8(+#.%09:;%:% 86<=>%0% 0!>?=0-046@0A?>%!0%BA!>CC0%!0?6B040%
8(+#.%09:;%D% E+.7'%+',F'(G'%.%,")H'1.+(3'")'%')#+"1/##'7.I!! -!'.)"*'(-'$%*'/'("(&,0,(*,-"&&'.5/%(!"#$%&'()&& - 3%0'%4'&'(%&"%),0'"("(+0,/"..'(.),/%.5/'( -!"#$%&'(%()"*+,(-'./0"),("()0%.1,0*%)"(2")%(!"#$%&'(*&& +,%#-.$"/.01.&%& -0234%2%15&
8(+#.%09:;%J% 8(+#.%0901.)#'2',(3'").%1'%% G"1.55'%1')(G','% % :I%K'H#.G'%1')(G','%.%G"1.55'% 1%-%,,.$6&7.&207%44"#%&4"&#%"4$6& 207%44.&8"&,-"$04"&9."1-":&%&207%44.&8"&,-"$04"&1%#":&
8(+#.%09:;%L% 8.+,FM%(NN'(G"%N'H"O)"%1'%G"1.55'P% 6,$.)07/5$#(*,-"&.(1,0(%(.&'/"(,1(0"%&')8(%$-(.)7-8'$#()9"'0(+0,+"05".('.( 0"%&&8(:9%)(./'"$/"('.(%4,7);(<9"(207%4,(=(>!"#$"%&'!"#(#(?@(>!"#$)*+($',$ -*!./#?@(>!"#$&*/*0123(?(=(/%$(9%&0;&"&20#%&0#&4%,,&;0#2"4&-<"#"-$%#@( 47)( )9"8( %&&( 9%A"( )9"( 17$-%*"$)%&( +0,+"0)8( )9%)( )9"8( $#=& $0& 4.1>& 09,%#?"501,&$0&,02%&3"@%#1;( ( ( B-%(C;(CD7$#@(<;(E&%-@(>F,-"&'$#(,1(G8$%*'/(!8.)"*.?@(H0"$5/"(I%&&@(JKKLM(
8(+#.%09:;%Q% K'H#.G'%.%G"1.55'% N! A.,$%2"& =! 7$(,##"O,(,++70"(7$('$.'"*"(-'(,##"P@(&"(+0,+0'")Q(-"&(R7%&"(.,$,(/'S(/9"(.'(A7,&"(.)7-'%0"( (!'.)"*%@(H0,/"..,@(T*+'%$),( H%0%*")0'(-"&(!'.)"*%( 3%0'%4'&"(/,$)0,&&%)%(U7./')%V( 3%0'%4'&"(-'(/,$)0,&&,(UA%0'%4'&"(*%$'+,&%4'&"V( 3%0'%4'&"(-'(-'.)704,(UA%0'%4'&"($,$(*%$'+,&%4'&"V(
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
8(+#.%09:;%S% N! B07%440&2"$%2"5-0& =! &"( #%4"/.01.( $#"& 4%& CD"15$6& -'( '$)"0".."( -"&(.'.)"*%( U-'.)%$W"@( ]7..'@('$)"$.')Q(-'(/,00"$)"@(R7%$5)Q(-'(*%..%("//;V(.,$,(-"./0'O"( +"0( *"WW,( -'( #%4"/.01.& 2"$%2"5-<%@( )0%*')"( "R7%W',$'( %&#"40'/9"@("R7%W',$'(-'^"0"$W'%&'(,++70"("R7%W',$'(%&&"(-'^"0"$W"(( =! &"( &"##'( -"&&%( _.'/%@( -"&&%( /9'*'/%@( -"&&X"&"O0,*%#$"5.*,(.,$,( 75&'( +"0(,O"$"0"( *,-"&&'( *%)"*%5/'( -'(.'.)"*'( -'$%*'/'( *"//%$'/'@(/9'*'/'@("&"O0,*"//%$'/'("//;(
8(+#.%09:;%T% `'%..7*"$-,( ( =! 7$(.'.)"*%( +7S( ".."0"( /,*+&"..,@( &%(.7%(.)07O70%( +7S( ".."0"( /,*+&'/%)%(-%(-"./0'A"0"a.)7-'%0"( =! *,-"&&,Z( 7$%( '-"%&'WW%W',$"( -"&(.'.)"*%@( 7$%(."*+&'_/%W',$"@( 7$X%++0,..'*%W',$"( /9"( /%O70%a-"./0'A"( '&( /,*+,0)%*"$),( ".."$W'%&"(-"&(.'.)"*%( =! ".%*'$%0"('&(/,*+,0)%*"$),(-"&(.'.)"*%(0"%&"(+7S(".."0"(/,.),.,( U'( )".)( +,0)%$,( %( +0,-,P( -'1"O,.'(,( /,*7$R7"( $,$( A"$-'4'&'V@( +"0'/,&,.,( U'( )".)(.,$,( +"0'/,&,.'( +"0( &%(.'/70"WW%( -"&&X'*+'%$),V(,++70"('*+,..'4'&"(U'&(.'.)"*%($,$(".'.)"(%$/,0%V( =! 7$( *,-"&&,( %-"#7%),( -"&(.'.)"*%( +7S( ".."0"( -X%'7),( '$( )7O"( R7".)"(.')7%W',$'( (
