Lezione 2 I concetti fondamentali della microeconomia

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1 Facoltà di Ingegneria Elementi di Economia Applicata Lezione 2 I concetti fondamentali della microeconomia Prof. Giorgia Giovannetti giorgia.giovannetti@unifi.it Giorgia Giovannetti 1

2 Piano della lezione Ancora qualche elemento generale sull economia mondiale e i maggiori cambiamenti degli ultimi 20 anni (definizione di offshoring e outsourcing) Dietro l economia dell innovazione: importanza della R&S, ruoli degli ingegneri, PhD, etc I concetti fondamentali della micro prima parte

3 Negli ultimi 20 anni, lo scenario internazionale e cambiato (davvero?) Aumento del peso delle economie emergenti (Cina e India in particolare) sul Prodotto Interno Lordo (PIL) mondiale sul commercio mondiale sugli Investimenti Diretti Esteri (IDE) Quota paesi sviluppati su export e commercio mondiali scende mentre sale la quota economie emergenti (BRIC e NIE) La produzione internazionale viene frammentata (offshoring e outsourcing), anche grazie a banda larga e diminuzione costi

4 È indubbio che l attivitl attività economica si sia spostata ad est

5 E Cina e India stanno sorpassando I paesi del G6. UK Germany Japan US China Italy France Germany Japan India Italy France Germany Russia Italy France Germany Brazil G6 BRICs *cars indicate when BRICs US$GDP exceeds US$GDP in the G

6 A prezzi correnti il PIL della Cina e dell India aumenta ma è ancora lontano da quello dei paesi industriali USA EURO AREA CHINA JAPAN INDIA 35,0% 30,0% US 25,0% Euro Area 20,0% 15,0% Japan 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% China India Source: IMF WEO 2007

7 Digressione: PPP versus the Market: which weight? Two main methods of conversion One uses market exchange rates the rate prevailing in the foreign exchange market (using either the rate at the end of the period or an average over the period). The other uses the purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate the rate at which the currency of one country would have to be converted into that of another country to buy the same amount of goods and services in each country. To understand PPP, let's take a commonly used example, the price of a hamburger. If a hamburger is selling in London for 2 and in New York for $4, this would imply a PPP exchange rate of 1 pound to 2 U.S. dollars. This PPP exchange rate may well be different from that prevailing in financial markets (so that the actual dollar cost of a hamburger in London may be either more or less than the $4 it sells for in New York). This type of crosscountry comparison is the basis for the well-known "Big Mac" index, which is published by the Economist magazine and calculates PPP exchange rates based on the McDonald's sandwich that sells in nearly identical form in many countries around the world.

8 In China, for example, a McDonald s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijing and Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates. In America, the same burger averages $3.71 October 2010

9 Vantaggi della PPP A main one is that PPP exchange rates are relatively stable over time. By contrast, market rates are more volatile. Another drawback of market-based rates is that they are relevant only for internationally traded goods. Non-traded goods and services tend to be cheaper in low-income than in high-income countries. A haircut in New York is more expensive than in Lima; the price of a taxi ride of the same distance is higher in Paris than in Tunis; etc. Indeed, because wages tend to be lower in poorer countries, and services are often relatively labor intensive, the price of a haircut in Lima is likely to be cheaper than in New York even when the cost of making tradable goods, such as machinery, is the same in both countries. Any analysis that fails to take into account these differences in the prices of non-traded goods across countries will underestimate the purchasing power of consumers in emerging market and developing countries and, consequently, their overall welfare. For this reason, PPP is generally regarded as a better measure of overall well-being.

10 Svantaggi della PPP The biggest one is that PPP is harder to measure than market-based rates. The ICP is a huge statistical undertaking, and new price comparisons are available only at infrequent intervals. Methodological questions have also been raised about earlier surveys. In between survey dates, the PPP rates have to be estimated, which can introduce inaccuracies into the measurement. Also, the ICP does not cover all countries, which means that data for missing countries have to be estimated.

11 Si hanno risultati diversi? So how fast is the global economy growing? Using PPP, the latest WEO estimates that global growth was 5.1 percent in 2006, but only 3.8 percent at market rates. Who contributes more to global growth, China or the United States? Using PPP it's China. But using market rates, the United States wins out. Which country is richer, Canada or Switzerland? Even among advanced countries, the choice of weights can matter. Using market rates, per capita income in Switzerland exceeds that in Canada, but when PPP rates are used the situation is reversed.

