK: mercato del lavoro in ulteriore miglioramento Il tasso di disoccupazione ILO nel periodo maggio-luglio si è attestato al 4,3%, in calo di tre decimali rispetto al periodo febbraio-aprile, sui minimi da maggio 1975, contro una stima media del mercato pari al 4,4%. Il totale dei disoccupati si è ridotto di 75 mila unità attestandosi a 1,455 milioni di unità, nuovo minimo da settembre Il totale delle persone occupate, con forme contrattuali stabili o precarie che siano, è aumentato di 181 mila unità rispetto alla rilevazione precedente attestandosi a 32,136 milioni di persone, sui massimi di sempre. I sussidi di disoccupazione sono scesi di 2,8 mila unità attestandosi a 806,3 mila persone. Il tasso di occupazione si è attestato al 60,9%, in rialzo di due decimali rispetto alla rilevazione precedente. I salari settimanali medi nel trimestre che comprende il mese di luglio sono cresciuti del 2,1% y/y vs estimate +2,3% y/y, in linea con la rilevazione precedente. Trattasi del ritmo di crescita più contenuto da dicembre 2015 (+2,0% y/y). Esclusi i bonus, il dato è rimasto invariato rispetto al precedente evidenziando un +2,1% y/y vs estimate +2,2% y/y, sui minimi da ottobre Mediamente il maggior incremento settimanale dei salari negli ultimi tre mesi si è registrato nel settore private sector (+2,2% y/y, pari a 503 sterline), quello più contenuto nel settore public sector (+1,5% y/y), il cui salario medio settimanale è pari a 512 sterline. Aug. July June May April Claimant Count Rate 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% Claimant Count Level Monthly Change Jobseeker s Allowance Earnings inc bonuses* n/a 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2.1% Earnings ex bonuses* n/a 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% May-Jul Feb-Apr Nov-Jan Aug-Oct May-Jul ILO Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% Employment ( 000s, 16+) 32,136 31,954 31,846 31,755 31,757 Employment Change ( 000s, 16+) May - Jul Feb-Apr Nov-Jan Aug-Oct May-Jul

20 Total Unemployed 1,455 1,530 1,580 1,612 1,630 Change on Quarter % Rate * 4.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% Breakdown by Duration Up to 6 Months Between 6-12 Months All Over 12 Months % Over 12 Months 26.3% 25.2% 24.9% 25.9% 27.6% All Over 24 Months UK: tasso di disoccupazione ILO al 4,3% UK: totale disoccupati pari a 1,455 milioni di unità UK: salari settimanali medi cum bonus +2,1% y/y UK: salari settimanali medi ex bonus +2,1% y/y UK: la Bank of England non tocca i tassi d interesse e l Asset Purchase Target La Bank of England, nella riunione del comitato di politica monetaria del 14 settembre, con una maggioranza più ampia (7-2) rispetto a quella della decisione di inizio agosto (6-2 con l astensione di Hogg) ha optato per la conferma dei tassi al livello dello 0,25% su cui sono posizionati dall agosto del Nelle ultime tre riunioni (giugno, agosto e settembre) i membri Saunders e McCafferty hanno votato a favore di un incremento dei tassi di un quarto di punto percentuale. Il board della banca 22

21 centrale, inoltre, si è espresso all unanimità sul mantenimento dello stock di bond da acquistare sul mercato al tetto dei 435 miliardi di sterline. Acquisti finanziati con l emissione di riserve della Banca. Unanimità è stata espressa anche nel lasciare a 10 miliardi di sterline il target di acquisti di corporate bond emessi nella valuta nazionale. Nella nota accompagnatoria che ha accompagnato la decisione di politica monetaria, la Bank of England osserva che se l economia britannica proseguirà sul sentiero coerente con la più recente misurazione dell inflazione (+2,9% y/y nel mese di agosto) allora la politica monetaria potrebbe essere resa restrittiva in misura più ampia nel periodo di previsione rispetto alle attuali aspettative di mercato. Una frase questa che sembra voler preparare il terreno per un prossimo rialzo dei tassi, ovviamente graduale e contenuto. La maggioranza dei consiglieri ha valutato difatti che nei prossimi mesi potrebbe essere necessario ridurre lo stimolo monetario se proseguirà l attuale crescita delle pressioni inflazionistiche. UK: tassi pari allo 0,25% UK: Asset Purchase Target di 435 Bln Gbp 23