8(+#.%09:;%U% >H.GV'%1'%(VV5',(3'")'% N! +0,#"O%W',$"(-'($7,A'(+0,/"..'a-'.+,.'5A'(U".;(7$($7,A,(*,-"&&,(-'( %7),*,4'&"(YV( N!.'$)".'(-'(.'.)"*'(-'(/,$)0,&&,( N! +0"-'W',$"(U".;(+0"A'.',$'(*")",@(.)7-'("/,$,*")0'/'("//;V( N! "&%4,0%W',$"(-'(."#$%&'(U".;(/%$/"&&%W',$"(%PA%(-'(07*,0"(%/7.5/,V( N!.'*7&%W',$"(U".;(%--".)0%*"$),(-"&(+"0.,$%&"(%-(%^0,$)%0"(.')7%W',$'( +%05/,&%0'V( N! 0'&"A%0"(/,*+,0)%*"$5(%$,*%&'(+"0('&(.'.)"*%(U*%&17$W',$%*"$5@( #7%.5@(10,-'("//;V(
8(+#.%09:;%:W% K'H#.G(%1')(G',"% & =! '&( A%&,0"( %O7%&"( -"&&X7./')%( 101( -'+"$-"(.,&)%$),( -%&( A%&,0"( /,00"$)"( -"&&X'$#0"..,@( *%( %$/9"( -%&&X%?04D/.01%& 3",,"$"( -"&(.'.)"*%( U-%&&%( >.),0'%( +%..%)%?( -"&(.'.)"*%VZ( /10;( >8#'/1*$ 0#1$ 91(!#31$#$0#)$:'-!/'))'?("a,(>;'-0*3#-<$01$=.!'3*<7*?;( (?
8(+#.%09:;%::% &5'%.H.GV'%1'%H'H#.G(%1')(G',"%H")"%1(77.+"%'))/G.+.7"5'I% N!(`")"(-'(/,*7$'/%W',$"( N!(b-'_/',(U/&'*%5WW%W',$"@(+0,-7W',$"("a,(/,$.7*,(-'("$"0#'%("//;V( N!(c"0",( N!(F%$'+,&%),0"(0,4,5/,( N!(T*+'%$),()"0*,"&"O0'/,( N!(!'.)"*%(-'(+0,-7W',$"(%7),*%5WW%),( N!(Y(
>H.GV'"%:I%+"N"#%')1/H#+'(5.! 8(+#.%09:;%:D% *%$'+,&%),0"(%$)0,+,*,01,(%(d(Gef(!! '$(,#$'(#'7$),([('$.)%&&%),(7$(*,),0"("&"O0'/,(!! #&'(.1E#%,,.&2"1.304"9.4.&.,$,(&"(/,++'"( *,)0'/'(.A'&7++%)"(-%'(*,),0'(!! &XD,-.$"(/,'$/'-"(/,$(&%(+,.'W',$"(-"&&X7&5*,( #'7$),(U/9"(/,&&"#%(&%(+%0)"()"0*'$%&"@('&( /,.'--"O,(#-0>#?#7!'/@(/,$(&"(0".)%$5(+%05( -"&(0,4,)V(!! '&(/%0'/,(-"&(40%//',(U&X7)"$.'&"(/,&&"#%),(%&( #-0>#?#7!'/$+"0(".;V("(#&'(%O0'5()0%(&"(A%0'"( +%05(/,.5)7'./,$,('(7.,$D#9.&
q(t) =[ϑ 1 ϑ 2 ϑ 3 ϑ 4 ϑ 5 ϑ 6 ] T 8(+#.%09:;%:J% T$#0"..,(*%$'+,&%4'&"Z(/,++'"(*,)0'/'(-"'(*,),0'(%'(#'7$5( g./')%z(+,.%(-"&(40%//',("-('$(+%05/,&%0"(+,.'w',$"((-"&&x(#-0>#?#7!'/$ cw',$"(-"&&%(1,0w%(-'(#0%a')q(u/%0'/9'v( 6,++'"("(1,0W"(-'(%O0'),(UA'./,.,VZ((( G (q(t)) H (q(t), q(t)) q(t) τ(t) q(t)
8(+#.%09:;%:L% N! 207%440& 7.1"2.-0Z( [( +,..'4'&"(./0'A"0"( 7$( *,-"&&,('$(1,0*%(-'(#@.*A1'-#$01?#/#-A1*)#( 4%.%$-,.'(.7&&"(&"##'(-"&&%(*"//%$'/%Z( +,.'W',$"( -"&(0,4,)( A"&,/')Q(-"&(0,4,)( %W',$"(-"'(*,),0'(( N! C%(,04D/.01%( -"&(.'.)"*%( -'( "R7%W',$'( -'^"0"$W'%&'( -'+"$-"( -%'( 3"#"2%$#.&7%4&,.,$%2"&3#%,%15&$"&&"(".+0"..',$'(-"'()"0*'$'( M ( ), H( ), G( )