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13 E fra paesi ci sono differenze incredibili. Riprendiamo le mappe

14 Abbiamo visto la mappa dove la dimensione è il PIL del paese (al 2000)

15 Una dove la dimensione rappresenta la proporzione della ricchezza nel paese, aggiustando il PIL per la Parità dei Poteri di Acquisto, 2002

16 Se invece la dimensione dei paesi dipende dalla popolazione, il quadro è ben diverso...

17 E vediamo che California e Francia hanno lo stesso reddito.

18 Come peraltro Italia e Qatar.

19 Offshoring: ExxonMobil Upstream: exploration in 37 countries and production in 26 countries Downstream: refining and marketing Owns 45 refineries, located in 25 countries Operates 37,000 retail sites in 100+ countries presence in about 200 countries

20 ExxonMobil s Upstream Sites

21 ExxonMobil s Downstream Sites

22 Offshoring,, definizioni

23 Offshoring: ora e in passato Ikea established production facilities in Poland in the 1970s Also service offshoring is not new In then 1980s Swissair had moved a lot of its accounting tasks in India City of London moved to India computer maintainance However in the last two decades strong increase

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27 Problemi dell Outsourcing

28 Dietro l economia dell innovazione Scoperte e innovazione sono molto incerte E difficile appropriarsene Una R&S efficiente può richiedere l intervento attivo dei decisori pubblici R&S conoscenza utile Le innovazioni spesso hanno molte complementarietà di input (joint R&D ventures, infrastructures networks, etc.) e output (prodotti futuri, etc.) Spesso c è path-dependence nei processi innovativi Giorgia Giovannetti 28

29 Dietro l economia dell innovazione La struttura di mercato influenza l innovazione (e viceversa) La proprietà intellettuale e industriale influenza la R&S e il processo innovativo. R&S e l innovazione non solo influenzano la crescita ma anche il mercato del lavoro e la distribuzione del reddito L innovazione può far aumentare le possibilità ma non tutti guadagnano L economia politica può determinare l innovazione nella società Giorgia Giovannetti 29

30 Dietro l economia dell innovazione Mentre molte fortune sono state create o rubando o introducendo un prodotto innovativo (normalmente per consumo di massa) 90% dei brevetti non produce alcun valore R&S e innovazione non sono strategie semplici per le imprese il finanziamento dell innovazione non è banale. E difficile collateralizzare il capitale della conoscenza Giorgia Giovannetti 30

31 Dietro l economia dell innovazione Ben lontano dall idea dell inventore isolato R&S e l innovazione coinvolgono in una certa misura l interna società Test per la salute della società! capire l economia della R&S e dell innovazione implica capire molti legami sociali e economici Giorgia Giovannetti 31

32 Dietro la teoria dell innovazione L unico problema è che l economia dell innovazione deve ancora andare molto avanti. Nello stesso tempo, l UE ha fissato un obiettivo molto alto per la società della conoscenza e per la R&S dell Europa. Giorgia Giovannetti 32

33 Ambizione o necessità? Concilio Europeo di Lisbona, 2000 trasformare l economia Europea nell economia della conoscenza più competitiva e dinamica nel mondo Concilio Europeo Barcellona, 2002 ha imposto un limite quantitativo: 3% del PIL per le spese di R&S Obiettivi non raggiunti (anche per la crisi economica finanziaria del ): Stiamo andando per la strada giusta alla velocità adeguata? Vediamo i dati Giorgia Giovannetti 33

34 A guardare i dati non sembra... Il gap con gli Stati Uniti aumenta Giorgia Giovannetti 34

35 Occupati in R&S Researchers Others Il gap dell Italia è enorme Finland Sweden (2001) Denmark Japan Luxembourg France (2004) New Zealand (2003) Russian Federation Norway Belgium Switzerland (2004) Australia (2004) Canada (2004) Germany Austria Netherlands (2003) EU27 (2004) Korea Spain Czech Republic Ireland Greece Slovak Republic Italy (2004) Hungary Poland Portugal South Africa (2004) Mexico Turkey (2004) China

36 Qualcuno sta chiudendo il gap Ricercatori / 1000 attivi * 2002* US Jp UE Fin Al Fr It Esp Port Chile Crescita annuale # ricercatori * Esp. 3,6%; UE 1,5% ; US 2,2% ; It. 1,15%; Fin. 5,8% Giorgia Giovannetti 36

37 La necessità di risorse umane Per raggiungere l obiettivo del 3% nel 2010 la CE aveva stimato che nella UE c era bisogno di: circa 1.2 milioni in più di personale di ricerca, incluso ricercatori addizionali Giorgia Giovannetti 37

38 Formazione di PhD in Scienza e Ingegneria (S&I), 2007 % Science Engineering Greece Chile France Ireland Sweden Canada Israel Estonia Belgium Czech Republic Iceland (2006) Slovenia Italy United Kingdom Finland Norway New Zealand Switzerland Austria Denmark Spain Australia Japan Slovak Republic United States Portugal Germany Korea Poland Netherlands Hungary Turkey Mexico In 2007, Brazil, China, India and the Russian Federation, taken together, trained half as many doctoral graduates as OECD countries, taken together.