22 JAPAN MACRO INDICATORS GDP PRICES RETAIL SALES & SERVICES GDP at current Yen (Trl Yen) CPI m/m% -0.2% Wholesale & Retail Sales y/y% 2.7% GDP at current $ (Bln $) 4,879 CPI y/y% 0.4% Retail Sales m/m% 1.1% GDP q/q% 0.7% CPI-ex-fresh food m/m% -0.1% Retail Sales y/y% 1.8% GDP y/y% 1.0% CPI-ex-fresh food y/y% 0.5% Wholesale Sales m/m% -0.6% GDP at constant Yen (Trl Yen) PPI m/m% 0.0% Wholesale Sales y/y% 3.1% GDP at constant $ (Bln $) 4,758 PPI y/y% 2.9% National Store Sales y/y% -1.4% GDP q/q% 0.6% Export Prices m/m% 1.3% Tertiary Industry Index 0.1% GDP q/q%annualized 2.5% Export Prices y/y% 8.6% Overall Household Spend. y/y% -0.2% GDP y/y% 1.4% Import Prices m/m% 0.0% LABOR MARKET GDP Fiscal Year y/y% 1.3% Import Prices y/y% 12.5% Unemployment Rate % 2.8% GDP Deflator y/y% -0.4% PPI-services m/m% 0.3% Job/Applicant Ratio 1.52 Consumer-spending (Trl Yen) PPI-services y/y% 0.6% Population (Mln) q/q% 0.8% PPI-goods m/m% 0.0% Labor Force (Mln) Res. Business-spending (Trl Yen) PPI-goods y/y% 2.9% Employed (Mln) q/q% 1.3% INDUSTRIAL Unemployed (Mln) 1.90 Non-Res. Business-Spending (Trl Yen) Industrial Production m/m% -0.8% Cash Earnings y/y% -0.3% q/q% 0.5% Industrial Production q/q% 1.8% Extraordinary Earnings y/y% 0.1% Private Inventories (Trl Yen) 1.02 Industrial Production y/y% 4.7% Real Cash Earnings y/y % -0.8% Government-spending (Trl Yen) Capacity Utilization % 100.1% CONFIDENCE q/q% 0.4% m/m% -1.8% Tankan Large Manufacturing 17.0 Govt Business-spending (Trl Yen) Industrial Shipments m/m% -0.7% Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlo 15.0 q/q% 6.0% Industrial Shipments y/y% 4.1% Tankan Large non-manufacturing 23.0 Net Exports (Trl Yen) 5.20 Industrial Invetories m/m% -1.2% Tankan Large non-manufacturing O 18.0 Exports (Trl Yen) Industrial Inventories y/y% -2.3% Tankan Large All Industry Capex 0.1 Imports (Trl Yen) Inventories/Shipments Ratio Tankan Small Manufacturing 7.0 Net-Profit from abroad (Trl Yen) Total Machinery Orders (Bln Yen) 2,382 Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlo 6.0 Receipts from abroad (Trl Yen) Core Machinery Orders (Bln Yen) Tankan Small non-manufacturing 7.0 Payments from abroad (Trl Yen) m/m% 8.0% Tankan Small non-manufacturing O 2.0 Gross National Income (Trl Yen) y/y% -7.5% Leading Indicators 61.1 GOVERNMENT DEFICIT & DEBT Japan Auto production (units) 818,253 Consumer Confidence Household 43.7 Fiscal-balance/GDP % (IMF) % y/y% 1.4% Coincident Index 28.6 Govt-Expenditures (Trl yen) 98.2 Domestic Auto Sales (units) 233,810 PMI Confidence 49.0 Govt-Revenues (Trl yen) y/y% 4.7% CONFIDENCE Bond Depdendcy Rate 35.3% Auto Exports Sales (units) 410,676 M1 (Trl yen) JGBs & Borrowing (Quadrillion yen) 1,079.0 y/y% -0.7% M1 y/y% 7.5% Japan Govt Bonds (Trl yen) Toyota World Auto prod (units) 701,694 M2 (Trl yen) Japan Govt Fin Bills (Trl yen) 79.9 y/y% -3.5% M2 y/y% 4.0% Govt-Debt/GDP % 199% Nissan World Auto prod (units) 429,177 M3 (Quadrillion yen) Govt-Debt/GDP % (IMF) % y/y% 6.4% M3 y/y% 3.4% BANK OF JAPAN Machinery Tools m/m% 0.0% Broad Liquidity y/y% 3.7% Base rate % 0.1% Machinery Tools y/y% 36.3% Monetary Base (Trl Yen) HOUSING MARKET Monetary Base y/y% 16.3% Tokyo condos sales price ('000 Yen) 57,940 BOJ Total Assets (Trl yen) Land Prices y/y% 0.4% BOJ Govt Securities (Trl yen) Housing Starts y/y% -2.3% FX reserves (Bln $) 1,268.0 Housing Starts annualized ('000) 974 Constr.