Introduction on Scientific Aspects and Operational Impacts

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1 «The Multi-functional Nature of the Aerospace Domain: a European Approach» October 2014, Firenze, Italy Introduction on Scientific Aspects and Operational Impacts Umberto Villante University of L Aquila Thanks: M.Messerotti

2 SPACE WEATHER SOURCES

3 SPACE WEATHER SOURCES ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION SUN SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLES CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS SPACE WEATHER SOURCES SOLAR WIND STREAMS HIGH ENERGY SOURCES GAMMA RAY BURSTS COSMIC RAYS

4 SOLAR EMISSIONS ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION: Photons Flashes of ɣ, UV, X and RADIO Travel Time to Earth: ~ 8 min PARTICLES: Protons, Electrons, Ions Solar Wind Streams Travel Time to Earth: ~ 3-4 days Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) Travel Time to Earth: ~ 1-2 days Energetic Particles Travel Time to Earth: ~ 20 min-48 hrs

5 The solar cycle The sunspot number

6 SOLAR CYCLE 24 6

7 SOLAR CORONA

Predicted: Parker (1958) SOLAR WIND Detected: Mariner II (1962) (400-600 km/s) Earth (and other

8 Predicted: Parker (1958) SOLAR WIND Detected: Mariner II (1962) ( km/s) Earth (and other planets) imbedded in the solar wind Corona continuously expanding outward solar wind «frozen-in» magnetic field

9 SOLAR WIND Composition: Protons ~ 95% He ++ ~ 4% Heavier ions ~ 1% Electric neutrality: N p + = N e - At the Earth s orbit: Speed ~ km/s Number density ~ 5-10 cm -3 Magnetic Field ~ 3-10 nt

10 Recurrent Solar Wind Streams (solar minimum) Solar wind speed (km/s) Solar Rotation Solar Rotation Solar Rotation Days

11 Solar wind streams originate from coronal holes Recurrent solar wind streams typically occur during solar minima

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) Conversion

13 Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) Conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic energy in active regions Huge plasma bubbles injected from the corona into the interplanetary space (~ km/s) Most frequent during solar maximum; not absent in other phases

15 THE INTERACTION WITH THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD

16 THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD Dipole characteristics: Magnetic Moment: M~8*10 22 Am 2 Inclination: δ ~ 11 Equatorial Field: H eq ~ nt In absence of solar wind

17 THE EARTH S MAGNETOSPHERE Solar wind Due to the Earth s Magnetic Field: Solar wind access inhibited Formation of the magnetosphere Stand-off distance: ~ 10 R E in solar direction Geomagnetic tail: > 200 R E in antisolar direction

18 THE EARTH S MAGNETOSPHERE Several currents and plasma populations permeate the magnetosphere

19 CMES and MAGNETIC STORMS ICME SHOCK FRONT ambient solar wind Geomagnetic field trace Initial Sudden Increase: determined by the compression due to the ICME impact. Geomagnetic storm: worldwide decrease of the geomagnetic field due to a strong intensification of the Ring Current (lasting 1-2 days).

20 INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOLAR WIND AND THE MAGNETOSPHERE B z north Solar wind Closed magnetosphere No solar wind access No storm Solar wind Interplanetary Magnetic Field B z south Open magnetosphere: Solar wind access through neutral points N Transmission of the electric field E= V sw xb Geomagnetic storm Storm occurrence controlled by the N/S orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

22 Space Weather Now

MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF ACTIVE SOLAR CONDITIONS (ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION + CMEs) Increased radiation in space and high atmosphere. Atmospheric heating and expansion.

23 MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF ACTIVE SOLAR CONDITIONS (ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION + CMEs) Increased radiation in space and high atmosphere. Atmospheric heating and expansion. Strong perturbations of the geomagnetic field (Magnetic Storms). Intensification in the radiation belts. Perturbations in the ionospheric density and onset of intense ionospheric currents. Intense ground induced currents (GIC).

25 MAIN SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS Interference with Communication and Navigation Astronaut Safety and Airline Passenger Exposure to Radiation Computer and Memory Failures on Satellites Black-outs in the Electric Power Distribution Pipeline Corrosion Severe storm: billions of euros

26 SOME IMPORTANT REMARKS Super and Relevant Storms may occur in any phase of the solar cycle. Difficult prediction of the CME occurrence and characteristics; understanding of geoefficiency aspects to be improved. Solar Storms have severe technological impact and social costs. A full awareness of their social and economic consequences is mandatory.