8(+#.%09:;%:Q% N!?"4.7.$6&7%4&207%440Z(R7%&'(.,$,(&"('+,)".'(-'(A%&'-')Q(-"&(*,-"&&,h( N! +"0(,O"$"0"(.'%( &%( -'.)0'47W',$"( -"'( /%0'/9'( U'( -'.)704'V( /9"( &%( -"./0'W',$"(-"&&"(/,++'"('$"0W'%&'(-'(.,&'),(.'(.7++,$"(/9"(&"(A%0'"( +%05( /9"( /,.5)7'./,$,( '&( 0,4,)( "( &X%O0"WW,(.'%$,( %..'*'&%4'&'( %( /,0+'(0'#'-'(( N! '( 1"$,*"$'( -X%O0'),( /,$.'-"0%5(.,$,(.,&%*"$)"( -'( 5+,( A'./,.,i(.,$,(.)%5( '+,5WW%5( %.."$5( 1"$,*"$'( -'( %O0'),(.)%5/,( "( -'( 5+,( (<7B>()1&$U1"$,*"$'($,$(&'$"%0'V(
>H.GV'"%D%XN"'5.+%.5.##+',"YI! 8(+#.%09:;%:R% R7%&'(.,$,(&"('+,)".'(-'( A%&'-')Q(-"&(*,-"&&,h(
>H.GV'"%J%X+.(##"+.%(O'#(#"YI! 8(+#.%09:;%:S% *,-"&&,(-'(7$(0"%O,0"(%(k(/,*+,$"$5( U)0%O,(-%Z(<;(!l-"0.)0l*;(H;(!),'/%;( 9%(!#3$C0#-<67*<'-V(( 7$(0"%O,0"(%#')%),( U-%()7j-0".-"$;-"V(
8(+#.%09:;%:T% U)0%O,(-%Z(<;(!l-"0.)0l*;(H;(!),'/%;(9%(!#3$C0#-<67*<'-V(( m"&(0"%o,0"(a"$#,$,(*"./,&%5(-7"( ]7'-';(C"(+,0)%)"(f J ("-(f k (.,$,( /,$)0,&&%)"()0%*')"(-"&&"(A%&A,&"Z( /,$.'-"0'%*,('(A%&,0'('.)%$)%$"'(-'( +,0)%)%(f J U)V("-(f k U)V(/,*"(.1E#%,,.(-"&(.'.)"*%;(( C"(/,$/"$)0%W',$'(/ J U)V("(/ k U)V('$A"/"( $,$(.,$,(*%$'+,&%4'&'Z(.,$,(7.,$D#9.;( ( T$_$"@(&%(+,0)%)%(-'(./%0'/,(fU)V("(&%( /,$/"$)0%W',$"(/U)V(.,$,(&"(D,-.$%(-"&(.'.)"*%;( C%(*'./"&%W',$"(-"'(-7"(/,*+,.5('$('$#0"..,(.'%(>1(!*-!*-#*D(U*,&),(0%+'-%V;(( H,..,(./0'A"0"(
>H.GV'"%LI%H'H#.G(%Z.,"5"O',"[!! 8(+#.%09:;%:U%!'.)"*%('-"%&'WW%),('$(/7'(A'(.,$,(-7"(.+"/'"(%$'*%&'Z( ( 6%.,(JV(&"(-7"(.+"/'"(/,*+"),$,(+"0(&,(.)"..,(/'4,(( ( 6%.,(kV(7$%(.+"/'"([(+0"-%("-(7$X%&)0%(+0"-%)0'/"( Numero istantaneo di individui per specie: Rate di nascita costanti: Individui nati per unità di tempo: Rate di mortalità (dipendenti dalla numerosità delle specie):
B"1.55"%1')(G',"!! 8(+#.%09:;%DW% br7%w;(-'(/,$."0a%w',$"z(a%0'%w',$"(-'($7*"0,.')q( $"&&X7$')Q(-'()"*+,(n($7*"0,($%./')"(=($7*"0,(*,05(
8(+#.%09:;%D:% 4(H"%:Y%5.%1/.%HV.,'.%,"GV.#")"%V.+%5"%H#.HH"%,'N"!! C%($7*"0,.')Q(-"#&'('$-'A'-7'(-")"0*'$%(&%(-'.+,$'4'&')Q(-'(/'4,("(R7'$-'('&( 0%)"(-'(*,0)%&')QZ(
4(H"%:Y! 8(+#.%09:;%DD%
8(+#.%09:;%DJ% 4(H"%DY%/)(%HV.,'.%\%V+.1(%.%5](5#+(%\%V+.1(#+',.%!7++,$'%*,(/9"(&%(.+"/'"(J(.'%(+0"-%)0'/"("(&%(.+"/'"(k(+0"-%Z(&%( -'.+,$'4'&')Q(-'(/'4,(+"0(&%(.+"/'"(J([(+0,+,0W',$%&"(%&&%($7*"0,.')Q(-"&&%(.+"/'"(k("(R7'$-'(&%(*,0)%&')Q(-"&&%(.+"/'"(J(-'*'$7'./"(%&(/0"./"0"(-"&&%( $7*"0,.')Q(-"&&%(.+"/'"(kZ(