-Orders (50 Biggest Construc.) y 14.9% JAPAN : a luglio i nuovi ordini dei macchinari del settore privato ritornano a crescere dopo tre mesi I nuovi ordini dei macchinari del settore privato nel mese di luglio sono ritornati a crescere dopo tre mesi registrando un +8,0% m/m vs estimate +4,1% m/m, dopo il -1,9% m/m di giugno, attestandosi a 853,3 miliardi di yen. Su base annua il dato si è mosso verso il basso passando da - 5,2% a -7,5% vs estimate -7,8% y/y. Trattasi del peggior dato da gennaio 2017 (-8,2% y/y). Si ricorda che il dato core, e cioè al netto di settori come quello delle utilities, è tenuto in grande considerazione dal governo nipponico al fine di monitorare gli investimenti aziendali che costituiscono una quota importante della composizione del PIL. ================ July June May April March Feb. ================ Month-on-Month Percent Change Total orders 4.9% 2.1% -3.1% 2.7% 1.3% -1.3% Private 1.1% 4.4% 1.7% 1.4% -12.4% 13.4% Ex-ships, utils (core) 8.0% -1.9% -3.6% -3.1% 1.4% 1.5% 3-month % change -3.9% -4.7% -2.0% -0.1% -1.4% -0.3% 3-month annualized -14.8% -17.4% -7.7% -0.5% -5.3% -1.4%

23 Manufacturers 2.9% -5.4% 1.0% 2.5% 0.6% 6.0% Non-manufacturers* 4.8% 0.8% -5.1% -5.0% -3.9% 1.8% Public -3.3% 50.1% -22.0% -10.3% 15.0% -35.4% Foreign 9.1% -3.1% -5.2% 17.4% -2.8% -1.1% Agency -0.6% 3.6% -2.0% 0.8% -3.1% 18.9% Year-on-Year Percent Change Total orders 10.2% 4.3% 8.2% 2.0% -11.9% -0.9% Private -2.9% -3.0% -2.6% -2.4% -13.7% -9.6% Ex-ships, utils (core) -7.5% -5.2% 0.6% 2.7% -0.7% 5.6% Manufacturers -1.8% -3.2% 6.3% 9.8% -4.9% 9.5% Non-manufacturers* -12.3% -6.9% -4.0% -2.1% 2.2% 2.7% Public -1.6% 15.8% -19.7% 1.9% -24.1% -5.0% Foreign 30.1% 8.9% 25.4% 5.9% -2.6% 11.3% Agency 8.2% 11.6% 21.1% 10.3% 5.8% 8.3% Yen Levels Total orders 2, , , , , ,207.5 Private , Ex-ships, utils (core) Manufacturers Non-manufacturers* Public Foreign Agency JAPAN: nuovi ordini dei macchinari -7,5% y/y JAPAN: gli aggregati monetari evidenziano ad agosto gli stessi ritmi di crescita di luglio L aggregato monetario M3 nel mese di agosto ha evidenziato un ritmo di crescita del 3,4% y/y, in linea con le stime medie del mercato e il dato precedente. Trattasi del ritmo di crescita più sostenuto da marzo scorso. L aggregato monetario M2 cresce al ritmo del 4,0% y/y, un decimale sotto le stime medie del mercato e in linea con il dato precedente. L aggregato monetario M1 cresce invece al ritmo del 7,5% y/y, in linea con il mese di luglio. Aug. July June May April March Feb. Y/y% M2 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 4.2% 4.1% SAAR 3.6% 4.5% 4.9% 3.4% 0.0% 3.6% 5.3% M3 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 2.0% 3.5% 3.5% SAAR 3.1% 3.8% 4.3% 2.8% 3.3% 3.2% 4.3% M1 7.5% 7.5% 7.7% 7.6% 1.7% 8.7% 9.5% Currency in 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 7.7% 4.4% 4.4% circulation Deposit money 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% 8.1% 4.2% 9.4% 10.3% Quasi money -1.2% -1.3% -1.5% -1.6% 8.3% -1.8% -1.9% CD s -0.2% 0.3% -1.1% -1.7% -1.7% -5.8% -14.7% L 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 1.3% 2.4% 2.3% SAAR 4.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.9% 2.5% 3.1% 4.1% JAPAN: M3 +3,4% y/y 25

24 JAPAN: prezzi alla I prezzi alla produzione ad agosto sono rimasti invariati su base mensile vs estimate +0,1% m/m, produzione fermi ad dopo il +0,3% m/m di luglio. Su base annua il dato per l ottava volta si è mosso in territorio positivo, agosto passando da +2,6% a +2,9%, nuovo massimo da settembre Le stime medie del mercato erano per un +3,0% y/y. A livello di comparti, il ritmo di crescita più elevato del PPI è legato a scrap, waste (+7,1% m/m e +40,2% y/y). Il sotto-comparto più deflazionato è quello information, communication equipment, i cui prezzi alla produzione evidenziano un calo dell 1,5% su base annua. Aug. July June May April March Feb MoM% Producer prices 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Export prices 0.6% 0.1% -0.2% -0.4% -0.4% 0.5% 0.4% Import prices 0.2% -1.0% -0.9% -0.2% -0.1% 0.8% 1.6% YoY% Producer prices 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% 1.1% Export prices 3.2% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.5% 4.4% 4.1% Import prices 6.2% 5.8% 8.0% 10.6% 11.3% 12.6% 11.4% Aug. July June