39 International students as a percentage of all tertiary enrolments, 2007 Australia United Kingdom Switzerland New Zealand Austria Ireland nada ( ) Belgium OECD EU19 Czech Republic Denmark Sweden Iceland Netherlands Finland United States Hungary Japan Norway Spain Estonia Slovenia Slovak Republic %

40 Mobilita degli studenti di dottorato percentuale di chi ha passato periodi di studio all estero negli ultimi 10 anni % Total UE27 États-Unis Autres pays Chypre Danemark Espagne Belgique Autriche Portugal République tchèque Bulgarie République slovaque Pologne Lithuanie

41 EU19 Total university degrees United States Other Japan S&E doctorate degrees S&E university degrees Doctorate degrees

42 PhD stranieri negli USA Europe (excl. 3 biggest) Korea Chinese Taipei 442 Africa biggest European (Germany, France, UK) 400 South America (excl. Brazil), 386 Canada, 365 Turkey, 340 Otros Thailand, 251 Japan, 211 West Asia (excl. Turkey) Mexico, 206 Other East Asia, 190 Pacific-Australasia, 177 Brazil, 156 Other countries, 291 China 3 448

43 PhD stranieri negli USA- 2 S&E doctorates awarded to US citizens to foreign citizens with tem porary visas to foreign citizens with permanent visas S&E postdocs appointment to foreign citizens with temporary visas to foreign citizens with permanent visas or to US citizens West Asia Europe North / Central America South America Africa Pacific/Australasia

44 PhD in Scienze e Ingegneria in US Giorgia Giovannetti 44

45 I talenti stranieri Giorgia Giovannetti 45

46 Il PISA report sul rendimento scolastico The OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Studenti di 15 anni Test normalizzato su lettura, matematica e comprensione scientifica Nel 2009 in 87% della popolazione mondiale inclusa Giorgia Giovannetti 46

47 Performance nella lettura OECD (2007), PISA 2006 Science Competencies for Tomorrow s World, Figure 2.11b

48 Performance in matematica OECD (2007), PISA 2006 Science Competencies for Tomorrow s World, Table 6.1c

49 Performance in science OECD (2007), PISA 2006 Science Competencies for Tomorrow s World, Table 6.2c

50 Performance vs. PIL Giorgia Giovannetti 50

51 Performance vs. Spese per studente Giorgia Giovannetti 51

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53 Change in science performance between 2006 and 2009 Science performance improved Science performance declined

54 Employer enterprise birth rate (2006) and death rate (2005) in the manufacturing sector % 18 Birth rate Deat h rat e Norway Austria Sweden Spain Slovenia Luxembourg Israel Denmark Finland New Zealand United States Hungary Italy Brazil Portugal Slovak Republic Estonia Canada

55 Employer enterprise birth rate (2006) and death rate (2005) in the services sector % 18 Birth rate Deat h rate Norway Israel Slovenia United States Austria Sweden Slovak Republic Finland Brazil Spain New Zealand Hungary Canada Italy Denmark Luxembourg Estonia Portugal

56 Government budget appropriations or outlays for R&D, 2007 Spain United States Korea Finland Canada ( ) France Sweden Iceland Netherlands Portugal Austria Italy ( ) Norway Slovenia Czech Republic Germany Denmark United Kingdom Ireland Poland Luxembourg Belgium Hungary ( ) Slovak Republic Greece OECD countries stimulus packages for science, R&D and innovation ranged from 0.1% to 0.3% of GDP

57 Government budget appropriations or outlays for R&D by selected socioeconomic objectives, United States OECD (2007) France United Kingdom Korea Spain EU27 Sweden Australia Germany Japan Norway Slovak Republic Canada (2007) Poland Finland Czech Republic Netherlands Italy Greece (2007) Hungary Switzerland (2006) Denmark Portugal Belgium Austria Iceland Ireland Luxembourg Mexico (2006) New Zealand % Defence Economic development Health and environment Non-oriented General University Funds Other

58 Business enterprise expenditure on R&D, 2008 Israel Sweden ( ) Finland Japan ( ) Korea Switzerland ( ) United States Singapore Denmark Austria Germany OECD Iceland Belgium Luxembourg ( ) France Australia ( ) EU27 United Kingdom Slovenia China ( ) Canada Ireland Czech Republic Netherlands Norway ( ) Portugal Spain Russian Federation Italy South Africa ( ) Hungary New Zealand ( ) Turkey Slovak Republic Poland Mexico ( ) Romania Greece ( ) Argentina ( ) % 5