27 SPACE WEATHER IN ITALY (dr. Zolesi contribution) Deep experience and expertise in the entire chain of the Space Weather: from the Sun, to the interplanetary medium, magnetosphere, ionosphere, geomagnetic field. Italian groups involved in several international programs and space missions. Several sophisticated ground arrays available.

A NATIONAL GROUP ON SPACE WEATHER A National Group on Space Weather (Space Weather Italian Community, SWICO) will be officially established on October, 31.

28 A NATIONAL GROUP ON SPACE WEATHER A National Group on Space Weather (Space Weather Italian Community, SWICO) will be officially established on October, 31. More than 100 researchers registered from several universities, INAF, INGV and other institutions. SWICO will operate as a whole in participation to international programs and in cooperation with industries, national services, etc.

29 Consorzio Interuniversitario per la Fisica Spaziale International School of Space Science - L Aquila ISSS Director : U.Villante 1991 August Infrared and submillimetric astronomy from space 2000 August Sun-Earth connection and Space Weather 2007 September Turbulence and Waves in Space Plasmas 1992 September Ultraviolet and optical astonomy from space 2001 August Astroparticle and gamma ray physics in space 2008 April Geomagnetism and Ionosphere 1993 August Solar system plasma physics 2002 August Cosmology and Fundamental Physics from space 2009 April Solar Terrestrial Physics from the Polar Regions 1994 August 1995 August 1996 August X-Ray Astronomy 2003 September Physics of planets and planetary environments Space science from the space station 2004 August 2005 September New Prospects for Space Observations of the Dynamics of the Sun The new Solar System: from Cassini toward a Second Generation of Exploratory Missions Gamma-Ray Bursts:from Astophysics to Cosmology 2010 September 2011 April 2012 September Gamma-ray Astrophysics in the Multimessenger Context -Trieste- Frontiers of Space Science: from Solar Activity to NEOs Astrophysical and Space Plasmas 1997 September The Sun as seen from space 2006 March The Physics of the Sun: The active Sun on your active desktop 2014 April Observing the Universe with the Cosmic Microwave Background 1998 September 1999 August 3K Cosmology from space 2006 September High-resolution observations in astronomy 2007 April Advanced School in Space Environment- ASSE 2006 Solar Terrestrial Physics Magnetospheric Dynamics 2014 September 2015 spring Towards a Deeper Understanding of the Sun and the Heliosphere with Solar Orbiter Space Weather, 1

30 Thanks for your attention

I PIÙ INTENSI BRILLAMENTI SOLARI 300 250 SI VERIFICANO IN QUALSIASI FASE DEL CICLO!

31 I PIÙ INTENSI BRILLAMENTI SOLARI SI VERIFICANO IN QUALSIASI FASE DEL CICLO! SN Prominent X Flares Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 21/01/2014 UNI TS Dipartimento di Fisica M. Messerotti 31

32 TEMPESTE GEOMAGNETICHE ESTREME (CIRCA 1 EVENTO PER CICLO SOLARE) Carrington Sett Grande Tempesta 16 Mag.1921 (Carrington+) 4 Ago (Gonzalez et al., 2010) 13 Mar.1989 POSSONO VERIFICARSI IN QUALSIASI FASE DEL CICLO SOLARE ANCHE IN CICLI SOLARI DI MODESTA ENTITÀ 21/01/2014 UNI TS Dipartimento di Fisica M. Messerotti 32

33 PROBABILITÀ DI SEMPLICISTICA OCCORRENZA LA SUPERTEMPESTA DI CARRINGTON-HODGSON È STATA UNA DELLE PIÙ INTENSE DEGLI ULTIMI 500 ANNI CADENZA: CIRCA ANNI 153 ANNI DALL ULTIMO EVENTO SUPERTEMPESTE COME LA GRANDE TEMPESTA DEL 1921 (CARRINGTON+) CADENZA: CIRCA 100 ANNI 91 ANNI DALL ULTIMO EVENTO 21/01/2014 UNI TS Dipartimento di Fisica M. Messerotti 33

34 Fattori per la Pianificazione dello Space Weather Fattori per la pianificazione: 100 milioni di persone senza elettricità fino a 36 ore. 35 milioni di persone senza elettricità fino a 2 settimane in 3 Regioni FEMA ed in 6 Stati. 10 milioni di persone senza elettricità fino a 2 21/01/2014 UNI TS Dipartimento di Fisica M. Messerotti 34 mesi.