May April March Feb MoM% All commodities 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Manufacturing 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Beverages & Food -0.1% -0.1% 0.2% -0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Textiles 0.1% -0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% Lumber, wood 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% -0.1% 0.5% Pulp, paper 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% -0.1% Chemicals -0.3% -0.6% 0.0% 0.3% -0.6% -0.7% 0.9% Petroleum, coal 0.1% -0.7% -1.0% -2.6% -2.1% 2.3% 0.4% Plastic products 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% Ceramic, stone, clay 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.2% 0.3% -0.2% -0.1% Iron & Steel 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.4% 0.5% 1.0% Nonferrous metals 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.4% 0.0% 1.1% Metal products -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% General machinery -0.3% 0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.6% -0.3% 0.1% Production machinery 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% -1.2% 1.5% 0.2% -0.7% Business oriented -0.5% 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% -0.5% 0.2% -0.6% Electronic components, -0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% devices Electrical machinery -0.1% 0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.5% -0.3% 0.1% Information, -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% 0.0% 0.2% -0.1% -0.1% communication equip. Transportation equip. -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% Other mfg. Industries 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Agriculture -0.6% 0.1% 0.8% -0.1% 0.6% -0.1% 0.7% Minerals 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% 1.0% -0.7% 0.9% 0.6% Utilities -0.2% 3.8% 0.9% 2.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% Scrap, waste 7.1% 6.4% 1.3% -8.1% -2.5% 6.3% 0.2% YoY% All commodities 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% 1.1% Manufacturing 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% Beverages & Food -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.3% -0.6% Textiles 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% -0.3% -0.7% -0.9% Lumber, wood 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% Pulp, paper 0.5% -0.1% -0.5% -0.6% -0.8% -1.0% -1.2% Chemicals 3.0% 3.2% 3.6% 2.9% 2.5% -0.5% 0.5% Petroleum, coal 12.5% 11.7% 10.8% 17.6% 22.9% 30.7% 27.7% Plastic products -0.3% -0.5% -0.9% -1.3% -1.6% -2.5% -2.7% Ceramic, stone, clay 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.5% -0.4% Iron & Steel 11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 10.7% 6.4% 5.5% 26

25 Nonferrous metals 16.8% 13.0% 11.4% 9.7% 8.9% 7.2% 8.2% Metal products 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% General machinery 0.2% 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.8% Production machinery -0.1% -0.9% -0.8% -0.7% 0.2% -1.8% -1.5% Business oriented -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.4% 1.5% Electronic components, 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% devices Electrical machinery -0.6% -0.9% -1.7% -1.5% -2.1% -2.8% -2.8% Information, -1.5% -1.4% -1.7% -1.2% -1.4% -1.8% -1.9% communication equip. Transportation equip. -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6% -0.8% -1.1% -1.2% Other mfg. Industries 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% Agriculture 6.0% 6.1% 4.3% 3.4% 4.7% 4.4% 3.7% Minerals 2.2% 1.4% 1.0% -0.3% -1.8% -3.1% -4.4% Utilities 9.6% 7.8% 6.5% 2.7% 0.5% -3.6% -6.3% Scrap, waste 40.2% 32.0% 20.7% 6.4% 20.5% 41.2% 36.8% Index Levels All commodities Manufacturing Beverages & Food Textiles Lumber, wood Pulp, paper Chemicals Petroleum, coal Plastic products Ceramic, stone, clay Iron & Steel Nonferrous metals Metal products General machinery Production machinery Business oriented Electronic components, devices Electrical machinery Information, communication equip. Transportation equip Other mfg. Industries Agriculture Minerals Utilities Scrap, waste JAPAN: PPI +2,9% y/y 27