4(H"%DY! 8(+#.%09:;%DL%
8(+#.%09:;%DQ% ^)(%,/+'"H'#_I%5'),.%7H%5.V+.% N! m7*"0,(-'(+"&&'(-'(&'$/"("(-'(&"+0"(%/r7'.)%)"(-%&&%(i7-.,$(\%8( 6,*+%$8(U6%$%-%V()0%('&(JoLd("-('&(JKpd( '**%#'$"()0%O%(-%(e+"$(g$'A"0.')8(((
>H.GV'"%QI%H'H#.G(%Z.,")"G',"[!! 8(+#.%09:;%DR%!'.)"*%("/,$,*'/,('-"%&'WW%),('$(/7'(.'(A7,&"(*,-"&&%0"(&X%$-%*"$),(-"&( +0,-,O,('$)"0$,(&,0-,('$(17$W',$"(-'(%&)0"(A%0'%4'&';( Prodotto interno lordo (PIL) nell anno : Consumi totali nell anno : Investimenti totali nell anno : Spese decise dal governo nell anno :
8(+#.%09:;%DS% G'A"0.'(*,-"&&'(.,$,(-'.+,$'4'&'("(/9'%0%*"$)"(.,$,()7P(%04')0%0'("-( %++0,..'*%5;(!"#7'0"*,(+"0(."*+&'/')Q(7$(*,-"&&,(q"8$".'%$,(/&%..'/,Z( Consumi nell anno proporzionali al PIL dell anno precedente : Investimenti nell anno proporzionali all aumento dei consumi:
8(+#.%09:;%DT% T&(#,A"0$,(9%(/9'%0%*"$)"(*,&5(*,-'(+"0(%7*"$)%0"('&(HTC;(H"0("."*+',( %7*"$)%$-,(&"()%.."(-'*'$7'./,$,('(/,$.7*'(((((((((((((,++70"( '$]7"$W%$-,((((((((((((((()0%*')"(%W',$'(.7'()%..'(-X'$)"0"..";( r7'('$a"/"(/,$.'-"0'%*,(&"(.+"."((((((((((((((/,*"(1%o,0"(-")"0*'$%$)"( +"0(/,$)0,&&%0"('&(HTC;(
Aumento di 1 di nell anno 1 8(+#.%09:;%DU%
8(+#.%09:;%JW% 4"H]F())"%')%,"G/).%O5'%.H.GV'%:`JP!!!! Le variabili sono reali a tempo continuo!! I modelli matematici sono costituiti da equazioni differenziali!! I modelli matematici sono stati determinati a partire dalle proprietà fisiche del sistema
8(+#.%09:;%J:% 4F.%V.,/5'(+'.#_%F())"%O5'%.H.GV'%L9Q%P!!!! Le variabili sono reali ma a tempo discreto!! I modelli matematici sono costituiti da equazioni alle differenze!! I modelli matematici sono stati determinati a partire dalle proprietà fisiche del sistema
K'H#.G'%1')(G','%(%#.GV"%,")#')/"!! 8(+#.%09:;%JD%!'.)"*%@(H0,/"..,@(T*+'%$),( H%0%*")0'(-"&(!'.)"*%( 3%0'%4'&"(-X7./')%(U17$W',$"(/,$5$7%(-"&()"*+,V( 3%0'%4'&"(-'(/,$)0,&&,(U17$W',$"(/,$5$7%(-"&()"*+,V( 3%0'%4'&"(-'(-'.)704,(U17$W',$"(/,$5$7%(-"&()"*+,V(
K'H#.G'%1')(G','%(%#.GV"%1'H,+.#"!! 8(+#.%09:;%JJ%!'.)"*%@(H0,/"..,@(T*+'%$),( H%0%*")0'(-"&(!'.)"*%( 3%0'%4'&"(-X7./')%(U."R7"$W%V( 3%0'%4'&"(-'(/,$)0,&&,(U."R7"$W%V( 3%0'%4'&"(-'(-'.)704,(U."R7"$W%V(
