Electric Vehicles CO2 emissions in Italy. Jérôme MASSIANI Marco Byloos

Transcript

1 Electric Vehicles CO2 emissions in Italy Jérôme MASSIANI Marco Byloos

2 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions

3 EV claims «EV are Zero Emissions on the road but emit in the plant» «Emissions can be estimated on energy mix» «Emissions during car manufacturing are not so fundamental» «EV can be used to even the energy requirement peak through intelligent charging schemes or Vehicle to grid ««EV can become beneficial to society if fed by renewable»

4 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions

5 EV emissions: results and methods Technical Regolatory Source Marg. Method Vehicle Recharge Emissions Grid nature CO2e/km (key-data prod. source) efficiency losses anno Time pattern Capping on energy production Regulation 443 Menga e Ceraolo (2008) Energetic mix 375 g/kwh (ENEL) 55 yes (2010) no Perujo e Ciuffo (2009) M. Benini et al. (2010) Wilson (2013) Rusich e Danielis (2013) Energetic mix 194 g/kwh (elab. from EEA data) Micro simulation yes (MATISSE and MTSIM models) Energetic mix 70 g /km 389,9 g/kwh (source: IEA) Energetic mix 340 g/kwh (source: EPA) 40 (2009) yes yes no 68 (2030) 170 yes (2010) 64 (2013) no yes

6 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions

7 Estimation method 45,00 45,00 40,00 45,00 40,00 45,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 35,00 40,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 30,00 35,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 25,00 30,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 20,00 25,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 15,00 20,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 10,00 15,00 5,0010,00 15,00 5,0010,00 0,005,0010,00 0,001 5, ,001 5,00 2 Geotermico Solare ed 13 eolico Idroelettrico ,001 2 Importazioni Geotermico Carbone 10 Solare ed 13 eolico Altri 17Idroelettrico 18 combustibili ,001 Gas 2 Importazioni Geotermico Carbone 10 Solare ed 13 eolico Altri 17Idroelettrico 18 combustibili Gas 2 Importazioni Geotermico Carbone 10 Solare ed 13 eolico Altri 17Idroelettrico 18 combustibili Gas Importazioni Geotermico Elaborazione dati TERNA Carbone Solare e GSE ed eolico del mese di Altri giugno combustibili 2014 Gas Importazioni Elaborazione dati TERNA Carbonee GSE del mese di Altri giugno combustibili 2014 Gas Elaborazione dati TERNA e GSE del mese di giugno 2014 Elaborazione dati TERNA e GSE del mese di giugno 2014 Elaborazione dati TERNA e GSE del mese di giugno 2014 Mw Mw Mw Mw Mw

8 Estimation method 2 Gas, coal, others MWh Coal h21 N.Gas h21 Other fuels h Therm. total MWh Fossil fuel technologies response to demand variation (9:00 PM) 48th week

9 Estimation method 3 Periodo caldo Agosto Periodo temperato Periodo freddo

10 Hourly profile of EV reload EVs increase the peak Pasaoglu, G., et al. 2013, Projections for Electric Vehicle Load Profiles in Europe Based on Travel Survey Data.

11 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions

12 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Average emissions Scheme The future Conclusions

13 Emissioni g CO2e/km Sett. Sett. 31 Sett. 37 Sett. 48 Feriali 96, ,2 94,4 Sabato 96, ,7 94,3 Domenica 96,7 98,3 92,6 94,6 94 g/km

14 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Average emissions Reloading schemes A look at the future Conclusions

15 Schemi di ricarica Valley-filling GW Picco serale V2G: 50 % di deperdizione Minimo notturno Thermoelectric load +10GWh +30GWh +50GWh +75GWh +100GWh Smooth GW Minimo notturno Picco serale Thermoelectric load +10GWh +30GWh +50GWh +75GWh +100GWh

16 Schemi aumentano le emissioni g CO2e/km n regolato Valleyfilling settimana settimana 21 settimana 37 settimana 48 feriali Sabato Domenica feriali Sabato Domenica feriali Sabato Domenica feriali Sabato Domenica 96,2 96,8 96, ,3 93,2 92,7 92,6 94,4 94,3 94,6 100,1 98,5 97,6 99,8 100,2 99,6 101,4 95, ,1 100,8 Smooth 99,5 98,7 98,1 100,2 100,3 99,9 98,7 96,3 95,6 105,9 100,9 99,8 Uncoordinated: 94 gco2e/km Valley filling: gco2e/km Smooth: 101,7 gco2e/km Schemi aumentano costi sociali costi privati

17 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Average emissions Reloading schemes A look at the future Conclusions

18 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Average emissions Reloading schemes A look at the future Conclusions

19 Prospettive GWh Geotermico Eolico Solare Idroeletrico Nucleare Importazioni Carbone Altri combustibili Gas naturale Gas Forte capacità istallata Bassi tassi di utilizzo Moderati costi di attivazione / disattivazione Rinnovabili (40% di energia elettrica prodotta) n rispondono a variazione della domanda

20 Summary EV emission claims Current methods unsatisfactory The marginal calculation Results Conclusions

21 EV emissions g CO 2 e/km Conventional view Model results Real world ICE Tailpipe emissions Energy generation Vehicle manufacturing 0 nd 123 ** * 94, Negl. nd Total nd [*] most significant results [**] due to the Regulation (EC) 443/2009 and the European Energy Trade System

22 Frequent claims «EV are Zero Emissions on the road but emit in the plant» «Emissions can be estimated on energy mix» «Emissions during car manufacturing are not so fundamental» «EV can be used to even the energy requirement peak through intelligent charging schemes or Vehicle to grid ««EV can become beneficial to society if fed by renewable»

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