26 JAPAN: battuta d arresto per la produzione industriale a luglio La produzione industriale nel mese di luglio, si è contratta dello 0,8% m/m dopo il +2,2% m/m di giugno, per un dato su base annua passato da +5,5% a +4,7%. Il dato, che rispetto alla stima preliminare non ha subito alcuna variazione, pur confermandosi in territorio positivo per il nono mese di fila, è il peggiore da marzo Le scorte sono diminuite per il terzo mese di fila, questa volta dell 1,1% m/m, per un dato su base annua pari a -2,3%, in miglioramento di un decimale rispetto al mese precedente. La capacità d utilizzo degli impianti è caduta dell 1,8% m/m dopo il +2,1% m/m del mese precedente, attestandosi a quota 100,10 punti, sui massimi da gennaio July July June May April March Feb. Jan Final Prelim M/m% Change Production -0.8% -0.8% 2.2% -3.6% 4.0% -1.9% 3.2% -2.1% Shipments -0.7% -0.7% 2.5% -2.9% 2.7% -0.8% 1.4% -1.1% Inventories -1.1% -1.2% -2.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% Inventory ratio 2.6% 2.4% -1.9% -1.9% 2.9% 0.2% -0.3% 2.5% Y/y% Change Production 4.7% 4.7% 5.5% 6.5% 5.7% 3.5% 4.7% 3.2% Shipments 4.1% 4.1% 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 3.5% 3.7% 4.2% Inventories -2.3% -2.4% -2.9% -1.3% -1.1% -4.0% -3.9% -5.0% Inventory ratio -2.4% -2.6% -4.3% -3.6% -1.1% -5.1% -3.4% -5.0% Seasonally Adjusted Index Level Production Shipments Inventories Inventory ratio Unadjusted Index Level Production Shipments Inventories Inventory ratio JAPAN: produzione industriale+4,7% y/y JAPAN: capacità utilizzo impianti pari al 100,10% 28

27 CHINA-INDIA GDP CURRENT ACCOUNT & TRADE BALANCE INDUSTRIAL GDP at current Yuan (Bln Yuan) 74,413 Current-Account quarterly (Bln $) 18.4 Industrial Prod. Nom. Monthly (Bln Yu GDP at current $ (Bln $) 11,351 Current-Account/GDP % 2.2% m/m% 0.5% y/y% 6.7% Current-Account/GDP % (IMF) % Cum.Industrial Prod. Nom.(Bln Yuan) 7,975 Primary Industry (Bln Yuan) 6,087 Trade Balance monthy (Bln $) 42.0 Industria Production y/y% 6.0% as a % of Nominal GDP 8.2% Exports monthy (Bln $) Industria Production y/y% cumulative 6.7% Secondary Industry (Bln Yuan) 28,056 Exports y/y% 5.5% Light Industry y/y% 4.3% as a % of Nominal GDP 37.7% Imports monthy (Bln $) Heavy Industry y/y% 10.8% Tertiary Industry (Bln Yuan) 34,408 Imports y/y% 13.3% State Owned Industry y/y% 7.8% as a % of Nominal GDP 46.2% Export to USA monthly (Bln $) 39,213 Private Enterprise Industry y/y% 7.4% Guangdong GDP (Bln Yuan) 7,281 Export to EURO monthy (Bln $) 38,187 Collective Enterprise Industry y/y% -2.1% Shandong GDP (Bln Yuan) 6,300 Export to JAPAN monthly (Bln $) 11,158 Partnership Industry y/y% -6.6% Jiangsu GDP (Bln Yuan) 7,012 Export to HK monthly (Bln $) 23,291 Share Holding Industry y/y% 5.8% GDP at constant yuan y/y% 6.9% Export to UK monthly (Bln $) 5,507 Investment Industry y/y% 7.9% GDP at constant yuan y/y% cumulati 6.9% Import from USA monthly (Bln $) 12,982 Industrial Profits (Bln Yuan) 4,248 GDP Primary Industry y/y% cum. 3.5% Import from EURO monthly (Bln $) 27,621 Industrial profits y/y% 21.2% GDP Secondary Industry y/y% cum. 6.4% Import from JAPAN monthly (Bln $) 14,235 Fixed Urban Investment (Bln Yuan) 39,415 GDP Tertiary Industry y/y% cum. 7.7% Import from UK monthly (Bln $) 1,668 Fixed Urban Investment y/y% cum. 7.8% GOVERNMENT DEFICIT & DEBT Import from HK monthly (Bln $) 696 LABOR MARKET Fiscal-balance/GDP % (IMF) % PRICES Urban Unemployment Rate % 4.0% Budget Balance (Bln Yuan) -2,361 CPI m/m% 0.4% Urban unemployed (Mln units) 9.66 Budget Deficit/GDP % -3.2% CPI y/y% 1.8% Urban Tot employed (Mln units) Budget-Rev. yearly (Bln Yuan) 15,227 CPI-Urban y/y% 1.9% Urban SOE employed (Mln units) Budgdet-exp yearly (Bln Yuan) 17,588 CPI-Rural y/y% 1.5% Urban Private employed (Mln units) China