8(+#.%09:;%JL% 6VV+",,'"%Z(%H,(#"5(%N'(),([%V.+%5(%,"H#+/3'").%1'% G"1.55'%1')(G','I!! Leggi fisiche, conoscenze a priori, leggi euristiche, statistiche, ecc. Approccio modellistico a scatola trasparente Modelli dinamici (tempo continuo, tempo discreto)
8(+#.%09:;%JQ% 6VV+",,'"%1'**.+.)#.%X1(#(`N(H.1Y%Z(%H,(#"5(%).+([I!! Dati sperimentali, misure fornite da sensori, dati storici, ecc. Approccio modellistico a scatola nera Le variabili d ingresso, di uscita e di disturbo non saranno più rappresentate tramite funzioni continue del tempo ma tramite successioni numeriche i cui elementi sono i dati da utilizzare per determinare il modello dinamico
8(+#.%09:;%JR% 6VV+",,'"%G"1.55'H#',"%(%ZH,(#"5(%).+([% 01.)#'2',(3'").%1'%/)%H'H#.G(%1')(G',"% Dati: Modello a tempo discreto:!! sistema a tempo continuo e dati ottenuti per campionamento di variabili continue!! sistema a tempo discreto e dati ottenuti da variabili inerentemente discrete
8(+#.%09:;%JS% 8+'G"%.H.GV'"% Dati di un impianto da 120 MW per la produzione di energia a Pont-sur-Sambre (Francia) Fonte: De Moor B.L.R. (ed.), DaISy: Database for the Identification of Systems, Department of Electrical Engineering, ESAT/SISTA, K.U.Leuven, Belgium
8(+#.%09:;%JT%
6),"+(%/)%.H.GV'"% 8(+#.%09:;%JU% Un ora di traffico Internet tra il Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory ed il resto del mondo Fonte: De Moor B.L.R. (ed.), DaISy: Database for the Identification of Systems, Department of Electrical Engineering, ESAT/SISTA, K.U.Leuven, Belgium
^)%(5#+"%.H.GV'"% 8(+#.%09:;%LW%!+!% /096:612;,0<:,0/=,603123::;/-./17>/28!+!$!+!#!+!"!!+!"!+!#!+!$! "! #! $! %! &! '! (! )! *! "!!,-./0.,12,1.345617-8!+#!+"& 56-,=,603123::/15/::/1748!+"!+!&!!+!&!+"!+"&!+#! "! #! $! %! &! '! (! )! *! "!!,-./0.,12,1.345617-8 G%5(0%//,&5(-%(7$(.'.)"*%(4%&&(s(4"%*Z(%$#,&,(-X'$/&'$%W',$"(-"&&X%.)%(B0%-M(A.(+,.'W',$"(-"&&%(+%&&%(.7&&X%.)%(B*M;( ( f,$)"z(-%)%4%."(g%t!t;(
^)%/5#'G"%.H.GV'"%XV.+%"+(Y% 8(+#.%09:;%L:% 1400 1200 1000 portata [cm 3 /s] 800 600 400 200 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 giorno +,0)%)%( *"-'%( #',0$%&'"0%( -"&( G%$74',( %( G,$%7:l0)9@( -%&( JaJaJKou( %&( pjajkakvvl(=(1,$)"z(g$'a"0.')q(-'(wx0w470#(
