Fundamentals and methods for impact evaluation of public policies

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Fundamentals and methods for impact evaluation of public policies Course programme 17-22 February

ricerca valutativa sulle politiche pubbliche Fondazione Bruno Kessler Via S.

1 Fundamentals and methods for impact evaluation of public policies Course programme February 2014 Department of Sociology and Social Research Via Verdi, 26 - Trento FBK-IRVAPP Istituto per la ricerca valutativa sulle politiche pubbliche Fondazione Bruno Kessler Via S. Croce, Trento Istituto Veneto di Scienze, Lettere ed Arti Campo S. Stefano, Venezia Via Belenzani, Trento

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3 MONDAY 17 FEBRUARY Introduction Antonio Schizzerotto, Director of IRVAPP Ugo Trivellato Ugo Trivellato Introduction to impact evaluation: preliminary remarks and concepts. Potential outcomes and the fundamental problem of causal inference. Conditions for learning about the causal effects of a programme. Causal parameters and selection bias. A taxonomy of selection processes and identification strategies: selection bias as a heterogeneity problem; random assignment; selection on observables; selection on unobservables. Internal and external validity of an evaluation design. Evaluation strategies and data requirements: prospective vs. retrospective evaluation, data requirements. TUESDAY, 18 FEBRUARY Erich Battistin Loris Vergolini Impact evaluation in an experimental setting: design and implementation of randomized experiments; minimum detectable effects. observables (I): stratification and matching; curse of dimensionality. Training session Introduction to regression; estimation of the Average Treatment effect on the Treated (ATT) via regression. 3

4 WEDNESDAY, 19 FEBRUARY Erich Battistin lunch observables (II): propensity score and matching. observables (III): operationalising matching. p.m. Free afternoon THURSDAY, 20 FEBRUARY Enrico Rettore Loris Vergolini Impact evaluation in an observational setting, the case of selection based on discontinuity rules: Sharp and Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Impact evaluation in an observational setting, the case of selection on unobservables (I): longitudinal estimators: difference-in-differences for panel data and repeated cross-sections; estimators and standard errors. Training session Sharp and fuzzy RDD. 4

5 FRIDAY, 21 FEBRUARY Sascha O. Becker Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator: Was Weber Wrong? A Human Capital Theory of Protestant Economic History Synthetic Control Method (SCM): The Impact of Public Employment: Evidence from Bonn Enrico Rettore Impact evaluation in an observational setting, the case of selection on unobservables (II): the Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator; weak instruments; heterogeneity of the causal effect and characterization of the sub-population to which the IV estimator refers to. Evaluation designs, testable implications and over-identification tests. SATURDAY, 22 FEBRUARY Slavica Zec lunch and break Training session Propensity score matching and difference-indifferences Erich Battistin, Enrico Rettore and Ugo Trivellato Questions & Answers session. Closing 5

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