Debt Issues (Bln Yuan) 692 CPI-Non-food y/y% 2.3% Population (Mln) 1,379.3 China Debt Issues (Bln $) 106 CPI-Food y/y% -0.2% Urban Population (Mln) Govt-Debt/GDP % (IMF) % PPI m/m% 0.9% Rural Population (Mln) PBOC PPI y/y% 6.3% CONFIDENCE 1-year Lending-rate 4.4% Purchasing Price y/y% 7.7% China Leading Index year Deposit-rate 1.5% Purchasing Price Fuels Power y/y% 11.8% Manufacturing-PMI 51.7 Cash-reserve-ratio 17.0% Wholesale Price y/y% 6.7% Non-Manufacturing-PMI 53.4 PBOC Total Assets (Bln Yuan) 34,714 MONEY SUPPLY & CREDITS RETAIL SALES & SERVICES FX reserves (Bln $) 3,092 M1 y/y% 14.0% Retail Sales monthly (Bln Yuan) 3,033 China Gold reserves (Mln ounces) 59 M2 y/y% 8.9% Retail Sales y/y% 10.1% New Loans monthly (Bln Yuan) 1,090 Retail Sales cum. (Bln Yuan) 23,231 Tot Social Financing m. (Bln Yuan) 1,480 Retail Sales y/y% cumulative 10.4% GDP PRICES INDUSTRIAL World Bank GDP at current $ (Bln $) 2,264 Wholesale Price Index alll-com. y/y% 3.2% Industria Production y/y% 1.2% GDP y/y% 5.3% CPI Combined y/y% 3.4% Manifacturing Production y/y% 0.1% Agriculture GDP y/y% 3.2% Fuel Power & Light y/y% 10.0% Mining Production y/y% 4.8% Mining GDP y/y% 1.9% Primary Articles y/y% 2.7% Basic Goods Production y/y% 2.3% Manufacturing GDP y/y% 0.1% CPI Industrial Workers y/y% 1.8% Intermediate Goods Production y/y% -1.8% Electricity GDP y/y% 8.7% CPI Urban non-manual Workers y/y% 9.4% Consumer Durable Production y/y% -1.3% Construction GDP y/y% 4.6% CPI Agriculture Laborers y/y% 0.8% Non-Durable Production y/y% 3.4% Trade/Hotel/Transp/Comm GDP y/y% 3.8% CPI Rural Laborers y/y% 1.0% Consumer Goods Production y/y% 2.5% Financial/Business GDP y/y% 9.5% CURRENT ACCOUNT & TRADE BALANCE Capital Goods Production y/y% -1.0% Commercial Services GDP y/y% 9.6% Current-Account/GDP % (IMF) % Electricity Production y/y% 6.5% GOVERNMENT DEFICIT & DEBT Trade Balance monthy (Bln $) Six Infrastructure Industries y/y% 2.4% Fiscal-balance/GDP % (IMF) % Exports monthy (Bln $) S.I.I. Crude-petroleum y/y% -0.5% Govt-Debt/GDP % (IMF) % Exports y/y% 10.3% S.I.I. Refinery y/y% -2.7% RESERVE BANK OF INDIA Imports monthy (Bln $) S.I.I. Coal y/y% 0.7% Reverse Repo Rate % 5.75% Imports y/y% 21.0% S.I.I. Cement y/y% -2.0% Repo Rate % 6.00% Oil Imports monthy (Bln $) 7.75 S.I.I. Steel y/y% 9.2% Cash-reserve-ratio 4.00% CONFIDENCE S.I.I. Electric y/y% 5.4% RBI Total Asset (Rs-Crores) HSBX India PMI-Composite LABOR MARKET FX reserves (Bln $) HSBX India PMI-Manufacturing Unemployment-rate estimate (CIA) 8.4% India Gold reserves (Bln $) 20.7 HSBX India PMI-Services Population (Mln) 1,282 INDIA: prezzi al consumo in accelerazione per il secondo mese di fila CHINA INDIA In India i prezzi al consumo nel mese di agosto hanno accelerato per la seconda volta consecutiva. Il loro ritmo di crescita si è intensificato passando da +2,36% a +3,36% y/y vs estimate +3,24% y/y. A spingere verso l alto il dato del CPI sono soprattutto i prezzi del tabacco e delle bevande alcoliche (+6,50% y/y), a differenza di quelli immobiliari (+5,65% y/y), della benzina ed energia elettrica (+4,90% y/y). 29

28 INDIA: prezzi al consumo +3,36% y/y INDIA: i prezzi all ingrosso su base annua riprendono a salire In India il ritmo di crescita dei prezzi all ingrosso nel mese di agosto si è incrementato passando da +1,88% y/y a +3,24% y/y vs estimate +3,20% y/y. I prezzi all ingrosso, sui massimi degli ultimi quattro mesi, si muovono in territorio positivo da luglio INDIA: prezzi all ingrosso +3,24% y/y INDIA: produzione industriale in calo per il secondo mese di fila In India la produzione industriale a luglio si è contratta dell 1,1% m/m dopo il -4,2% m/m. Su base annua il risultato ha evidenziato un inversione del trend, passando dal precedente -0,2% a +1,2% vs estimate +1,6% y/y. Nell ultimo mese due dei tre principali sotto-comparti si sono mossi verso il basso: mining (-6,3% m/m) e manufacturing (-0,8% m/m). L unico a muoversi verso l alto è stato il sottocomparto electricity (+3,0% m/m). La performance su base annua è positiva per tutti i sottocomparti con l electricity (+6,5%) a tenere testa. July June May April March FYTD YoY% YTD% General 1.2% -0.2% 2.8% 3.2% 4.1% 1.7% 6.4% Mining 4.8% 0.4% 0.2% 3.0% 10.1% 2.0% 5.9% Manufacturing 0.1% -0.