8(+#.%09:;%LD% AN'.##'7"%1.55]'1.)#'2',(3'").%1'%H'H#.G'%1')(G','% 9.&&'-1*3'$01$4')#/$(!.01*/#$.-$!"!#$%&'(")&%"*+')+)')+#+'E-#)$(#-('$7"#$ -'-$-#$&'((#01*3'$.-$3'0#))'$*0*F'$*))'$(7'&'$7"#$71$(1*3'$&/#6((1GH$$ $!! [(+,..'4'&"(3."1.F-"#%("(-017D##%(7$(%,3%#.2%1$0(.7&(.'.)"*%@((!!.1$%#3#%$"#1%('&(#.,D4$"$0("-(!!,O"$"0"( 7$( 207%440& 2"$%2"5-0& 7%4&,.,$%2"@( *,-"&&,( /9"( 0'.7&5( %-"#7%),(%&&,(./,+,(U+0"-'W',$"@(_&)0%##',@(/,$)0,&&,Vh(
8(+#.%09:;%LJ% N! >)+)' )+#+?( Z(.'#$'_/%( /9"( %&( *,*"$),( $,$( [( -'.+,$'4'&"( 7$%( -"./0'W',$"( +0"/'.%( -"&(.'.)"*%( -'$%*'/,;( 6'S(.'#$'_/%( +"0( "."*+',( /9"( =! '&(.'.)"*%( [( )0,++,( /,*+&"..,( +"0( 0'7./'0"( %( -"./0'A"0"( /,*+&")%*"$)"('&(.7,(/,*+,0)%*"$),(%(+%050"(-%(&"##'(_.'/9"i( =! '&(.'.)"*%( +,)0"44"( /,*+,0)%0.'( '$( *%$'"0%( -'^"0"$)"( -%( R7"&&%( +0"A'.)%(-%&(*,-"&&,(*%)"*%5/,(".'.)"$)"@(+"0("."*+',(( N! +"0(7.70%a'$A"//9'%*"$),(-'(+%05@(( N! +"0( "^"O,( -'( '$)"0%W',$'( -'( /7'( '&( *,-"&&,( %O7%&"( $,$( 5"$"( /,$),( =! /X[( 4'.,#$,( -'( 7$( >47,$?( *,-"&&,( %++0,..'*%),@( /9"( /%O70'( '&( /,*+,0)%*"$),( -'( '$)"0".."@(."$W%( %++".%$50"( &%( -"./0'W',$"( )"$"$-,(/,$),(%$/9"(-'(%&)0'("^"P@(."/,$-%0'(+"0(&,(.)7-',(
8(+#.%09:;%LL% N! >$!,$-"%$)#+?( Z( 7$( 7"$0& #"--04$0& %&'*"$)%$-,( '&(.'.)"*%( /,$( 7$( +0".)%4'&'),(."#$%&"(-X'$#0"..,;(m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h(
8(+#.%09:;%LQ% N! >-017D##%?( &X".+"0'*"$),Z( [(,++,0)7$,( %4"90#"#%&.&,%E1"4.& U-X'$#0"..,( "( R7"&&'( 0%//,&5( /,*"( 7./')"( -"&(.'.)"*%V( +0'*%( -'( %$%&'WW%0&'( +"0( >'-"$5_/%0"( '&(.'.)"*%?( U/',[( -")"0*'$%0"( '&( *,-"&&,( *%)"*%5/,(-".'-"0%),Vh(!"(.y@('$(R7%&"(*,-,h( N! >.1$%#3#%$"#%&.4&#.,D4$"$0?Z(7$%(A,&)%(,O"$7),('&(*,-"&&,(*%)"*%5/,@( /,*"(1%0"(%(.)%4'&'0"(."('&(*,-"&&,(0'.7&)%(%//70%),("-(%z-%4'&"@(/',[( /,*"(1%0"(%(?"4.7"#%&.4&207%440h(
8(+#.%09:;%LR% ^5#.+'"+'%,")H'1.+(3'")'% N! T( *,-"&&'( '-"$5_/%5( /,$( &"( )"/$'/9"( >%(./%),&%( $"0%?( 9%$$,( A%&'-')Q( &'*')%)%Z(( =! A%&#,$,( +"0( 7$( 4"$( +0"/'.,( +7$),( -'( &%A,0,( -"&(.'.)"*%( U.)%),( -X"R7'&'40',V@(,++70"(+"0(7$(+%05/,&%0"(5+,(-'(."#$%&"(-X'$#0"..,( U%(./%&'$,@(.'$7.,'-%&"(*,$,j10"R7"$W'%&"@(*'{(-'(.'$7.,'-'("//;V( N! $,$( 1,0$'./,$,( %&/7$( -"O%#&',(.7( >/'S( /9"(.7//"-"( 0"%&*"$)"?( %&&X'$)"0$,(-"&(.'.)"*%( =! '( +%0%*")0'( -"'( *,-"&&'( $,$( 9%$$,( %&/7$(.'#$'_/%),( _.'/,@(.,$,(.,&,( >.)07*"$5?( 75&'( %( 1,0$'0"( 7$%( 47,$%( -"./0'W',$"( -"&( /,*+,0)%*"$),(/,*+&"..'A,(-"&(.'.)"*%( N!.,$,(0"&%5A%*"$)"(1%/'&'(-%(/,.)07'0"("(-%(75&'WW%0";(