59 Direct and indirect government funding of business R&D and tax incentives for R&D, 2007 % Indirect government support through R&D tax incentives Direct government funding of BERD 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 United States (2008) France (2008) Korea (2008) Czech Republic Spain Sweden Austria Finland Norway (2008) Germany United Kingdom (2008) Iceland (2008) Belgium Luxembourg Denmark (2008) Hungary Australia (2006) Ireland New Zealand Italy Switzerland (2008) Japan Turkey Slovak Republic (2008) Netherlands Canada (2008) Portugal Poland Mexico Greece (2005)

60 Italy Italy Average GERD as % of GDP HRST occupations as % of total employment BERD as % of GDP Science & Engineering degrees as % of all new degrees Venture capital as % GDP Researchers per thousand total employment Triadic patents per million population % of GERD financed by abroad Scientific articles per million population Patents with foreign co inventors % of firms with new to market product innovations (as a % of all firms) % of firms collaborating (as a % of all firms) % of firms undertaking non technological innovation (as a % of all firms)

61 Italy - Science and engineering degrees, 2009 Germany France Spain Japan United Kingdom Italy OECD average Israel Norway United States China (2005) %

62 Spain Spain Average GERD as % of GDP HRST occupations as % of total employment BERD as % of GDP Science & Engineering degrees as % of all new degrees Venture capital as % GDP Researchers per thousand total employment Triadic patents per million population % of GERD financed by abroad Scientific articles per million population Patents with foreign co inventors % of firms with new to market product innovations (as a % of all firms) % of firms collaborating (as a % of all firms) % of firms undertaking non technological innovation (as a % of all firms)

63 UK United Kingdom Average GERD as % of GDP HRST occupations as % of total employment BERD as % of GDP Science & Engineering degrees as % of all new degrees Venture capital as % GDP Researchers per thousand total employment Triadic patents per million population % of GERD financed by abroad Scientific articles per million population Patents with foreign co inventors % of firms with new to market product innovations (as a % of all firms) % of firms collaborating (as a % of all firms) % of firms undertaking non technological innovation (as a % of all firms)

64 US United States Average GERD as % of GDP HRST occupations as % of total employment BERD as % of GDP Science & Engineering degrees as % of all new degrees Venture capital as % GDP Researchers per thousand total employment Triadic patents per million population &D expenditure of foreign affiliates as % R&D expenditure Scientific articles per million population Patents with foreign co inventors AAGR patents Business funded R&D in the HE and GOV sectors Share of services in business R&D

65 1. Questo corso... Diverse prospettive (storica, macro, micro, mercato, impresa, legal, scientific, political economy & public policy) Approcci diversi (storico descrittivo analitico, case cases ) Metodi (lezioni, dibattiti, papers) Obiettivi: capire (i) la complessità dell economia, (ii) importanza dell economia dell innovazione, (iii) come si può scommettere sui tassi di cambio; (iv) importanza del contesto (incertezza/certezza); (v) analisi costi benefici (vi) leggere le pagine economiche dei giornali.. Giorgia Giovannetti 65

66 Cenni di microeconomia Elasticità Costo di produzione Massimizzazione del profitto Concorrenza perfetta Monopolio Discriminazione di prezzo Teoria dei giochi

67 Elasticità Misura della sensibilità di una variabile rispetto a un altra. Esempio: la domanda si riduce all aumentare del prezzo. Ma di quanto? ELASTICITA della domanda al prezzo: Variazione % di Q in risposta a +1% di P

68 E P = (% ΔQ D ) (% ΔP) E P = ( ΔQ D / Q D ) ( ΔP / P) = E P = P Q D ΔQ ΔP D

69 Elasticità della domanda: determinanti Il bene è sostituibile? E un bene necessario? E un bene complementare ad altri? Solitamente l elasticità della domanda di mercato dipende dalla definizione del mercato stesso: definizione ampia = domanda più rigida definizione ristretta = domanda più elastica

70 E P = P Q D ΔQ ΔP D

71 Casi estremi

72 Iperbole: elasticità costante (=1)

73 Concorrenza perfetta: curva di offerta Elasticità dell offerta: determinanti Flessibilità nell uso dei fattori e della tecnologia, per rispondere in modo rapido a variazioni del prezzo di mercato Presenza o assenza di fattori specifici in quantità limitata o altri vincoli di capacità E P = (% ΔQ O ) (% ΔP) 0