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 1.3% 6.2% Electricity 6.5% 2.1% 8.3% 5.4% 6.2% 5.6% 7.9% MoM% General -1.1% -4.2% 6.3% -11.9% 11.7% n/a n/a Mining -6.3% -2.8% 2.8% -22.6% 15.6% n/a n/a Manufacturing -0.8% -4.1% 7.1% -11.6% 10.9% n/a n/a Electricity 3.0% -6.8% 5.0% 1.8% 13.6% n/a n/a Index Levels Avg Level General** Mining** Manufacturing** Electricity** INDIA: produzione industriale +1,2% y/y CHINA: produzione industriale in decelerazione nel mese di agosto In Cina la produzione industriale nel mese di agosto ha evidenziato un ritmo di crescita pari al 6,0% y/y vs estimate +6,6% y/y, in decelerazione di quattro decimali rispetto al mese precedente (+6,0% y/y). Trattasi del ritmo di crescita più contenuto da dicembre 2015 (+5,9% y/y). A livello di singoli prodotti, il ritmo di crescita a doppia cifra appartiene all ethylene (+14,5% y/y) e al natural gas (+11,7% y/y). In territorio negativo si muovono coking coal (-5,3% y/y) e cement (-3,7% y/y). Tra i settori si è messo in particolare evidenza quello cars manufacturing (+14,5% y/y). Aug. July June May April March YTD 30

29 Y/y% Output value 6.0% 6.4% 7.6% 6.5% 6.5% 7.6% 6.7% Ethylene 14.5% 1.0% -3.2% -2.0% 1.1% -2.5% -0.7% Crude Oil Processed 6.5% 0.4% 2.3% 5.4% -0.6% 5.9% 3.4% Natural Gas 11.7% 14.7% 14.6% 10.5% 15.0% 10.5% 9.2% Crude Steel 8.7% 10.3% 5.7% 1.8% 4.9% 1.8% 5.6% Steel Product 0.5% 2.7% 0.7% -1.9% 0.5% -0.7% 1.2% Cement -3.7% -0.9% -0.9% 0.5% 2.4% 0.3% -0.5% Coal 4.1% 8.5% 10.6% 12.1% 9.9% 1.9% 5.4% Coking Coal -5.3% 0.1% -1.4% -1.5% 5.9% 4.8% 1.3% Electricity Output 4.8% 8.6% 5.2% 5.0% 5.4% 7.2% 6.5% Motor Vehicles 4.7% 4.3% 6.2% 4.1% 0.3% 4.8% 5.9% Cars 0.1% -3.7% -1.0% -5.8% -8.3% -4.8% -1.1% SUV 9.8% 12.1% 15.4% 15.5% 11.0% 23.7% 17.2% New-Energy Vehicles 56.4% 48.6% 29.2% 27.0% 12.5% 17.9% 25.4% Million Tons Ethylene Crude Oil Processed Crude Steel Steel Product Cement ,537.1 Coal ,300.0 Coking Coal Billion Cubic Meters Natural Gas Billion Kilowatt-hours Electricity Output , Thousand Units Motor Vehicles 2,134 2,073 2,250 2,182 2,209 2,695 18,181 Cars ,057 7,314 SUV ,000 New-Energy Vehicles Aug. July June May April YTD Y/y% Agricultural Food processing 5.6% 6.0% 7.2% 7.4% 8.5% 6.9% Food 7.2% 7.2% 11.0% 7.6% 8.9% 8.6% Textile 3.6% 4.3% 4.9% 5.0% 3.9% 4.4% Raw Chemical Materials 3.2% 2.3% 4.3% 2.8% 3.9% 3.9% Pharmaceutical 11.6% 11.3% 13.6% 10.7% 11.9% 11.7% Non-Metal Mineral Products 1.3% 3.4% 4.1% 4.7% 6.3% 4.7% Ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing 0.9% 2.1% 0.7% -1.9% 0.2% 0.7% Non-Ferous Metal Smelting & Pressing 0.4% 1.1% 3.5% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% General-purpose Equip. 10.7% 11.5% 12.3% 11.5% 10.8% 11.1% Electric Equip. & Mach. 12.6% 11.7% 12.3% 10.7% 9.1% 10.4% Telecommunication & Computer 13.0% 11.8% 14.6% 11.1% 13.0% 13.5% Power & Heat 8.2% 9.7% 6.6% 6.1% 7.8% 8.3% Cars Manufacturing 14.5% 11.8% 13.1% 10.3% 9.2% 13.1% Other Transportation Facilities (*) 5.3% 3.3% 4.6% 6.1% 7.3% 5.1% 31

30 CHINA: produzione industriale +6,0% y/y CHINA: vendite al dettaglio in decelerazione nel mese di agosto In Cina le vendite al dettaglio nel mese di agosto, pari a miliardi di yuan, hanno evidenziato un ritmo di crescita su base annua inferiore al precedente e a quanto stimato in media dal mercato, registrando un +10,1%. Nel mese di luglio il dato era stato pari a +10,4% y/y. Le stime medie degli analisti erano invece per un +10,5% y/y. Trattasi del ritmo di crescita più contenuto da ottobre 2016 (+10,0% y/y). Le migliori performances su base annua appartengono alle sotto-voci cosmetics (+14,7% y/y), communication appliances (+12,2% y/y), e furniture (+11,3% y/y). ================ Aug. July