8(+#.%09:;%LS% N! C%( U0"&%5A%V( 1%/'&')Q( -'( /,.)07W',$"( "( -X75&'WW,( 101( -"A"( 1%0( +"$.%0"( /9"( &%( +0,/"-70%( -'( '-"$5_/%W',$"( +,..%( ".."0"(.A,&)%( -"&( )7O,( '$( *,-,(%7),*%5/,( N! [($"/"..%0'%('$)"0%W',$"(-%(+%0)"(-"&&X75&'WW%),0"( =! 4'.,#$%(-")"0*'$%0"(7$%(.)07O70%(%++0,+0'%)%(+"0('&(*,-"&&,(-%( '-"$5_/%0"Z(+7S(".."0"($,$(1%/'&"(U+"0(".;(.'.)"*'(-'$%*'/'($,$j &'$"%0'@(,++70"(.'.)"*%(-'$%*'/,(&'$"%0"(*%(-'(,0-'$"($,$($,),YV( =! '(-%5(%/R7'.'5(-%&(>*,$-,(0"%&"?(.,$,(%^"P(-%(07*,0'a-'.)704';( 6,*"(1%0"(%()"$"0"(/,$),(-'(/'Sh( =! '&(+0,/"..,(-%(*,-"&&%0"(+,)0"44"(A%0'%0"($"&()"*+,;(6,*"(1%0"(%( )"$"0$"(/,$),h(
8(+#.%09:;%LT% ^)(%V+'G(%H.GV5',.%(VV5',(3'").I% G"1.55"%Z(%H,(#"5(%).+([%1'%/)% +'H,(51(#"+.%
8(+#.%09:;%LU% <'H,(51(#"+.%(1%'GG.+H'").% g$(0'./%&-%),0"(%-('**"0.',$"('**"0.,('$(7$(&'r7'-,( <"$.',$"('$(( '$#0"..,( <"*+"0%)70%(-"&( 0'./%&-%),0"( <"*+"0%)70%(-"&( &'R7'-,(
8(+#.%09:;%QW% "#$!%&'())*+,*-.!!!!!!!/0.+-10*.2&!).!,(2#(0.,10.!'*!#.0(,(!!(!+1##&3*.2&!*)!+*+,(2.! *+&).,&!.'.4.,*-.2(3,(5! +"0(7$(*,-"&&,(>%(./%),&%(4'%$/%?([(.7z/'"$)"(*,-'_/%0"(&X"."*+',(k;( 3,#&'%*,()0,A%0"(7$(*,-"&&,(."*+&'_/%),@(%(."#$%&'(/%*+',$%5@(/9"( +"0*"O%( -'( /%&/,&%0"( '&( A%&,0"( %O7%&"( -"&&%( )"*+"0%)70%( -"&( 0'./%&-%),0"( '$( 17$W',$"( -'( A%&,0'( +%..%5( -"&&"( #0%$-"WW"( %( -'.+,.'W',$"Z( (!! >%( 47,$(."$.,?( &%( A%0'%W',$"( -'( )"*+"0%)70%( -"&&X"&"*"$),( 0'./%&-%$)"()0%(-7"(/%*+',$'(.7//"..'A'(-'+"$-"(-%(!! C%(+,)"$W%("&"O0'/%('**"..%(!! C%(+,)"$W%()"0*'/%(./%*4'%)%(/,&(]7'-,(
8(+#.%09:;%Q:%!! C%(+,)"$W%("&"O0'/%('**"..%([(+0,+,0W',$%&"(%(!! C%(+,)"$W%()"0*'/%(./%*4'%)%(/,&(]7'-,([(+0,+,0W',$%&"(%( GH&I&D1&207%440&4.1%"#%&1%.&3"#"2%$#.J&
8(+#.%09:;%QD% B"1.55"%Z(%H,(#"5(%).+([%1'%/)% Z(H,'/O(,(V.55'[% N! &,(./9"*%(( -"&(-'.+,.'5A,( N! '&(-'.+,.'5A,(f""-4%/ (H<pkd( U1,),#0%_%()0%O%(-%( g$'a"0.'-%-(h,&')}/$'/%(-"( 6%)%&7~%(V(
8(+#.%09:;%QJ% N! 17$W',$%*"$),(-"&(-'.+,.'5A,( =! CX%0'%(A'"$"('$.7%)%('$(7$()74,(U#0%W'"(%-(7$( A"$5&%),0"(/9"('*+,$"(+,0)%)%(-X%0'%(/,.)%$)"V;( c&&x'$#0"..,($"&()74,(&x%0'%(a'"$"(0'./%&-%)%(u)0%*')"(7$( "&"*"$),(0'./%&-%$)"V("(&%()"*+"0%)70%(A'"$"('$_$"( *'.70%)%(-%(7$(."$.,0"(%&&X7./')%(-"&()74,;( =! T&(."#$%&"(*%$'+,&%4'&"(U'$#0"..,(7U)V(V([(&%(+,)"$W%( "&"O0'/%(1,0$')%(%&&X"&"*"$),(0'./%&-%$)"(BwMi( =! &X7./')%(*'.70%)%(U7./')%(8U)V(V([(&%()"*+"0%)70%(-"&&X%0'%( '$(7./')%(-%&()74,(BÄ6M;(
