Youth prospects in a time of economic recession. Agnese Vitali 10 November 2014

Transcript

1 Youth prospects in a time of economic recession Agnese Vitali 10 November 2014

2 What is youth? For OECD, Eurostat, World Bank, UN: age 15-24

3 What is youth? For the demographic literature: age 16/18-34 Adulthood is reached when certain markers are achieved (1) Finishing education Achieving economic independence from family of origin Leaving the parental home Staring a family More linked to a status rather than to age Depends on the country (1) Cavalli, A., e Galland, O Youth in Europe, Pinter Pub Limited.

4 Economic crisis and its impact on economic wellbeing of youth Besides falling asset prices, substantial increase in economic uncertainty Measures: Unemployment rate (unemployed on total population) vs. unemployment ratio (unemployed on total active population)

5 Unemployment ratio Men aged 15-64, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on Labour Force Survey data, Eurostat

6 Unemployment ratio Men by age group, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on Labour Force Survey data, Eurostat. Aassve, A., Cottini, E., Fraboni, R., Vitali, A. I giovani e la formazione delle unioni. In: De Rose, A. and Strozza, S. ed. Rapporto Sulla Popolazione. Bologna, Il Mulino, forthcoming.

7 Unemployment ratio Men by age group, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on Labour Force Survey data, Eurostat. Aassve, A., Cottini, E., Fraboni, R., Vitali, A. I giovani e la formazione delle unioni. In: De Rose, A. and Strozza, S. ed. Rapporto Sulla Popolazione. Bologna, Il Mulino, forthcoming.

8 Unemployment ratio Men by age group, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on Labour Force Survey data, Eurostat. Aassve, A., Cottini, E., Fraboni, R., Vitali, A. I giovani e la formazione delle unioni. In: De Rose, A. and Strozza, S. ed. Rapporto Sulla Popolazione. Bologna, Il Mulino, forthcoming.

9 Unemployment ratio Men by age group, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on Labour Force Survey data, Eurostat. Aassve, A., Cottini, E., Fraboni, R., Vitali, A. I giovani e la formazione delle unioni. In: De Rose, A. and Strozza, S. ed. Rapporto Sulla Popolazione. Bologna, Il Mulino, forthcoming.

10 Unemployment ratio Men by age group, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on Labour Force Survey data, Eurostat. Aassve, A., Cottini, E., Fraboni, R., Vitali, A. I giovani e la formazione delle unioni. In: De Rose, A. and Strozza, S. ed. Rapporto Sulla Popolazione. Bologna, Il Mulino, forthcoming.

11 Youth unemployment increased more rapidly than the overall level of unemployment Younger youth (15-19) particularly affected in UK and Nordic countries

12 NEETs Men, years old, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on EU Labour Force Survey, Eurostat.

13 NEETs Men, years old, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on EU Labour Force Survey, Eurostat.

14 NEETs Men, years old, 2007 and 2013 Source: Own analyses on EU Labour Force Survey, Eurostat.

15 NEETs Italian Men by age group, Source: Aassve, A., Cottini, E., Fraboni, R., Vitali, A. I giovani e la formazione delle unioni. In: De Rose, A. and Strozza, S. ed. Rapporto Sulla Popolazione. Bologna, Il Mulino, forthcoming.

16 Sharp increase in NEETs for youth aged and NEETs increase also among the 30+ in some countries Younger youth (15-19) not particularly affected

17 Poverty in 2001 UK, Ireland and Nordic countries Source: Aassve, A., Iacovou, M. and Mencarini, L. (2006). Youth poverty and transition to adulthood in Europe. Demographic Research 15(2):

18 Poverty rate by age, Northern EU 2007 and 2010 Source: Own analyses of EU-SILC data, 2007 and 2010 (cross sectional).

19 Subjective measures of economic difficulties Financial deprivation % youth experiencing great difficulty in making ends meet Captures how young people perceive their own financial situations

20 Financial deprivation by age, 2007 and 2011 Source: Own analyses of EU-SILC data, 2007 and 2010 (cross sectional). Cottini, E. and Vitali, A. I giovani e la Grande Recessione. In: Lucifora, C. and Cappellari, L., ed. Economia della Popolazione: Disuguaglianza, Famiglia e Migrazioni. Milano, IT, Vita e Pensiero, 2014,

21 Financial deprivation by age group, 2007 and 2011 Source: Own analyses of EU-SILC data, 2007 and 2010 (cross sectional). Cottini, E. and Vitali, A. I giovani e la Grande Recessione. In: Lucifora, C. and Cappellari, L., ed. Economia della Popolazione: Disuguaglianza, Famiglia e Migrazioni. Milano, IT, Vita e Pensiero, 2014,

22 Financial deprivation by age, 2007 and 2011 Source: Own analyses of EU-SILC data, 2007 and 2010 (cross sectional). Cottini, E. and Vitali, A. I giovani e la Grande Recessione. In: Lucifora, C. and Cappellari, L., ed. Economia della Popolazione: Disuguaglianza, Famiglia e Migrazioni. Milano, IT, Vita e Pensiero, 2014,

23 Financial deprivation by age group, 2007 and 2011 Source: Own analyses of EU-SILC data, 2007 and 2010 (cross sectional). Cottini, E. and Vitali, A. I giovani e la Grande Recessione. In: Lucifora, C. and Cappellari, L., ed. Economia della Popolazione: Disuguaglianza, Famiglia e Migrazioni. Milano, IT, Vita e Pensiero, 2014,

24 Sharp increase in financial deprivation In most countries, the younger youth aged are the most dissatisfied with their current financial situation

25 Conclusions The current economic crisis changes the prospects of young people The impact of the crisis differs greatly across welfare regimes and countries

26 Implications for the transition to adulthood Economic independence form parents represents an important marker of the transition to adulthood and a critical driver of family formation (1) Youth unemployment, poverty and deprivation contribute to a delay in leaving the parental home and starting a family (2,3,4) (1) Furstenberg, F.F On a new schedule: Transitions to adulthood and family change, The future of children, 20(1), (2) Mykyta, L Economic downturns and the failure to launch: the living arrangements of young adults in the US , US Census Bureau Social, Economic and Housing Statistics Division (SEHSD), Working Paper 24. (3) Stone, J., Berrington, A., e Falkingham, J Gender, Turning Points, and Boomerangs: Returning Home in Young Adulthood in Great Britain, Demography, 51(1), pp (4) Goldstein, J.R., Kreyenfeld, M., Jasilioniene, A. e Karaman Örsal, D Fertility reactions to the Great Recession in Europe: Recent evidence from order-specific data, Demographic Research, 29(4),