June May April March Feb. YTD ================ Y/y% Retail Sales 10.1% 10.4% 11.0% 10.7% 10.7% 10.9% n/a 10.4% Urban 9.9% 10.2% 10.7% 10.4% 10.4% 10.7% n/a 10.1% Rural 11.5% 11.7% 12.9% 12.7% 12.6% 12.2% n/a 12.1% Accommodation/Catering 10.7% 11.1% 11.9% 11.6% 11.1% 11.1% n/a 11.1% Retail 10.1% 10.3% 10.9% 10.6% 10.6% 10.9% n/a 10.3% Food 8.5% 10.7% 10.9% 14.4% 12.6% 12.0% n/a 11.0% Garments/Textiles 8.9% 6.4% 7.3% 8.0% 10.0% 6.4% n/a 7.3% Office Supplies 5.8% 10.8% 16.4% 5.0% 3.8% 17.2% n/a 10.8% Daily-use Items 7.0% 7.1% 11.2% 8.7% 8.0% 7.1% n/a 8.5% Household Electronics 8.4% 13.1% 13.3% 13.6% 10.2% 12.4% n/a 10.5% Cosmetics 14.7% 12.7% 17.0% 12.9% 7.7% 8.7% n/a 11.9% Furniture 11.3% 12.4% 14.8% 13.5% 13.9% 13.8% n/a 13.0% Construction Materials 8.8% 13.1% 15.2% 11.0% 13.4% 17.8% n/a 13.1% Jewelry 6.4% 2.6% 6.3% 9.6% 7.5% 7.2% n/a 7.1% Communication Appliances 12.2% 7.9% 18.5% 1.9% 6.1% 11.6% n/a 10.1% Automobiles 7.9% 8.1% 9.8% 7.0% 6.8% 8.6% n/a 5.9% Petroleum 4.5% 5.6% 4.2% 9.1% 12.1% 11.3% n/a 9.1% Billion Yuan Retail Sales 3,033 2,961 2,981 2,946 2,728 2,786 n/a 23,231 Urban 2,617 2,547 2,555 2,536 2,348 2,394 n/a 19,943 Rural n/a 3,288 Accommodation/Catering n/a 2,511 Retail 2,697 2,641 2,655 2,625 2,439 2,492 n/a 20,720 CHINA: vendite al dettaglio +10,1% y/y CHINA: investimenti attivi urbani fissi in decelerazione nel mese di agosto In Cina gli investimenti attivi urbani fissi nel mese di agosto, pari a 23,92 mila miliardi di yuan, sono cresciuti su base YTD al ritmo del 7,8% y/y vs estimate +8,2% y/y, in decelerazione di cinque decimali rispetto al mese precedente. Il dato, non più a doppia cifra per il quindicesimo mese di fila, è il più basso da dicembre 1999 (+6,3% y/y). Gli investimenti nell industria primaria (+14,6% y/y) continuano a prevalere rispetto a quelli nell industria terziaria (+8,4% y/y) e secondaria (+4,0% y/y). A livello settoriale i maggiori investimenti si sono concentrati sul telecommunication & computer (+28,7% y/y). Il settore più in difficoltà è invece quello dei railway transoportation (-53,1% y/y). ================ Aug. July June May April March Feb. ================ Year-to-Date Y/y%

31 Investment 6.4% 6.9% 7.2% 6.8% 6.9% 7.7% 6.7% Primary Industry 14.6% 16.3% 16.6% 16.9% 20.0% 21.1% 18.9% Secondary Industry 4.0% 4.3% 4.8% 4.0% 3.8% 4.9% 2.9% Tertiary Industry 8.4% 8.9% 9.0% 9.1% 9.2% 9.8% 9.4% By Industry Petroleum & Natural Gas -17.4% -11.9% -17.5% -21.0% -1.5% 64.8% 116.1% General-purpose Equipment 1.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% -0.6% 1.8% 3.2% Electric Equipment & Machinery 10.2% 10.8% 10.7% 9.5% 6.9% 9.5% 11.8% Telecommunication & Computer 28.7% 28.9% 26.5% 29.4% 26.0% 26.8% 11.8% Power & Heat 7.0% 6.5% 7.5% 6.5% 6.7% 11.7% 14.2% Railway Transportation -53.1% -17.0% -8.9% -10.9% -16.6% 4.4% -11.9% Water Production 8.8% 6.4% 6.0% 7.2% 6.4% 11.8% 8.1% Public Facilities 27.8% 26.5% 28.7% 27.0% 31.4% 32.1% 49.0% Smelting & Pressing Non-metal Minerals 1.2% 0.7% 1.1% -0.7% -1.2% -0.9% -4.2% Ferrous Metals -11.0% -8.5% -7.9% -11.3% -14.2% -11.3% -22.4% Non-ferrous Metals -8.4% -8.4% -8.4% -9.9% -12.4% -7.9% -11.1% Mining & Dressing Non-metal Minerals -12.5% -11.4% -9.9% -9.9% -10.4% -14.9% -11.3% Ferrous Metals -29.8% -28.8% -33.6% -36.7% -39.9% -39.0% -21.3% Non-ferrous Metals -13.7% -13.9% -14.1% -15.2% -13.6% -6.9% -12.0% Billion Yuan Investment 23,915 20,464 17,024 12,433 8,805 5,731 2,498 Primary Industry 1, Secondary Industry 11,737 10,049 8,330 6,107 4,285 2,744 1,118 Tertiary Industry 11,155 9,559 7,997 5,848 4,200 2,793 1,306 By Industry Petroleum & Natural Gas General-purpose Equipment Electric Equipment & Machinery Telecommunication & Computer Power & Heat Railway Transportation Water Production Public Facilities Smelting & Pressing Non-metal Minerals Ferrous Metals Non-ferrous Metals Mining & Dressing Non-metal Minerals Ferrous Metals Non-ferrous Metals CHINA: investimenti attivi urbani fissi +6,4% y/y su base YTD 33