8(+#.%09:;%QL% N! 6,*"(+,)0"44"(".."0"(7$(*,-"&&,(%(>./%),&%(4'%$/%?h( =! /%./%)%(-'(k("&"*"$5(u'$(+0'*%(%++0,..'*%w',$"v( N!./%*4',()"0*'/,(%0'%a0".'.),0"Z(7$%(f-<(-"&(JÄ(,0-'$"( N! 0')%0-,(_$'),(U)0%.+,0),(-"&&X%0'%(-%&&X'$#0"..,( %&&X7./')%(-"&()74,Z(-'+"$-"(-%&&%(+,0)%)%(-X%0'%("( -%&&%(A"$),&%(=($,$(/%*4'%(-70%$)"(&X".+"0'*"$),V( N! H0,A%0"(%(-")"0*'$%0"(7$(+,..'4'&"(*,-"&&,(>%(./%),&%( 4'%$/%?(+"0("."0/'W',Å(
8(+#.%09:;%QQ% N! *,-"&&,(>%(./%),&%($"0%?('$(F%)&%4(U9%(!#3$C0#-<67*<'-$8'')5'IV(! load dryer2 % esperimento eseguito su dispositivo Feedback PT326! % riferimento: Ljung, "System Identification: Theory for the User", pag. 525!! z_ident = dati(1:300); % uso i primi 300 dati per identificare un modello! figure;plot(z_ident); % vediamoli!! 64*.- 7.-*.-89,-, '()*(+,-.+, & %"# % #"# # $"# $./0'+)(>".+"0'*"$),G08"0;*?( @)*A:-.>(!"#!& %"# 23-(45, % #"# # $"# $!"#! # /0 /# 10 1# ':)(8;<(=34><? /,$5$7%Y(
8(+#.%09:;%QR%!! model = arx(zid, [2 2 3]);% identifico un modello ARX! % na=2, nb=2, nk=3 (che cosa sono? cfr. Parti 9-12 e 19 del materiale)!!! /,$5$7%Y(
8(+#.%09:;%QS% % valuto il modello sui nuovi dati (applico l'algoritmo del modello sulla! % nuova sequenza u ed ottengo la risposta del modello)! ( #&" ' #!&"!!&" # ()*+,*-.'/01'2,/011, ()*+,*-.'2)*3(.-. #&" '! "! #!! #"! $!! $"! %!!
8(+#.%09:;%QT% 6+O"G.)#'%#+(##(#'%.%)")%(**+")#(#'%')%8(+#.%0% N! %0#,*"$5()0%O%5( =! '(+0'$/'+%&'(*"),-'(+"0(&X'-"$5_/%W',$"(-'(.'.)"*'(-'$%*'/'(&'$"%0'Z( *'$'*'WW%W',$"(-"&&X"00,0"(-'(+0"-'W',$"@(*%..'*%( A"0,.'*'#&'%$W%@(.'%(,^j&'$"(U*"),-'(4%)/9V(/9"(,$j&'$"(U*"),-'( 0'/,0.'A'V( =!./"&)%(-'(7$%(.)07O70%(0%#',$"A,&"(+"0('&(*,-"&&,("()".)(+"0(&%( A%&'-%W',$"(-"&(*,-"&&,()0,A%),( =! +'%$'_/%W',$"(-"#&'(".+"0'*"$5@('$#0"..'(*%$'+,&%4'&'( +"0.'.)"$)"*"$)"("//')%$5(
8(+#.%09:;%QU% N! %0#,*"$5($,$(%^0,$)%5( =! '-"$5_/%W',$"(%(/'/&,(/9'7.,(-'(.'.)"*'(-'$%*'/'(&'$"%0'( =! '-"$5_/%W',$"(-'(.'.)"*'(%(+%0%*")0'(-'.)0'47'5@(-'(.'.)"*'($,$j &'$"%0'( =! '-"$5_/%W',$"($"&(-,*'$',(-"&&%(10"R7"$W%( =!.5*%(-'(+%0%*")0'(+"0(.'.)"*'(-'$%*'/'(%()"*+,(/,$5$7,(