35 DIMENSIONI DEI FENOMENI 21/01/2014 UNI TS Dipartimento di Fisica M. Messerotti 35

CONCLUSIONI LA METEOROLOGIA DELLO SPAZIO STUDIA LE PERTURBAZIONI SPAZIALI ED IL LORO IMPATTO SUGLI AMBIENTI PLANETARI, CON PARTICOLARE RIGUARDO ALLA TERRA ED ALLA SOCIETÀ UMANA.

36 CONCLUSIONI LA METEOROLOGIA DELLO SPAZIO STUDIA LE PERTURBAZIONI SPAZIALI ED IL LORO IMPATTO SUGLI AMBIENTI PLANETARI, CON PARTICOLARE RIGUARDO ALLA TERRA ED ALLA SOCIETÀ UMANA. LE POSSIBILITÀ DI PREVISIONE E DI MITIGAZIONE DEGLI EFFETTI SONO ANCORA PIUTTOSTO LIMITATE. UNA SUPERTEMPESTA MAGNETICA DI TIPO CARRINGTON È ATTESA NEI PROSSIMI ANNI (MA NON POSSIAMO SAPERE QUANDO) E PROVOCHERÀ DANNI E DISAGI SIGNIFICATIVI, SE NON SAREMO ADEGUATAMENTE PREPARATI OVVERO NON CI DOTEREMO DI UN EFFICIENTE SISTEMA DI MONITORAGGIO DA TERRA E DALLO SPAZIO E NON AVREMO UN SISTEMA DI ALLERTA E DI INTERVENTO CON COLLAUDATE PROCEDURE DI RISPOSTA E TECNICHE DI MITIGAZIONE. SUPERTEMPESTE MAGNETICHE DI CLASSE INFERIORE SONO MOLTO PIÙ PROBABILI ED AVRANNO COMUNQUE IMPATTI SIGNIFICATIVI. DIVENGONO PERTANTO IMPERATIVE LA CONSAPEVOLEZZA SUGLI EFFETTI POSSIBILI E LA PREPARAZIONE AD AFFRONTARLI IN MODO COORDINATO PER MINIMIZZARNE IMPATTO E COSTO SOCIALE. 21/01/2014 UNI TS Dipartimento di Fisica M. Messerotti 36

CONCLUSIONI IN USA ESISTE UN PROGRAMMA NAZIONALE SIA PER IL MONITORAGGIO E LA PREVISIONE DELLO SPACE WEATHER CHE PER LA GESTIONE DELLE EMERGENZE RELATIVE.

37 CONCLUSIONI IN USA ESISTE UN PROGRAMMA NAZIONALE SIA PER IL MONITORAGGIO E LA PREVISIONE DELLO SPACE WEATHER CHE PER LA GESTIONE DELLE EMERGENZE RELATIVE. IN EUROPA SI STANNO SVILUPPANDO VARIE ATTIVITÀ NELL AMBITO DEL PROGETTO SPACE WEATHER AWARENESS (SSA) PROMOSSO DALL ESA, CUI PARTECIPANO MOLTE NAZIONI EUROPEE ANCHE ATTRAVERSO LE AGENZIE SPAZIALI NAZIONALI. IN TALE CONTESTO, LE NAZIONI EUROPEE PIÙ AVANZATE DISPONGONO DI UN PROGRAMMA NAZIONALE PER LO SPACE WEATHER CHE CONSENTE LORO, DA UN LATO, DI POTER CONTARE SU UN AUTONOMIA OPERATIVA E, DALL ALTRO, DI CONTRIBUIRE APPIENO AL SEGMENTO DI SPACE WEATHER DELLA SSA DELL ESA. È PERTANTO OPPORTUNO CHE L ITALIA SI DOTI DI UN SIMILE STRUMENTO OPERATIVO, COORDINANDO LE RISORSE DI CONOSCENZA E STRUMENTALI GIÀ ESISTENTI IN QUESTO CAMPO. 21/01/2014 UNI TS Dipartimento di Fisica M. Messerotti 37

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